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VOA [Voice of America] Global English : March 21, 2020 06:00PM-07:00PM EDT
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Closed captions transcript:
00:00:04
This is video way News I'm David Berg u.s.
00:00:08
President Donald Trump shocked to reassure
Americans that his administration is
00:00:12
working to fight the corona virus outbreak
including ramping up the manufacture of
00:00:17
protective gear for medical professionals
we get more from a.p.s. Saager Magon e.
00:00:23
In a now daily appearance in the White House
Briefing Room the president said it's
00:00:26
a time of shared national sacrifice rule
one beautiful big American family which
00:00:31
will celebrate
00:00:32
a great victory in the not so distant
future amid his optimism New Jersey's Phil
00:00:38
Murphy became the latest governor ordering
residents to stay home he's urging other
00:00:43
states to keep the virus from going across
their borders it becomes even more vital
00:00:48
that we all speak with one voice as the
president spoke flights to New York City
00:00:52
area airports were suspended for about
00:00:55
a half hour due to virus related staffing
issues at an air traffic control center
00:01:00
the Senate meantime is in a rare
weekend session racing toward
00:01:03
a mammoth economic stimulus bill and I
think we're getting very close solderer
00:01:07
Magni Washington North Korea on
Saturday welcomed what it said was
00:01:11
a letter from u.s.
00:01:12
President Donald Trump to North Korean
leader Kim Jong un saying it was
00:01:17
a sign of the quote special and very pert
firm personal relations between the 2
00:01:22
leaders despite recent frictions North
Korean state media said Kim received
00:01:26
a letter from Trump in which the Us
president said he was impressed by Kim's
00:01:32
efforts to defend his
people from the coronavirus
00:01:35
a senior Trump administration official
confirmed the president sent the letter
00:01:39
calling it consistent with his efforts to
engage global leaders during the ongoing
00:01:44
pandemic sense drop held
00:01:46
a 3rd summit with Kim last June and
briefly stepped into North Korea from the
00:01:51
demilitarized zone with South Korea
no progress has been made on the u.s.
00:01:55
President's bid to get Pyongyang to give
up its nuclear and missile programs this
00:02:01
is v.o.a.
00:02:02
News. Italy's death toll from the coronavirus
has leapt to more than 4800 the new
00:02:08
number came as the government closed
all parks and banned its citizens from
00:02:13
venturing outdoors except for essentials
like food Matthew Lera tundra of Reuters
00:02:18
has details all parks will be closed
people cannot leave their homes even for
00:02:23
exercise now the worst hit region the
military is now joining police to enforce it
00:02:29
people can only venture outside for essential
needs like food to make matters worse
00:02:34
the death toll may actually be far higher
than official tallies the mayor of the
00:02:39
most badly hit city bergamot in the
country's north has reportedly said that he
00:02:44
believes it may be as much as 4 times as
high in his town mayor told the Huffington
00:02:49
Post that elderly are dying at home without
testing so the true numbers may be
00:02:54
under reported other town mayors in the
area have told the same general also in the
00:03:00
country's north a cruise
ship is be repurposed as
00:03:03
a hospital ship off the overflowing medical
wards That's Matthew lever atoned of
00:03:09
Reuters Jordan sounded air raid sirens and
Iran's death toll continued to climb as
00:03:16
countries across the Middle East sought to
stem the outbreak of coronavirus in one
00:03:21
of the strictest measures yet Jordan has
ordered all shops to close and people to
00:03:25
stay off the streets until at least Tuesday
when it plans to announce specific
00:03:30
times for shopping another $123.00 people
died of covert $1000.00 in Iran bringing
00:03:36
the country's overall total to more than
$1500.00 Egypt announced that all museums
00:03:43
in archaeological sites including the famed
pyramids at Giza would be closed from
00:03:47
Monday until the end of March and Syria
said it was also suspending recruitment as
00:03:53
well as penalties for those of voiding
mandatory conscription into the army until
00:03:58
April 22nd. Singer Kenny Rogers
00:04:01
a Grammy winning balladeer who spanned
jazz folk country and pop has died he was
00:04:08
81 a.p.
00:04:09
Correspondent Julie Walker has this look
at his career you got to win Kenny Rogers
00:04:16
died at home in Georgia of natural causes
according to his representative the
00:04:20
performer with the husky voice and silver
beard sold tens of millions of records
00:04:25
won 3 Grammys and was a star t.v.
00:04:27
Movies based on the gambler
and 2015 he told the a.p.
00:04:30
About his class over music I could never
be better than Johnny Cash or Willie or
00:04:35
wailing at what they did so I found something
that I could do that didn't invite
00:04:39
comparison to them and I think people
thought it was my desire to change them for
00:04:44
music but that was never my issue I'm jus
block and we're going to keep For more on
00:04:50
these stories and the rest of the day's
news be sure to log on to v.o.a.
00:04:55
News dot com I'm David for video
00:04:58
a nuke. This is Encounter on
00:05:05
the v.o.a.
00:05:06
Here's Carol Castillo. Welcome to Encounter
on The Voice of America on this edition
00:05:13
of the program and update on Iraq Hello
again I'm Carol Castiel before we get into
00:05:19
our topic because of the coronavirus and
need for social distancing in the United
00:05:24
States my current affairs
team has been asked to tell
00:05:28
a work that is work from home more frequently
which may prevent us from providing
00:05:33
you our dear listeners with fresh encounter
Press Conference USA and issues in the
00:05:38
news programs on
00:05:39
a weekly basis we will be doing more
interviews by phone and that may reduce audio
00:05:45
quality we may also have to run on core
programs from time to time nonetheless we
00:05:50
want you to know that despite the difficult
days ahead and technical shortcomings
00:05:55
my colleagues Ken Lewis Rick Panta Layo and
I will work hard every day to bring you
00:06:01
our 3 news analysis programs to the best
of our ability and we thank you for your
00:06:06
understanding now to our encounter topic
Iraq we will be looking at the ongoing
00:06:11
consequences of the Us targeted assassination
in January of Iranian general custom
00:06:17
Soleimani playing out on Iraqi soil the
state of Iraqi politics in light of Iraqi
00:06:23
president Barham Saleh is nomination of
Shia politician. To be the country's next
00:06:29
candidate for prime minister and the
impact the coronavirus is having in that
00:06:34
fragile country lethal attacks on u.s.
00:06:37
Troops by Iran backed Iraqi militias
during the month of March demonstrate that
00:06:41
Iran continues to retaliate
for the January 3rd u.s.
00:06:44
Killing of top Iranian commander. According
to Michael Knights an analyst with the
00:06:50
Washington Institute for Near East
Policy early on March 13th u.s.
00:06:55
And British aircraft conducted multiple
airstrikes on the missile storage sites of
00:06:59
the Iraqi militia group
that died. Hezbollah
00:07:02
a pro Iranian group that was also hit by
unclaimed airstrikes in Syria the day
00:07:07
before until earlier that week when
00:07:10
a rocket attack killed 2 Americans and one
British service member at Camp Taji base
00:07:15
in Baghdad there hadn't been much noise
from Tehran since its reprisal in early
00:07:20
January after the assassination of Qassam
Soleimani so contrary to the trumpet
00:07:26
ministrations allegations that his assassination
would deter terrorist attacks Iran
00:07:31
has in fact shown its determination
through its proxies to exact revenge the
00:07:36
renewal of hostilities playing out on Iraqi
soil has increased tensions between the
00:07:40
United States and Iraq which has been
unable to form a permanent government amid
00:07:45
a deadlock between pro Iranian
factions seeking to expel u.s.
00:07:49
Troops from Iraq and Sunni and Kurdish
leaders seeking to preserve an American
00:07:54
presence Well joining us by phone to
analyze the current state of play in Iraq
00:08:00
against the backdrop of the covert 19 spread
are 2 distinguished regional analysts
00:08:06
Saad Hong homicide is director of
Middle East Programs at the u.s.
00:08:10
Institute of Peace and ran the slim is
director of the conflict resolution and
00:08:16
track 2 Dialogues program at the Middle
East Institute Saad Hong Welcome to the
00:08:22
program thank you for
00:08:23
a bit to be back and on this lame Welcome
to you thank you Carol good to be with
00:08:28
you well let me begin with Assad Hong What
is your take Assad hang on this tit for
00:08:33
tat missile strikes between the United
States and Iranian backed Iraqi militias in
00:08:38
the backdrop of this delicate political
state of play in Iraq now that President
00:08:43
Saleh has gone ahead and nominated this
Shia politician. To be the country's next
00:08:49
candidate for Prime Minister Well what
is happening is that both sides United
00:08:55
States and Iran have always been clear to
Iran have always declared that they want
00:09:00
the United States in Florida. In the
Middle East do standing wants u.s.
00:09:04
Troops out and presence of u.s.
00:09:06
Troops in Iraq especially now that the
military defeat of ISIS has been declared
00:09:11
for them it's a threat
they want to push the u.s.
00:09:14
Out and what aggravated matters the killing
of General Hossam so they money in
00:09:19
January and deputy commander of the
lead mobilization forces with strong
00:09:24
affiliations the Iran of all my Mohammed
is being killed on Iraqi territories in
00:09:28
just a bit that more and the u.s.
00:09:31
On the other side has always declared that
should there be casualties among u.s.
00:09:35
Personnel the u.s.
00:09:36
Will take action and defend itself and we
have seen now head for tat and that side
00:09:41
of this is that this is happening on Iraq
00:09:43
a territory something that the Iraqi
people and the Iraqi leaders have always
00:09:48
wanted to avoid not having their country
to become the battleground for direct or
00:09:52
indirect u.s.
00:09:54
And Iran competition attached
and the designation of
00:09:58
a Member of Parliament at Nona's or
00:10:00
a few now to become the prime minister
designate comes and very difficult time when
00:10:05
the states for tat is happening between
the United States and Iran and at the
00:10:09
moment we're Iraq's relationship with the
United States also strained over these
00:10:14
attacks and other matters and there's also
disagree in and among the Shia about who
00:10:18
they want to be prime minister and the
public mostly This satisfied with the status
00:10:25
quo of the political class and the
previous prime ministers they have been
00:10:29
objecting that Karen for many and others
so Iraq right now is in the middle of
00:10:34
a very complex situation
that has to do with the u.s.
00:10:38
And Iran and the covert 19 that you referred
to in your remarks and this complex
00:10:43
political situation let me turn now to
that and the thing for your take on the
00:10:47
current situation Donda anything to add or
subtract to what song said I agree with
00:10:52
Mark to us in fact all of what had
said I think it up now has been hit by
00:10:57
a perfect storm I don't want to hand you
have got all of itis and then me which has
00:11:01
. Hit it off so far 154 people are
registered by the Ministry of Health to be
00:11:07
infected with about 12 deaths so you have
the 1000 pandemic on the one hand for
00:11:13
which in fact they don't health care system
is really not equipped to handle to do
00:11:18
Cade's of mismanagement and corruption and
due to the flight to of capable medical
00:11:23
personnel over the last decade from Iraq
so that's one you have tumbling gold
00:11:29
prices because an old price war that's
taking place now between Russia and Saudi
00:11:34
Arabia which will have huge and long term
impact on the Iraqi economy 90 percent of
00:11:40
that have been used in the docking budget
spent on that oil exports to give you an
00:11:44
example the 2020 Iraq
00:11:46
a budget was put together on the
assumption that all it is is at
00:11:52
$56.00 today it's selling for less
than $25.00 so if this oil prices
00:11:58
sustain Iraq and not
00:12:00
a public sector salaries in the future
cannot keep its power plants running and
00:12:05
cannot finance
00:12:06
a lot of development project in education
health care and other services the 3rd is
00:12:12
something that said Honk the 1st 2 and you
talked about in your intro which is this
00:12:16
to put that which is going on between the
United States and Iran back to you know
00:12:21
community shares and which do not seem to
have an agenda and we are likely to see
00:12:25
more of that going forward and then you
have this political but Alice's witch hunt
00:12:30
talked about that is now
00:12:31
a new pm designate Mr Hudson as Sophie who
by the way is if you will United States
00:12:36
and Iraq National Now if he would have
shown the policy has to give up his
00:12:41
citizenship according to the last blow
anyway he is known to be inefficient to
00:12:46
manager he used to be twice governor
of the province of measure he is now
00:12:51
a member of parliament so he's known to
have good managerial skills however we're
00:12:56
already have heard from
00:12:58
a number of Iraqi parties especially those
that are affiliated with the. On Like
00:13:02
the block which is the 2nd largest
parliamentary bloc and parliament basically
00:13:08
voicing that opposition to the process by
which Mr as sort of he was nominated but
00:13:13
missed it but have thought if they duck
president nominating him but also voicing
00:13:17
their opposition to him as prime minister
designate because of this perception
00:13:22
within that can inside
Iraq of him being pro u.s.
00:13:26
Well thank you both for setting the scene
for us back to you songs homicide with
00:13:32
respect to the tit for tat and the political
paralysis How can the United States
00:13:38
respond to these provocations without
derailing what could be seen as
00:13:43
a potentially positive development so I've
made some assumptions there do you see
00:13:48
the nomination of sort of see as relatively
positive and do you think that he can
00:13:53
bring the factions together and can the
United States hold back in terms of the tit
00:13:59
for tat going forward what we are
witnessing today is primarily because the
00:14:05
government of Iraq has not been able to
rein in armed groups that have been staging
00:14:11
these attacks and that has been
00:14:12
a primary criticism from the United States
towards the government of Iraq and has
00:14:17
been the primary criticism from political
actors in Iraq and from Iraqi citizens
00:14:21
that's the core of the issue with the
Iraqi state being unable to control those
00:14:27
actors and prevent those attacks and the
degree of control varied under different
00:14:32
prime ministers of the current caretaker
prime minister may be considered their
00:14:36
weakest in terms of his ability to reign
in those armed groups but similar
00:14:40
criticism existed under the former prime
minister Dr about you so unless the
00:14:46
government of Iraq is strengthened and the
prime minister and institutions of the
00:14:51
state are able to exercise their prevention
of such attacks and when they have and
00:14:55
they bring perpetrators to
justice as long as the u.s.
00:14:59
Is present on the ground it will be. Force
to defend itself and its personnel and
00:15:04
respond to attacks that happened and that's
exactly what some of these actors and
00:15:09
Iran want to do is to pull the us into that
confrontation so that they use that as
00:15:14
excuse to push the u.s.
00:15:16
Out through the avenues of control
that they have whether it's
00:15:18
a parliament or through security forces the
other is that it serves Iran and those
00:15:24
groups to take attention away from the mass
demonstrations that were happening for
00:15:28
the past 5 months and that they are demanding
to end the influence of Iran and they
00:15:33
are demanding reforms in the government
fighting corruption and better elections
00:15:37
early elections so for now I think the best
that you have can do is try to minimize
00:15:42
those that support that's where possible
and continue to help and work with the
00:15:47
political process to have
00:15:48
a prime minister that can push the
political process forward and it's only
00:15:53
partially about the person who becomes
the prime minister because Iraq has
00:15:56
a political class problem not
a prime minister problem and
00:16:00
a political class they have diverging
interests and they have an interest 1st in
00:16:04
keeping the status quo which the people
do not like the 2 regional countries like
00:16:08
Iran and those countries and flaunts and
that often works against the interests of
00:16:13
the United States and the
Iraqi people so there is
00:16:16
a difficult situation that requires careful
management that's why elections is an
00:16:21
important factor if the
election is based on
00:16:23
a good law that allows more neutral actors
to come into the political space and
00:16:28
represent Iraqi interests and for real
try to prevent Iraq from being the
00:16:33
battleground for staging attacks against
the United States or others in the country
00:16:38
that is not more of
00:16:39
a long term bet strengthening that
institutions of the state the rule better
00:16:43
election better candidate higher political
participation from the people and this
00:16:48
will require the international community
to be really engaged and the entire chain
00:16:52
of the electoral process to have the
confidence of the people to participate that's
00:16:56
the longer again back to you and sort of
hang with her to the protests we know that
00:17:01
started last. We're widespread protests by
many communities predominately the Shia
00:17:06
community protesting against corruption
monopoly over power and the lack of
00:17:11
interest in sharing greater power your take
on what this prime minister could do if
00:17:16
he is ratified Adnan although defeat is he
00:17:19
a unifier and what is the balance of
power between these 2 factions those
00:17:23
parliamentarians who back Iran and those
who would like to maintain good relations
00:17:28
with the United States and at the same time
not antagonize obviously it's important
00:17:33
neighbor Iran as soon as he was officially
animated missed it as Sophie posted on
00:17:38
his Facebook account a
message which included
00:17:41
a series of promises and pledges one of
these pledges is to conduct the election
00:17:47
within a year's time and
00:17:48
a 2nd pledge is to respond to
the Protestants you met it's
00:17:53
a pledge is to get into the sovereignty of
Iraq and to try to bring all the weapons
00:17:59
under the control of the state I mean
we have heard this from previous prime
00:18:03
minister as well as the last you know me
who faded to gain the confidence of the
00:18:08
parliament and so as such angst said the
that this movement now is about 6 months
00:18:13
old you know it started in October and was
happening as you mentioned primarily in
00:18:20
Shiite majority areas and it was the most
of the broadest activist if not the great
00:18:25
majority of them religiously devout Shia
and despite that we have not seen division
00:18:32
within the political class and usually in
countries like Iran or like Lebanon or
00:18:37
someone else where you have
00:18:39
a political class that has interests on
preserving the status called the political
00:18:45
system as it is in the way they have
divided the spoils of the system among
00:18:49
themselves and how to preserve their
respective shares in the system through that
00:18:54
patronage networks or through that access
to different ministries budgets or
00:18:59
through the employment opportunities. That
control of certain ministries provided
00:19:04
to each of these different political parties
so what we have seen in Iraq is that
00:19:08
despite the 6 months of
protests despite quite
00:19:11
a wide eyed say level of support from
the Iraqi population that large for the
00:19:17
demands of the protesters which are
demanding for the less corruption but that
00:19:22
management better services which is expected
of every citizen to demand of their
00:19:27
government we have not seen this political
indeed the fooling class divided and by
00:19:32
remaining united they had not been as many
opportunities as we could see if they
00:19:38
were divided for the protesters to mine
these divisions and to create spaces for
00:19:44
them to be able to contest the political
space or to create opportunities for them
00:19:49
to contest the political space we have
not seen that happen and they the main
00:19:53
united around the president's vision of the
status quo and so going forward if this
00:19:58
broad minister who is
00:19:59
a product of the state school after all he
might come with all these lofty pledges
00:20:04
but he still is
00:20:05
a product of the post 2000 cities state
school and also he shares the interests of
00:20:10
the ruling class of preserving the status
quo so at some point he's going to clash
00:20:15
with them but the stars who have been
demanding an overhaul of the state the school
00:20:19
told the change of the rules of the game
that have been put in place after 2003 by
00:20:25
the United States and eventually by every
Iraqi government that was put in place
00:20:29
after that and so it's going to be hard for
him on one hand to win the trust of the
00:20:34
protesters and on the other hand it's going
to be in my opinion difficult for him
00:20:39
to try to change or to carry this mission
of changing a status quo of which he is
00:20:45
a product that's assuming he's able to
win the confidence of Parliament exactly
00:20:50
thing going for him is that right now
there's going to be more groups for his
00:20:55
candidacy than the last I think Mr residency
from what you have heard so far in
00:21:00
terms of reaction to the nomination. Is
that you have some groups within the Shia
00:21:04
community opposed to him specially the
pro Iran group but also you have other
00:21:08
groups within the Shia community and the
shout but it is who are supporting him you
00:21:11
have the Sunnis many of whom are supporting
him and you have fought hard of the
00:21:16
Kurds are supporting him and more probably
most of the Kurds would support him if
00:21:21
he would agree with them on that share
of the ministries and the budget going
00:21:25
forward depending on the
negotiation and so he might have
00:21:28
a better chance going forward given alliance
that right now had come together to
00:21:33
support him but still he has
00:21:35
a very tough job ahead of him and it's going
to be very hard for the Protestants to
00:21:39
accept if you're listening to Encounter on
The Voice of America my guests are. He's
00:21:45
director of Middle East
Programs at the u.s.
00:21:48
Institute of Peace and run the slim She's
director of the conflict resolution and
00:21:52
track 2 Dialogues program at the Middle
East Institute were discussing the state of
00:21:56
play in the very important nation of Iraq
which has great implications for the
00:22:01
region and the world and both panelist
joined me by phone in keeping with our new
00:22:06
regulations to stop the spread
of the corona virus this is
00:22:10
a reminder that our encounter podcast
is available on our website at v.o.a.
00:22:14
News dot com slash encounter and you may
also follow us on Twitter or connect with
00:22:18
us on Facebook at Carol Castiel v.o.a.
00:22:21
Here's
00:22:21
a shout out to our very loyal listener
Nelson from Ghana and we just want to advise
00:22:27
you as well that we will be giving you
updates communicating with you via Facebook
00:22:32
and Twitter to supplement our broadcasts
so back to our guests as we conclude the
00:22:37
program and sorry Hong Kong we're going to
talk about Iran and then the us quickly
00:22:42
Iran what does Iran want to mean it is
overwhelmed by the coronavirus by Coleridge
00:22:47
19 they are worrying about the sanctions
which are preventing them from getting
00:22:51
dire medical equipment and treatment yet
they are still backing these militias in
00:22:57
Iraq trying to hit the u.s.
00:22:59
For its assassination of Qassam Salema. Any
and trying to get the us to depart What
00:23:04
are they trying to achieve and can they
do it right well I think if it that's the
00:23:08
trillion dollar question or the wrong one
but I think it's as far as we can know
00:23:12
quickly from just what the articulated
they want the us out of the Middle East
00:23:17
terms of military power and less influence
offices harder to achieve the reality
00:23:21
that they get on with the 2nd they want to
preserve the advances they have made in
00:23:25
Iraq and Syria and Lebanon and in the Amman
and 3rd they want to wait out and sold
00:23:32
after the elections to
see if they can have
00:23:34
a different conversation with the United
States however the economic pressure
00:23:38
they're under and the implications of call
that 90 May change that of course we do
00:23:43
not know so far from these attacks they
continue to signal that they are not giving
00:23:47
up Ok And one more question then I'll let
Rand conclude what would you recommend
00:23:51
Saddam hung that the United States do to
stabilize and improve relations with Iraq
00:23:56
after all their relationship
is critical u.s.
00:23:59
Troops have been there to aid in the fight
against the remnants of the so-called
00:24:02
Islamic state which still has sleeper cells
and the ideology continues to attract
00:24:06
followers so notwithstanding the defeat of
the territory we're still in that fight
00:24:11
also keeping
00:24:13
a Ronnie means what would you recommend
that the United States do now my
00:24:17
recommendation for the United States and
all the friends of Iraq is that they work
00:24:21
together with one voice so the European
allies and others because what is good for
00:24:26
Iraq there is
00:24:26
a common interest was the interest of the
Iraqi people and the United States and
00:24:30
the friends of Iraq and speaking with one
voice for the political class to take
00:24:34
this moment seriously that they have
serious political economy exceptional and
00:24:38
security issues they need to resolve so
that the international community does not
00:24:43
have to go and bail out Iraq in terms of
fighting another church group or another
00:24:47
round of violence and displacement and all
of that so speaking with one voice with
00:24:52
the Iraq is important 2nd I would recommend
that do not adopt an idea mindset of
00:24:57
forcing Iraq out on either war if you force
Iraq to say Ok You either choose. The
00:25:02
United States or Iran they cannot make
that choice Iran is their neighbor their
00:25:06
influence on the ground is the real I think
helping Iraq to set its free from the
00:25:12
malign influence is that we to
go and that's what elections is
00:25:16
a central piece to that and working with
the United Nations to do that is key
00:25:20
harnessing this positive energy among the
Iraqi youth which struck present the
00:25:24
biggest transformation the Iraqi society
since 2003 are the things to focus on and
00:25:30
around the slim you get the last word Look
I think in terms of hit on I think that
00:25:34
main objective has always been since
Saddam Hussein was removed by the u.s.
00:25:40
Invasion of Iraq that they want to
make sure that Iraq will never present
00:25:45
a source of threat to Iraq Saddam Hussein
was that threat had an 88 ward with it on
00:25:51
and so his removal by the u.s.
00:25:53
Occupation created an opportunity
for Iran to call for itself
00:25:58
a big role in Iraq in politics and what
importantly what the Iran has been doing
00:26:03
since the ISIS war in 2014 is to work
with these militias known as the
00:26:10
popular Malaysian forces who played
00:26:12
a very important role in fighting ISIS
we cannot discount that but that is
00:26:16
a problem with
00:26:17
a group of them which are extremely loyal
to it on and which controls pretty much
00:26:23
by Iran and there are some of these groups
that are conducting these at that on.
00:26:29
Hosting this coalition forces and they
too they have been 25 rocket strikes on
00:26:35
Iraqi bases as well need the u.s.
00:26:38
Embassy in the Green Zone in Iraq since
last fall that some of these strikes 3
00:26:42
dates with a man is scaling in January of
this year and so this has been part of
00:26:48
a strategy by Iran as sudden
onset to drive the u.s.
00:26:52
Out but more importantly is also to
create discord within the popular
00:26:57
monopolization forces that ought not mean
the under the control of the adopted.
00:27:01
Sense ministry but they are really not
beholden to the office of the prime minister
00:27:06
and they are still been controlled or on
the decision making of Iran and they want
00:27:11
to entertain this as an independent force
inside Iraq to make sure that there would
00:27:16
be no governments in the future in Iraq
that will make every decision to go to war
00:27:21
against Iran or to be
00:27:22
a source of that you know that's the main
objective of you know on what can the
00:27:26
u.s.
00:27:26
Do I think I agree with most of what that
Hunt said I think it's very important for
00:27:31
us to capitalize on the future of Utah
and diffuse these broad sisters are the
00:27:36
future of Iraq and so the more that we can
work with them the last thing we should
00:27:40
do is to make them seen as being
pro u.s. Actors or being u.s.
00:27:46
Allies Iraq brought to stars who are there
to shape the future of that country they
00:27:52
need to be enabled to Iran geography after
all dictate facts and then they need to
00:27:57
not to be beholden to Iranian interests
that the audit arc interest which sometimes
00:28:02
that version of it on and most
importantly what the u.s.
00:28:05
Needs to do going forward is to
look at Iraq through the Iraq
00:28:09
a lens until now our policy vis
00:28:12
a vis Iraq especially under this
administration has been through the maximum
00:28:15
pressure that's in Iran
unless we have not had
00:28:18
a policy that's really about us Iraq
relations and that is defined and shape in
00:28:24
dialogue by Iraqis and by Americans it's
more about how can we deal with Iraq or
00:28:30
how can we work with Iraq and how can it
all work with us to defeat Iran and to put
00:28:36
more of the maximum pressure on Iran I'm
afraid that's all the time we have I'd
00:28:40
like to thank my guests are Hong homicide
lead director of Middle East Programs at
00:28:43
the u.s.
00:28:44
Institute of Peace and roundest lame director
of the conflict resolution and track
00:28:48
2 Dialogues program at the Washington based
Middle East Institute thank you so much
00:28:53
both of you for joining me by phone thank
you thank you relive your encounter was
00:28:57
produced in Washington our engineer was Joe
Gill And I'm Carol Castillo. Thank you
00:29:02
once again for tuning in and for understanding
our programming limitations due to
00:29:06
coronavirus coming up on the science edition
of Press Conference USA with host is
00:29:12
a special episode about the coronavirus and
Co with 19 with former director of the
00:29:16
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Dr Thomas Frieden mean time listeners
00:29:20
please take care stay safe and healthy
and if you have access to the internet
00:29:24
please check out our Facebook page
Facebook dot com slash v.o.a.
00:29:29
And our Twitter feed at v.o.a.
00:29:31
For alerts and program updates and join us
again next week for another encounter on
00:29:37
the Voice of America.
00:30:03
V.o.a. The science edition of Press
Conference USA here's your host battle
00:30:09
a. Welcome to the science edition of
Press Conference USA I'm Rick Banta Layo
00:30:16
on today's program we are going to talk
about what's on everyone's mind these days
00:30:20
the coronavirus pandemic that sweeping the
world but before we get into our topic
00:30:26
because of the coronavirus and the need for
social distancing in the United States
00:30:31
our current affairs team of v.o.a.
00:30:33
Has been asked to telework that's work
from home more frequently this may prevent
00:30:38
us from providing you with fresh programs
like Press Conference USA encounter and
00:30:43
issues in the news on
00:30:44
a weekly basis we will be doing more
interviews by phone and that may reduce the
00:30:49
audio quality of our programs we may also
have to run encore programs from time to
00:30:55
time however we want you to know that
despite the difficult days ahead and
00:31:00
technical shortcomings my colleagues Carol
Castiel Kim Lewis and I will work hard
00:31:05
every day to bring you our 3 news analysis
programs to the best of our ability and
00:31:11
we do thank you for your understanding
with 19 or coronavirus 2019 is the name of
00:31:17
the disease that's caused by
00:31:19
a novel or new corona virus that has never
before been detected in humans according
00:31:24
to the National Institutes
of Health coronaviruses are
00:31:27
a large family of viruses that usually
cause mild to moderate upper respiratory
00:31:33
tract illnesses like the common cold those
who have tested positive for Cove and 19
00:31:38
have ranged from having very mild symptoms
with some reporting no symptoms to those
00:31:43
severe with illnesses that result in death
concern over the spread of covert 19
00:31:49
continues to touch virtually every aspect
of daily life national regional and local
00:31:54
government leaders have put unprecedented
policies into effect to help mitigate the
00:31:59
spread of covert 19 the pan. Demigods
affecting the global economy throwing the
00:32:04
world's financial markets into
00:32:06
a period of extreme volatility and
uncertainty governments and international
00:32:10
organizations are planning to implement
significant measures to help offset the
00:32:14
potential economic impact of the pandemic
people are encouraged to practice
00:32:19
something called social distancing which
Johns Hopkins University defines as
00:32:24
a public health practice that prevents
sick people from coming into close contact
00:32:28
with healthy people to reduce opportunities
for disease transmission This means
00:32:33
that schools are closing with some offering
online education instead of classroom
00:32:38
education in many parts of the world scores
of restaurants and theaters have closed
00:32:42
their doors with New York's Broadway dimming
its lights until at least April 12th
00:32:47
major sporting events have been canceled
or postponed the world's religions have
00:32:52
been affected by the pandemic with many
closing their churches mosques synagogues
00:32:57
and temples to the public and offering
online or televised additions of their
00:33:01
religious services today will talk about
covert 19 the corona virus that causes it
00:33:07
what medical science is learning about it
efforts being made to mitigate the spread
00:33:12
of the disease and what we may expect in
the future my co-host for today's program
00:33:17
is v.o.a.
00:33:18
Health reporter Carole Pearson and our
featured guest for today's program is Dr
00:33:22
Thomas Frieden m.d.
00:33:24
Dr Frieden is an infectious disease and
public health physician he is currently
00:33:29
President and c.e.o.
00:33:30
Of resolve to save lives and initiative
that has been established to prevent
00:33:35
epidemics and cardiovascular disease
from 2009 to 2017 Dr Frieden served
00:33:42
as director of the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention in Atlanta Georgia
00:33:47
and before that it was commissioner of
the New York City Health Department Dr
00:33:51
Frieden Can you please take us back to the
start of this cove in 1000 crisis how
00:33:56
did the virus develop and then initially
spread. Out. Is that emerged in
00:34:03
China around November of last year and
then spread ultimately from Bath host
00:34:10
through some intermediate animal supposed
possibly or probably to what's called
00:34:16
a wet market or an market where exotic
animals are sold for food this is the same
00:34:22
way the stories virus spread 17 years
earlier from China no one's certain what is
00:34:28
certain is that this is unprecedented
never before has there been
00:34:32
a brand new virus including Does this but
other than into ns and brand new virus
00:34:38
that has emerged in one part of the world
and to come up and Demick all over the
00:34:42
world and yet there are people who say
that this virus was manufactured in
00:34:47
a lab and then let loose and it's one of
the rumors how do we know that that's not
00:34:52
true there are many rumors about viruses
and I feel that as with many different
00:34:57
microbes sunlight is the best disinfectant
getting information and making it
00:35:02
clearly and openly available will allow
that kind of rumor to be accessed there are
00:35:07
genetic fingerprint of the virus that
according to the viral exists who know this
00:35:12
best suggests that this is not
an engineered virus this is
00:35:16
a naturally occurring virus
00:35:18
a very much like some that occur in nature
and this is how SARS spread in 2003 so
00:35:25
the weight of evidence now certainly
suggests that something like
00:35:28
a wet market from
00:35:29
a natural source in the way that this
is most likely to have spread to other
00:35:35
theories or concerns or have pocket his
though should be looked at openly and
00:35:39
transparently so that sunlight can disinfect
that women I know no vaccines have
00:35:44
been developed at this point to prevent the
confection Dr Anthony found she says it
00:35:48
may be 18 months or so before one is
available for general distribution What are
00:35:53
your thoughts on that there are things
that we can do ready canal every one of us
00:35:58
needs to wash our hands more cover our cost.
Not infect others if we get ticked and
00:36:04
stop shaking hands for
00:36:06
a while people who are medically vulnerable
older people what's underlying health
00:36:11
conditions where this is spreading in
the community really need to isolate
00:36:15
themselves from others to protect themselves
health care facilities need to learn
00:36:20
to surge safely that means improving Infection
Prevention and Control getting ready
00:36:26
to treat large numbers of people with just
00:36:28
a mild illness and also getting ready to
veer situation to have to treat people
00:36:35
who need support for breathing with
ventilators or oxygen in society as
00:36:39
a whole we need to think about social
distancing and increasing the distance
00:36:45
between people canceling unnecessary meetings
and other large gatherings and making
00:36:51
sure that we continue to learn more about
this virus so we can do more about it one
00:36:57
thing is that we may have a
treatment in the months weeks or
00:37:00
a month and that could
occur and then it will be
00:37:03
a question of getting it to people back
seen development is very challenging and
00:37:09
though there are promising candidate that
means we have no guarantee that about 15
00:37:14
will become available and if
it does it will be at least
00:37:18
a year or 2 from now so we absolutely have
to do everything in our power to try to
00:37:23
get
00:37:23
a vaccine but we can't depend on it and
there's no certainty that we'll have it we
00:37:27
don't know that there will be
00:37:29
a safe and effective vaccine available
but we certainly hope that will be Dr
00:37:33
Freeman You mentioned the social
distancing and I understand
00:37:36
a number of people who are undergoing
self quarantine when you're talking about
00:37:40
both what kind of period of time are we
talking about how long does it Yeah great
00:37:46
question we have no idea how long it will
continue in China they had hundreds of
00:37:51
millions of people stay home and they just
gradually would be opening the economy
00:37:57
and society right now and they're doing
such extensive work. It doesn't look like
00:38:03
outside of the province of the bay where
this started it doesn't look like there's
00:38:07
command
00:38:07
a virus so there people can go about
their business carefully and it's an arc
00:38:11
sponsored try to convene them but we don't
know what will happen in the future
00:38:15
Anyone who tells you with confidence they
know what's going to happen with his
00:38:19
fires doesn't know enough about this virus
there is one doctor at the University of
00:38:24
Maryland who looked at where the corona
virus was breaking out and the temperatures
00:38:31
of the regions where it was
breaking out and he just published
00:38:35
a study saying that in his opinion according
to the numbers he saw this should
00:38:42
mitigate it should kind of disappear as it
gets warmer in these regions to we know
00:38:47
a little bit more about every look we've
looked at that study and we don't find it
00:38:52
convincing hypotheses it could be
better when it gets warmer but that's
00:38:58
a guess there's no evidence to support that
gas this virus is new to the world and
00:39:03
when you look at influenza it behaves very
differently in tropical climates from 10
00:39:09
to requirements in tropical climate it
spreads all year round so there's no flu
00:39:14
season but there's
00:39:15
a lot of new all year round and if we look
at other Karuna viruses other similar
00:39:21
viruses one of them at least has
00:39:23
a peak both in the winter and in the summer
so only kind we can hope for the bad
00:39:29
but more importantly we have to work for
the best and we have to plan for the worst
00:39:34
and our suggestion that Africa is in some
way in using to this disease which we've
00:39:39
seen on social media is very dangerous
because there's no evidence that that's the
00:39:44
case and in fact we're beginning to see
that in Africa where they're looking for it
00:39:48
which is the case is that this disease
is more severe among older people and so
00:39:53
societies that have
00:39:54
a smaller proportion of people who are
elderly many have more difficulty
00:40:00
identifying it on less. Good custom Why
do some countries seem to have fewer
00:40:05
reported cases than others and how is
the sponsible there are several things
00:40:09
happening 1st this is spreading very
rapidly around the world but it's not
00:40:14
spreading even though it's more in some
places I've been in others partly because
00:40:19
travel patterns and partly because of
events that may allow it to spread very
00:40:25
widely as happened in South Korea in one
community also in different parts of the
00:40:31
country there has been
00:40:33
a lot of different parts of the world so
when we look around the United States and
00:40:37
around the world we see
places that don't have
00:40:40
a lot of diagnosed cases some of the places
are looking and not finding and don't
00:40:45
have it yet others of them simply aren't
looking so we don't know yet but certainly
00:40:50
they came in the United States today is
that anyone with severe pneumonia should be
00:40:55
tested for this so we can understand
what's happening we also need to really
00:41:00
protect congregate facilities places
like nursing homes where this can spread
00:41:05
explosively hospitals prisons homeless
shelters these are all the locations where I
00:41:11
didn't mean like this can really reach
havoc Dr Frieden you said that if you have
00:41:17
severe pneumonia you should be tested but
I had drifted to that by the time you
00:41:22
have severe pneumonia this virus has
damaged your lungs is that too late and
00:41:29
there's been a lot of confusion
about the testing if
00:41:33
a community is trying to contain the virus
that is find every single infection and
00:41:38
stop them and testing is very important if
00:41:41
a community doesn't know that kind of virus
is there and testing very important to
00:41:46
find out when it comes in if some and ill
with Kareena that is it's very ill it's
00:41:52
important to test them so that they can be
cared for safely and rolled in clinical
00:41:56
trials that we can understand more about
the nature of this disease and there are.
00:42:01
Very important because the
detectives at the need me
00:42:04
a large investigation that need to be done
in order for us to learn more about the
00:42:10
virus so we can do more
diet but in contrast in
00:42:15
a community where the virus is spreading
widely and it has become difficult or
00:42:20
impossible to find all of the chain the
transmission and texting has much more
00:42:25
limited role. Unfortunately I think the
situation in several communities in the
00:42:31
United States now early on when it's good
when you try to find every case but where
00:42:37
it starts making widely in
00:42:38
a community you have to devote your
resources to doing as much good as you can
00:42:43
protecting people as much as you can I had
read that some Taiwanese experts said if
00:42:49
you do this in the morning but take
00:42:51
a deep breath hold your breath for more
than 10 seconds and if you can do that
00:42:55
without coughing without discomfort without
stiffness or tightness in your chest
00:43:01
then there's no fibrosis in your
lungs and they also recommend taking
00:43:05
a few sips of water say your mouth and
throat stay more east and because if you
00:43:10
don't drink enough water the virus can
enter your windpipe and then get into your
00:43:14
lungs What do you recommend
this is well you know there's
00:43:18
a lot of rumor going on on the Internet I
think it's important that we focus on the
00:43:23
things that we have reasonable evidence
maids are going to help wash your hands
00:43:29
regularly Tarver your mouth and nose when
you cough or sneeze or you cover it with
00:43:34
crook of your elbow or with the tissue
that you then throw out don't go out if
00:43:38
you're sick or if you do go out and you're
sick where that stop shaking and don't
00:43:44
go to mass gatherings these are things that
we know are likely to be kept you on to
00:43:50
protect others if they're older my mother
is not on my advice you taking long
00:43:57
walks outside and watching
00:43:59
a lot of movies and reading books not
in. In with others in spreading in the
00:44:04
community where she lives Gunter
I'm curious how long does
00:44:08
a corona virus infection last how long could
we if someone is infected and there's
00:44:12
displaying symptoms of the corona virus
how long can they expect to be under the
00:44:16
weather from the Corona virus it may happen
elsewhere suggests that we're not and
00:44:23
people who get action will have either
no symptoms or moderate symptoms and may
00:44:29
feel better mimics and Lossing
roommates about for as long as
00:44:32
a few weeks with people with severe illness
1st thing relatively long course and
00:44:38
we're seeing people get
sick from aggressively over
00:44:42
a bottle home game 7 to 10 days and you
know basic who were very weak and then
00:44:48
recovered very groggy so
who are people here it's
00:44:53
a long struggle to deal
with it sounds like
00:44:56
a recovery time of pneumonia
little more bottle. X.
00:45:02
Ray was one of the long term
that. Quite prominently.
00:45:09
Pintu a quarter from let's take
00:45:12
a break now you're listening to the science
edition of Press Conference USA on The
00:45:16
Voice of America I'm
Rick Pantoliano Here's
00:45:20
a reminder that press conference USA is
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00:45:25
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00:45:28
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00:45:34
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00:45:39
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00:45:40
For alerts send program updates we will
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00:45:46
with you and to supplement our broadcasts
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00:45:51
But make no mistake we will go out of our
way to serve you and bring you as many
00:45:56
fresh programs whether Press Conference
USA encounter or issues in the news so.
00:46:01
Please bear with us during these difficult
days now back to the science edition of
00:46:07
Press Conference USA Today
we're talking about covert 19
00:46:11
a corona virus that causes it what medical
science is learning about it efforts
00:46:16
being made to mitigate the spread of the
disease and what we may expect in the
00:46:20
future my co-host today is the away health
reporter Carol Pearson and our featured
00:46:26
guest is Dr Thomas Frieden m.d.
He is president and c.e.o.
00:46:31
Of resolve to save lives and initiative
that has been established to prevent
00:46:35
epidemics and cardiovascular disease Dr
Frieden previously served as director of
00:46:41
the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention in Atlanta Georgia and as the
00:46:45
commissioner of the New York City Health
Department Dr Frieden I'm curious to know
00:46:50
how cool that 19 especially the more serious
cases is being treated in hospitals
00:46:56
and other medical facilities Well 1st and
foremost you need to be treated safely
00:47:01
every coming in with cough or short
that need to be needed at the isolated
00:47:09
and we need to ensure the health care workers
are picked acted and getting back 2nd
00:47:15
we need to make sure that care is as
effective as possible and right now it's
00:47:21
what's called support for. People
to do whatever possible to support
00:47:28
the breathing patients who have severe
pneumonia and that may mean supplemental
00:47:32
oxygen that maybe meaning which is
00:47:36
a way of actually meeting the
blood or putting someone on
00:47:39
a ventilator this is something which in
many low and middle income countries isn't
00:47:44
widely available and even in the
most advanced cities in the world
00:47:49
a bad outbreak of planning
00:47:51
a virus could overwhelm capacity health
care facilities to provide ventilator
00:47:57
support to people who option the u.s.
00:48:01
Is. About 2 weeks behind Europe which is
the current area where it's spreading
00:48:07
rapidly does the closeness of where people
live in Europe in Atlanta thinking of
00:48:14
Italy we've seen pictures of people singing
from their balconies does that have any
00:48:20
impact on how easily the virus can spread
what we've seen is manifest gathering
00:48:27
being potential places where a lot of
people can spread and we still don't know
00:48:32
a lot about the patterns and spread but
certainly when people are placed together
00:48:37
and mixing closely there's
00:48:40
a potential of lack of spread that's why
it's so important that people who are out
00:48:44
of or Steve don't go out and they go
out there or hospital do so safely
00:48:51
covering their mouth and know
Dr Frieden we've been talking
00:48:55
a little bit about the least Carol when
you have been shown to the nightmarish
00:48:59
condition in Italy how did things get so
out of hand so quickly one of the really
00:49:04
striking features about Corona
virus is how rapidly it moves with
00:49:11
colleagues we've recently reviewed the
evidence and will be publishing it this week
00:49:16
on what are called super spreading. And in
those events large numbers of people get
00:49:22
infected in
00:49:24
a short period of time are and what we
find is that to prevent those events you
00:49:30
really need to act very vigorously within
about one week in order to limit them
00:49:37
than that and does it help like in the
United States schools are closing people the
00:49:43
federal government for the most part is
now teleworking Are these the sorts of
00:49:49
things that will buy you some time there
are certain things that certainly make
00:49:53
sense kind of working reducing math gatherings
going to tell a meeting schools are
00:50:00
a much more complex. Good issue although
there remains investable pressure to close
00:50:06
the schools it's not necessarily going to
have the thing impact this is because all
00:50:12
the children get inspected because fires
it's not millions with based spread it to
00:50:18
add to this is
00:50:19
a different influenza we think Lou and
kids are an important source and spread at
00:50:25
the time it's into song and
if you click schools for
00:50:29
a couple of months you may be able to knock
down the number of cases of influenza
00:50:34
by as much as 40 percent but we don't
know whether about the case here with
00:50:40
coronavirus and for all of these
steps what's key is to balance the
00:50:47
projected cost not just economic but also
societal against the potential health
00:50:53
benefits of taking that action so while
there are schools closing that may not
00:51:00
always be indicated or maximally effective
to protect society and of course schools
00:51:06
have many. Important social functions
in addition to education and when kids
00:51:13
are out and their. Parents can't work so
there are lots of things to consider with
00:51:19
this and it's really an explanation of cost
estimates from family Dr Frieden going
00:51:25
to ask you your personal opinion here what
is your reaction to the public health
00:51:29
response to the spend Demick Mrs on press
about. Other them to them that which
00:51:35
spreads each year we've never seen
00:51:38
a new virus emerge and then spread around
the world it has already been more
00:51:45
destructive than any infectious disease
event since the 19181919 influenza
00:51:52
pandemic the most destructive
infectious the event in more than
00:51:58
a 100 years. One of the things that I wish
we would do more and I hope that we do
00:52:04
more very quickly is to learn
more about how the virus spreads
00:52:11
whether it's spread from children and
asymptomatic people what works best to
00:52:17
protect health care workers so that we
can target all interventions and be as
00:52:23
effective as possible and. That means that
public health departments need to be in
00:52:29
the lead on the response figuring out
what works communicating that effectively
00:52:35
with the public and doing investigations
so that we can learn more and more to
00:52:42
protect people Dr Frieden you've mentioned
the 1918 flu epidemic have we learned
00:52:46
any lessons from that that we're applying
to this current pandemic there has been
00:52:51
a lot of planning around and then mix
how to address them how to mitigate the
00:52:57
impact and that's the playbook that many
groups and countries are now using to
00:53:03
respond to this coded 19 pandemic so that
planning has been very helpful but every
00:53:09
infectious disease is going
to be different and requires
00:53:12
a different approach and that's why getting
information as quickly as possible and
00:53:17
using that information to track people is
so critically important this occur around
00:53:22
a virus the novel one is very similar
I understand to the SARS coronavirus
00:53:29
that broke out again in China some
years ago could this possibly be just
00:53:35
a mutation of that. This has some relation
to the starting pirates but it's not
00:53:41
that closely related in
that sense than it is not
00:53:44
a descendent that there is what we know
is that coded is both more infectious
00:53:51
and less deadly than the Stars this we
don't know how much more in taxes and how
00:53:57
much less deadly it can the same family
unlike SARS it doesn't look like we're
00:54:03
going to be able to stop this and make it.
So we need to figure out how to manage
00:54:08
it how to mitigate and reduce the harm
it causes house on societal harms Dr
00:54:15
Frieden like Kovac 19 the 1st reported
case of SARS was reported in November and
00:54:21
2002 the w.h.o.
00:54:23
Had announced that it had been contained
by July 2003 do you think the world health
00:54:28
officials will be able to contain coded 19
within the same period. You know so when
00:54:34
you think it will peak. Well I think no
one can predict when it's that easy but
00:54:42
it does look like containment
that is getting it completely
00:54:49
out of society may not be possible
it has spread so widely with so
00:54:55
many chains of transmission that unlike
SARS coded looks like it may not be able to
00:55:01
be seen at this point so we're going
to have to do whatever we can to
00:55:08
reduce the impact on societies particularly
societies which have limited health
00:55:13
services need to protect it's not services
that we can reduce the societal harms
00:55:20
and also reduce the risk that other corps
of thinking hands will get distracted
00:55:25
children need to get back when they need
to get reproductive health care people
00:55:30
with chronic to really need to get them
treated people who have crashes and other
00:55:34
injuries need to have been attended to all
of these things need to continue while
00:55:39
cold it is with us I was talking
to a doctor at the u.s.
00:55:44
Food and Drug Administration and she was
saying that she would like to see you know
00:55:50
. Testing for like 10000
people on a random basis in
00:55:55
a particular community just to see because
we don't know how widespread this virus
00:56:01
is we don't know who has it but doesn't
show symptoms who has it but the symptoms
00:56:07
are so mild they don't even notice do you
think that that would be helpful at all.
00:56:13
There are
00:56:14
a few epidemiologic investigations that are
very much one of them is to test people
00:56:20
with what is known as the wind like illness
or code that there are surveillance
00:56:27
networks for you to learn to like illness
in. More than $100.00 countries around
00:56:33
the world and those networks need to be in
our being repro caged to track the cause
00:56:38
of the 2nd. People who are
severely ill with hospitalization
00:56:45
need to be tested to code to see if
they've got it and 3rd we need to do
00:56:51
special studies studies
that. Will. Determine
00:56:58
came to live how widely spreading whether
they are in symptomatic cases however we
00:57:03
don't yet have
00:57:04
a blood test only test we have.
Through the merits of the
00:57:11
Joe swab on that test is not 100
percent accurate false negatives so
00:57:18
we need to look very carefully to see what
happens here Dr Frieden we're almost out
00:57:24
of time is there anything specific that
you want to tell our audience about the
00:57:28
Potomac this is
00:57:30
a severe pandemic and it's frightening
but it's important to remember that most
00:57:36
people who get coded will do well each
90 percent of those infected have mild
00:57:41
moderate or no symptoms. There will be far
too many people who have severe illness
00:57:46
and tragically too many will die from it
and although the Karuna virus and Demick
00:57:53
though certainly get worse before it gets
better it will get better and even in the
00:57:59
worst of the 10 Demick many people and
no one knows what proportion will get
00:58:02
infected and those who do get infected
$99.00 out of $100.00 get recovered so it's
00:58:09
responsible to make Porton to be proactive
now and limit the Hardings of covert 19
00:58:14
but it's also good to keep in mind that it
will pall Dr Frieden I want to thank you
00:58:20
so very much for taking time out of your
busy schedule to talk with us and share
00:58:24
your wonderful insights into this
pandemic. Thank you very much. And I'm
00:58:31
afraid that's all the time we have for
this science addition of Press Conference
00:58:35
USA My guest was Dr Thomas Frieden
m.d. President and c.e.o.
00:58:41
Of resolve to save lives and initiative
that has been established to prevent
00:58:45
epidemics and cardiovascular disease he
was also the director of the Centers for
00:58:50
Disease Control and Prevention and
commissioner of the New York City Health
00:58:54
Department I'd like to thank my colleague
and co-host for this program v.o.a.
00:58:59
Health reporter Carole Pearson the science
edition of Press Conference USA was
00:59:04
produced in Washington our studio technician
today was eminent I'm Rick thanking
00:59:10
you once again for listening and for
understanding our programming limitations due
00:59:15
to the coronavirus time to you our dear
listeners please take care stay safe and
00:59:22
stay healthy and please join Carol
Castillo again next week for another press
00:59:26
conference USA on The Voice of America.
01:00:04
This is video a new I'm David Bird u.s.
01:00:07
President Donald Trump says
there's no need right now for
01:00:11
a national shutdown even as another state
ordered its residents to stay home
01:00:16
a peace agreement Ghani reports New Jersey
governor Phil Murphy says it pains him
01:00:21
but he's telling all 9000000 residents
not to go out California New York and
01:00:26
Illinois among other. I have done the same
and Murphy's urging other governors to
01:00:31
follow suit we cannot run the risk of
residents from one state simply moving their
01:00:36
parties or their shopping habits across
state lines the top administration has been
01:00:42
knocking down Facebook posts
and text messages that
01:00:45
a National Corn team is coming the president
says States and Middle America may
01:00:49
only have a few cases and don't
need to lock down it may be
01:00:53
a time I hope that never happens where
we need to take very drastic action but
01:00:57
right now that's not in the same ballpark
Saager Magni Washington negotiators from
01:01:03
Congress and the White House
have resumed top level talks on
01:01:07
a ballooning one trillion dollar plus
economic rescue package the Senate convened
01:01:12
a rare weekend session with the aim of
drafting the package Saturday holding
01:01:17
initial vote on Sunday and winning
passage on Monday Majority Leader Mitch
01:01:22
McConnell said that everyone must act in
the country's best interest or for not
01:01:27
a political opportunity this is the national
apart it's time to come together by
01:01:34
analyze the results of our bipartisan
discussion and then close us up treasury
01:01:40
secretary Stephen Minucci and began
negotiations with McConnell Senate Democratic
01:01:45
leader Chuck Schumer and senators from
both parties using McConnell's g.o.p.
01:01:50
Offer as
01:01:51
a starting point for more on these stories
and the rest of the day's news visit our
01:01:56
website v.o.a. News dot com This is v.o.a.
01:02:01
News. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti
says that businesses should close all
01:02:08
operations excluding essential supply
chain businesses due to the coronavirus
01:02:15
as Matthew lever atoned of Reuters reports
Italy's government has already closed
01:02:20
all parks and banned its citizens from
venturing outdoors except for essentials all
01:02:25
parks will be closed people cannot leave
their homes even for exercise now the
01:02:30
worst hit region the military is now joining
police to enforce it people can only
01:02:35
venture outside for essential needs like
food to make matters worse the death toll
01:02:40
may actually be far higher than official
tallies the mayor of the most badly hit
01:02:45
city bergamot in the country's north has
reportedly said that he believes it may be
01:02:50
as much as 4 times as high in his town mayor
told the Huffington Post that elderly
01:02:56
are dying at home without
testing so the true number.
00:00:04
This is video way News I'm David Berg u.s.
00:00:08
President Donald Trump shocked to reassure
Americans that his administration is
00:00:12
working to fight the corona virus outbreak
including ramping up the manufacture of
00:00:17
protective gear for medical professionals
we get more from a.p.s. Saager Magon e.
00:00:23
In a now daily appearance in the White House
Briefing Room the president said it's
00:00:26
a time of shared national sacrifice rule
one beautiful big American family which
00:00:31
will celebrate
00:00:32
a great victory in the not so distant
future amid his optimism New Jersey's Phil
00:00:38
Murphy became the latest governor ordering
residents to stay home he's urging other
00:00:43
states to keep the virus from going across
their borders it becomes even more vital
00:00:48
that we all speak with one voice as the
president spoke flights to New York City
00:00:52
area airports were suspended for about
00:00:55
a half hour due to virus related staffing
issues at an air traffic control center
00:01:00
the Senate meantime is in a rare
weekend session racing toward
00:01:03
a mammoth economic stimulus bill and I
think we're getting very close solderer
00:01:07
Magni Washington North Korea on
Saturday welcomed what it said was
00:01:11
a letter from u.s.
00:01:12
President Donald Trump to North Korean
leader Kim Jong un saying it was
00:01:17
a sign of the quote special and very pert
firm personal relations between the 2
00:01:22
leaders despite recent frictions North
Korean state media said Kim received
00:01:26
a letter from Trump in which the Us
president said he was impressed by Kim's
00:01:32
efforts to defend his
people from the coronavirus
00:01:35
a senior Trump administration official
confirmed the president sent the letter
00:01:39
calling it consistent with his efforts to
engage global leaders during the ongoing
00:01:44
pandemic sense drop held
00:01:46
a 3rd summit with Kim last June and
briefly stepped into North Korea from the
00:01:51
demilitarized zone with South Korea
no progress has been made on the u.s.
00:01:55
President's bid to get Pyongyang to give
up its nuclear and missile programs this
00:02:01
is v.o.a.
00:02:02
News. Italy's death toll from the coronavirus
has leapt to more than 4800 the new
00:02:08
number came as the government closed
all parks and banned its citizens from
00:02:13
venturing outdoors except for essentials
like food Matthew Lera tundra of Reuters
00:02:18
has details all parks will be closed
people cannot leave their homes even for
00:02:23
exercise now the worst hit region the
military is now joining police to enforce it
00:02:29
people can only venture outside for essential
needs like food to make matters worse
00:02:34
the death toll may actually be far higher
than official tallies the mayor of the
00:02:39
most badly hit city bergamot in the
country's north has reportedly said that he
00:02:44
believes it may be as much as 4 times as
high in his town mayor told the Huffington
00:02:49
Post that elderly are dying at home without
testing so the true numbers may be
00:02:54
under reported other town mayors in the
area have told the same general also in the
00:03:00
country's north a cruise
ship is be repurposed as
00:03:03
a hospital ship off the overflowing medical
wards That's Matthew lever atoned of
00:03:09
Reuters Jordan sounded air raid sirens and
Iran's death toll continued to climb as
00:03:16
countries across the Middle East sought to
stem the outbreak of coronavirus in one
00:03:21
of the strictest measures yet Jordan has
ordered all shops to close and people to
00:03:25
stay off the streets until at least Tuesday
when it plans to announce specific
00:03:30
times for shopping another $123.00 people
died of covert $1000.00 in Iran bringing
00:03:36
the country's overall total to more than
$1500.00 Egypt announced that all museums
00:03:43
in archaeological sites including the famed
pyramids at Giza would be closed from
00:03:47
Monday until the end of March and Syria
said it was also suspending recruitment as
00:03:53
well as penalties for those of voiding
mandatory conscription into the army until
00:03:58
April 22nd. Singer Kenny Rogers
00:04:01
a Grammy winning balladeer who spanned
jazz folk country and pop has died he was
00:04:08
81 a.p.
00:04:09
Correspondent Julie Walker has this look
at his career you got to win Kenny Rogers
00:04:16
died at home in Georgia of natural causes
according to his representative the
00:04:20
performer with the husky voice and silver
beard sold tens of millions of records
00:04:25
won 3 Grammys and was a star t.v.
00:04:27
Movies based on the gambler
and 2015 he told the a.p.
00:04:30
About his class over music I could never
be better than Johnny Cash or Willie or
00:04:35
wailing at what they did so I found something
that I could do that didn't invite
00:04:39
comparison to them and I think people
thought it was my desire to change them for
00:04:44
music but that was never my issue I'm jus
block and we're going to keep For more on
00:04:50
these stories and the rest of the day's
news be sure to log on to v.o.a.
00:04:55
News dot com I'm David for video
00:04:58
a nuke. This is Encounter on
00:05:05
the v.o.a.
00:05:06
Here's Carol Castillo. Welcome to Encounter
on The Voice of America on this edition
00:05:13
of the program and update on Iraq Hello
again I'm Carol Castiel before we get into
00:05:19
our topic because of the coronavirus and
need for social distancing in the United
00:05:24
States my current affairs
team has been asked to tell
00:05:28
a work that is work from home more frequently
which may prevent us from providing
00:05:33
you our dear listeners with fresh encounter
Press Conference USA and issues in the
00:05:38
news programs on
00:05:39
a weekly basis we will be doing more
interviews by phone and that may reduce audio
00:05:45
quality we may also have to run on core
programs from time to time nonetheless we
00:05:50
want you to know that despite the difficult
days ahead and technical shortcomings
00:05:55
my colleagues Ken Lewis Rick Panta Layo and
I will work hard every day to bring you
00:06:01
our 3 news analysis programs to the best
of our ability and we thank you for your
00:06:06
understanding now to our encounter topic
Iraq we will be looking at the ongoing
00:06:11
consequences of the Us targeted assassination
in January of Iranian general custom
00:06:17
Soleimani playing out on Iraqi soil the
state of Iraqi politics in light of Iraqi
00:06:23
president Barham Saleh is nomination of
Shia politician. To be the country's next
00:06:29
candidate for prime minister and the
impact the coronavirus is having in that
00:06:34
fragile country lethal attacks on u.s.
00:06:37
Troops by Iran backed Iraqi militias
during the month of March demonstrate that
00:06:41
Iran continues to retaliate
for the January 3rd u.s.
00:06:44
Killing of top Iranian commander. According
to Michael Knights an analyst with the
00:06:50
Washington Institute for Near East
Policy early on March 13th u.s.
00:06:55
And British aircraft conducted multiple
airstrikes on the missile storage sites of
00:06:59
the Iraqi militia group
that died. Hezbollah
00:07:02
a pro Iranian group that was also hit by
unclaimed airstrikes in Syria the day
00:07:07
before until earlier that week when
00:07:10
a rocket attack killed 2 Americans and one
British service member at Camp Taji base
00:07:15
in Baghdad there hadn't been much noise
from Tehran since its reprisal in early
00:07:20
January after the assassination of Qassam
Soleimani so contrary to the trumpet
00:07:26
ministrations allegations that his assassination
would deter terrorist attacks Iran
00:07:31
has in fact shown its determination
through its proxies to exact revenge the
00:07:36
renewal of hostilities playing out on Iraqi
soil has increased tensions between the
00:07:40
United States and Iraq which has been
unable to form a permanent government amid
00:07:45
a deadlock between pro Iranian
factions seeking to expel u.s.
00:07:49
Troops from Iraq and Sunni and Kurdish
leaders seeking to preserve an American
00:07:54
presence Well joining us by phone to
analyze the current state of play in Iraq
00:08:00
against the backdrop of the covert 19 spread
are 2 distinguished regional analysts
00:08:06
Saad Hong homicide is director of
Middle East Programs at the u.s.
00:08:10
Institute of Peace and ran the slim is
director of the conflict resolution and
00:08:16
track 2 Dialogues program at the Middle
East Institute Saad Hong Welcome to the
00:08:22
program thank you for
00:08:23
a bit to be back and on this lame Welcome
to you thank you Carol good to be with
00:08:28
you well let me begin with Assad Hong What
is your take Assad hang on this tit for
00:08:33
tat missile strikes between the United
States and Iranian backed Iraqi militias in
00:08:38
the backdrop of this delicate political
state of play in Iraq now that President
00:08:43
Saleh has gone ahead and nominated this
Shia politician. To be the country's next
00:08:49
candidate for Prime Minister Well what
is happening is that both sides United
00:08:55
States and Iran have always been clear to
Iran have always declared that they want
00:09:00
the United States in Florida. In the
Middle East do standing wants u.s.
00:09:04
Troops out and presence of u.s.
00:09:06
Troops in Iraq especially now that the
military defeat of ISIS has been declared
00:09:11
for them it's a threat
they want to push the u.s.
00:09:14
Out and what aggravated matters the killing
of General Hossam so they money in
00:09:19
January and deputy commander of the
lead mobilization forces with strong
00:09:24
affiliations the Iran of all my Mohammed
is being killed on Iraqi territories in
00:09:28
just a bit that more and the u.s.
00:09:31
On the other side has always declared that
should there be casualties among u.s.
00:09:35
Personnel the u.s.
00:09:36
Will take action and defend itself and we
have seen now head for tat and that side
00:09:41
of this is that this is happening on Iraq
00:09:43
a territory something that the Iraqi
people and the Iraqi leaders have always
00:09:48
wanted to avoid not having their country
to become the battleground for direct or
00:09:52
indirect u.s.
00:09:54
And Iran competition attached
and the designation of
00:09:58
a Member of Parliament at Nona's or
00:10:00
a few now to become the prime minister
designate comes and very difficult time when
00:10:05
the states for tat is happening between
the United States and Iran and at the
00:10:09
moment we're Iraq's relationship with the
United States also strained over these
00:10:14
attacks and other matters and there's also
disagree in and among the Shia about who
00:10:18
they want to be prime minister and the
public mostly This satisfied with the status
00:10:25
quo of the political class and the
previous prime ministers they have been
00:10:29
objecting that Karen for many and others
so Iraq right now is in the middle of
00:10:34
a very complex situation
that has to do with the u.s.
00:10:38
And Iran and the covert 19 that you referred
to in your remarks and this complex
00:10:43
political situation let me turn now to
that and the thing for your take on the
00:10:47
current situation Donda anything to add or
subtract to what song said I agree with
00:10:52
Mark to us in fact all of what had
said I think it up now has been hit by
00:10:57
a perfect storm I don't want to hand you
have got all of itis and then me which has
00:11:01
. Hit it off so far 154 people are
registered by the Ministry of Health to be
00:11:07
infected with about 12 deaths so you have
the 1000 pandemic on the one hand for
00:11:13
which in fact they don't health care system
is really not equipped to handle to do
00:11:18
Cade's of mismanagement and corruption and
due to the flight to of capable medical
00:11:23
personnel over the last decade from Iraq
so that's one you have tumbling gold
00:11:29
prices because an old price war that's
taking place now between Russia and Saudi
00:11:34
Arabia which will have huge and long term
impact on the Iraqi economy 90 percent of
00:11:40
that have been used in the docking budget
spent on that oil exports to give you an
00:11:44
example the 2020 Iraq
00:11:46
a budget was put together on the
assumption that all it is is at
00:11:52
$56.00 today it's selling for less
than $25.00 so if this oil prices
00:11:58
sustain Iraq and not
00:12:00
a public sector salaries in the future
cannot keep its power plants running and
00:12:05
cannot finance
00:12:06
a lot of development project in education
health care and other services the 3rd is
00:12:12
something that said Honk the 1st 2 and you
talked about in your intro which is this
00:12:16
to put that which is going on between the
United States and Iran back to you know
00:12:21
community shares and which do not seem to
have an agenda and we are likely to see
00:12:25
more of that going forward and then you
have this political but Alice's witch hunt
00:12:30
talked about that is now
00:12:31
a new pm designate Mr Hudson as Sophie who
by the way is if you will United States
00:12:36
and Iraq National Now if he would have
shown the policy has to give up his
00:12:41
citizenship according to the last blow
anyway he is known to be inefficient to
00:12:46
manager he used to be twice governor
of the province of measure he is now
00:12:51
a member of parliament so he's known to
have good managerial skills however we're
00:12:56
already have heard from
00:12:58
a number of Iraqi parties especially those
that are affiliated with the. On Like
00:13:02
the block which is the 2nd largest
parliamentary bloc and parliament basically
00:13:08
voicing that opposition to the process by
which Mr as sort of he was nominated but
00:13:13
missed it but have thought if they duck
president nominating him but also voicing
00:13:17
their opposition to him as prime minister
designate because of this perception
00:13:22
within that can inside
Iraq of him being pro u.s.
00:13:26
Well thank you both for setting the scene
for us back to you songs homicide with
00:13:32
respect to the tit for tat and the political
paralysis How can the United States
00:13:38
respond to these provocations without
derailing what could be seen as
00:13:43
a potentially positive development so I've
made some assumptions there do you see
00:13:48
the nomination of sort of see as relatively
positive and do you think that he can
00:13:53
bring the factions together and can the
United States hold back in terms of the tit
00:13:59
for tat going forward what we are
witnessing today is primarily because the
00:14:05
government of Iraq has not been able to
rein in armed groups that have been staging
00:14:11
these attacks and that has been
00:14:12
a primary criticism from the United States
towards the government of Iraq and has
00:14:17
been the primary criticism from political
actors in Iraq and from Iraqi citizens
00:14:21
that's the core of the issue with the
Iraqi state being unable to control those
00:14:27
actors and prevent those attacks and the
degree of control varied under different
00:14:32
prime ministers of the current caretaker
prime minister may be considered their
00:14:36
weakest in terms of his ability to reign
in those armed groups but similar
00:14:40
criticism existed under the former prime
minister Dr about you so unless the
00:14:46
government of Iraq is strengthened and the
prime minister and institutions of the
00:14:51
state are able to exercise their prevention
of such attacks and when they have and
00:14:55
they bring perpetrators to
justice as long as the u.s.
00:14:59
Is present on the ground it will be. Force
to defend itself and its personnel and
00:15:04
respond to attacks that happened and that's
exactly what some of these actors and
00:15:09
Iran want to do is to pull the us into that
confrontation so that they use that as
00:15:14
excuse to push the u.s.
00:15:16
Out through the avenues of control
that they have whether it's
00:15:18
a parliament or through security forces the
other is that it serves Iran and those
00:15:24
groups to take attention away from the mass
demonstrations that were happening for
00:15:28
the past 5 months and that they are demanding
to end the influence of Iran and they
00:15:33
are demanding reforms in the government
fighting corruption and better elections
00:15:37
early elections so for now I think the best
that you have can do is try to minimize
00:15:42
those that support that's where possible
and continue to help and work with the
00:15:47
political process to have
00:15:48
a prime minister that can push the
political process forward and it's only
00:15:53
partially about the person who becomes
the prime minister because Iraq has
00:15:56
a political class problem not
a prime minister problem and
00:16:00
a political class they have diverging
interests and they have an interest 1st in
00:16:04
keeping the status quo which the people
do not like the 2 regional countries like
00:16:08
Iran and those countries and flaunts and
that often works against the interests of
00:16:13
the United States and the
Iraqi people so there is
00:16:16
a difficult situation that requires careful
management that's why elections is an
00:16:21
important factor if the
election is based on
00:16:23
a good law that allows more neutral actors
to come into the political space and
00:16:28
represent Iraqi interests and for real
try to prevent Iraq from being the
00:16:33
battleground for staging attacks against
the United States or others in the country
00:16:38
that is not more of
00:16:39
a long term bet strengthening that
institutions of the state the rule better
00:16:43
election better candidate higher political
participation from the people and this
00:16:48
will require the international community
to be really engaged and the entire chain
00:16:52
of the electoral process to have the
confidence of the people to participate that's
00:16:56
the longer again back to you and sort of
hang with her to the protests we know that
00:17:01
started last. We're widespread protests by
many communities predominately the Shia
00:17:06
community protesting against corruption
monopoly over power and the lack of
00:17:11
interest in sharing greater power your take
on what this prime minister could do if
00:17:16
he is ratified Adnan although defeat is he
00:17:19
a unifier and what is the balance of
power between these 2 factions those
00:17:23
parliamentarians who back Iran and those
who would like to maintain good relations
00:17:28
with the United States and at the same time
not antagonize obviously it's important
00:17:33
neighbor Iran as soon as he was officially
animated missed it as Sophie posted on
00:17:38
his Facebook account a
message which included
00:17:41
a series of promises and pledges one of
these pledges is to conduct the election
00:17:47
within a year's time and
00:17:48
a 2nd pledge is to respond to
the Protestants you met it's
00:17:53
a pledge is to get into the sovereignty of
Iraq and to try to bring all the weapons
00:17:59
under the control of the state I mean
we have heard this from previous prime
00:18:03
minister as well as the last you know me
who faded to gain the confidence of the
00:18:08
parliament and so as such angst said the
that this movement now is about 6 months
00:18:13
old you know it started in October and was
happening as you mentioned primarily in
00:18:20
Shiite majority areas and it was the most
of the broadest activist if not the great
00:18:25
majority of them religiously devout Shia
and despite that we have not seen division
00:18:32
within the political class and usually in
countries like Iran or like Lebanon or
00:18:37
someone else where you have
00:18:39
a political class that has interests on
preserving the status called the political
00:18:45
system as it is in the way they have
divided the spoils of the system among
00:18:49
themselves and how to preserve their
respective shares in the system through that
00:18:54
patronage networks or through that access
to different ministries budgets or
00:18:59
through the employment opportunities. That
control of certain ministries provided
00:19:04
to each of these different political parties
so what we have seen in Iraq is that
00:19:08
despite the 6 months of
protests despite quite
00:19:11
a wide eyed say level of support from
the Iraqi population that large for the
00:19:17
demands of the protesters which are
demanding for the less corruption but that
00:19:22
management better services which is expected
of every citizen to demand of their
00:19:27
government we have not seen this political
indeed the fooling class divided and by
00:19:32
remaining united they had not been as many
opportunities as we could see if they
00:19:38
were divided for the protesters to mine
these divisions and to create spaces for
00:19:44
them to be able to contest the political
space or to create opportunities for them
00:19:49
to contest the political space we have
not seen that happen and they the main
00:19:53
united around the president's vision of the
status quo and so going forward if this
00:19:58
broad minister who is
00:19:59
a product of the state school after all he
might come with all these lofty pledges
00:20:04
but he still is
00:20:05
a product of the post 2000 cities state
school and also he shares the interests of
00:20:10
the ruling class of preserving the status
quo so at some point he's going to clash
00:20:15
with them but the stars who have been
demanding an overhaul of the state the school
00:20:19
told the change of the rules of the game
that have been put in place after 2003 by
00:20:25
the United States and eventually by every
Iraqi government that was put in place
00:20:29
after that and so it's going to be hard for
him on one hand to win the trust of the
00:20:34
protesters and on the other hand it's going
to be in my opinion difficult for him
00:20:39
to try to change or to carry this mission
of changing a status quo of which he is
00:20:45
a product that's assuming he's able to
win the confidence of Parliament exactly
00:20:50
thing going for him is that right now
there's going to be more groups for his
00:20:55
candidacy than the last I think Mr residency
from what you have heard so far in
00:21:00
terms of reaction to the nomination. Is
that you have some groups within the Shia
00:21:04
community opposed to him specially the
pro Iran group but also you have other
00:21:08
groups within the Shia community and the
shout but it is who are supporting him you
00:21:11
have the Sunnis many of whom are supporting
him and you have fought hard of the
00:21:16
Kurds are supporting him and more probably
most of the Kurds would support him if
00:21:21
he would agree with them on that share
of the ministries and the budget going
00:21:25
forward depending on the
negotiation and so he might have
00:21:28
a better chance going forward given alliance
that right now had come together to
00:21:33
support him but still he has
00:21:35
a very tough job ahead of him and it's going
to be very hard for the Protestants to
00:21:39
accept if you're listening to Encounter on
The Voice of America my guests are. He's
00:21:45
director of Middle East
Programs at the u.s.
00:21:48
Institute of Peace and run the slim She's
director of the conflict resolution and
00:21:52
track 2 Dialogues program at the Middle
East Institute were discussing the state of
00:21:56
play in the very important nation of Iraq
which has great implications for the
00:22:01
region and the world and both panelist
joined me by phone in keeping with our new
00:22:06
regulations to stop the spread
of the corona virus this is
00:22:10
a reminder that our encounter podcast
is available on our website at v.o.a.
00:22:14
News dot com slash encounter and you may
also follow us on Twitter or connect with
00:22:18
us on Facebook at Carol Castiel v.o.a.
00:22:21
Here's
00:22:21
a shout out to our very loyal listener
Nelson from Ghana and we just want to advise
00:22:27
you as well that we will be giving you
updates communicating with you via Facebook
00:22:32
and Twitter to supplement our broadcasts
so back to our guests as we conclude the
00:22:37
program and sorry Hong Kong we're going to
talk about Iran and then the us quickly
00:22:42
Iran what does Iran want to mean it is
overwhelmed by the coronavirus by Coleridge
00:22:47
19 they are worrying about the sanctions
which are preventing them from getting
00:22:51
dire medical equipment and treatment yet
they are still backing these militias in
00:22:57
Iraq trying to hit the u.s.
00:22:59
For its assassination of Qassam Salema. Any
and trying to get the us to depart What
00:23:04
are they trying to achieve and can they
do it right well I think if it that's the
00:23:08
trillion dollar question or the wrong one
but I think it's as far as we can know
00:23:12
quickly from just what the articulated
they want the us out of the Middle East
00:23:17
terms of military power and less influence
offices harder to achieve the reality
00:23:21
that they get on with the 2nd they want to
preserve the advances they have made in
00:23:25
Iraq and Syria and Lebanon and in the Amman
and 3rd they want to wait out and sold
00:23:32
after the elections to
see if they can have
00:23:34
a different conversation with the United
States however the economic pressure
00:23:38
they're under and the implications of call
that 90 May change that of course we do
00:23:43
not know so far from these attacks they
continue to signal that they are not giving
00:23:47
up Ok And one more question then I'll let
Rand conclude what would you recommend
00:23:51
Saddam hung that the United States do to
stabilize and improve relations with Iraq
00:23:56
after all their relationship
is critical u.s.
00:23:59
Troops have been there to aid in the fight
against the remnants of the so-called
00:24:02
Islamic state which still has sleeper cells
and the ideology continues to attract
00:24:06
followers so notwithstanding the defeat of
the territory we're still in that fight
00:24:11
also keeping
00:24:13
a Ronnie means what would you recommend
that the United States do now my
00:24:17
recommendation for the United States and
all the friends of Iraq is that they work
00:24:21
together with one voice so the European
allies and others because what is good for
00:24:26
Iraq there is
00:24:26
a common interest was the interest of the
Iraqi people and the United States and
00:24:30
the friends of Iraq and speaking with one
voice for the political class to take
00:24:34
this moment seriously that they have
serious political economy exceptional and
00:24:38
security issues they need to resolve so
that the international community does not
00:24:43
have to go and bail out Iraq in terms of
fighting another church group or another
00:24:47
round of violence and displacement and all
of that so speaking with one voice with
00:24:52
the Iraq is important 2nd I would recommend
that do not adopt an idea mindset of
00:24:57
forcing Iraq out on either war if you force
Iraq to say Ok You either choose. The
00:25:02
United States or Iran they cannot make
that choice Iran is their neighbor their
00:25:06
influence on the ground is the real I think
helping Iraq to set its free from the
00:25:12
malign influence is that we to
go and that's what elections is
00:25:16
a central piece to that and working with
the United Nations to do that is key
00:25:20
harnessing this positive energy among the
Iraqi youth which struck present the
00:25:24
biggest transformation the Iraqi society
since 2003 are the things to focus on and
00:25:30
around the slim you get the last word Look
I think in terms of hit on I think that
00:25:34
main objective has always been since
Saddam Hussein was removed by the u.s.
00:25:40
Invasion of Iraq that they want to
make sure that Iraq will never present
00:25:45
a source of threat to Iraq Saddam Hussein
was that threat had an 88 ward with it on
00:25:51
and so his removal by the u.s.
00:25:53
Occupation created an opportunity
for Iran to call for itself
00:25:58
a big role in Iraq in politics and what
importantly what the Iran has been doing
00:26:03
since the ISIS war in 2014 is to work
with these militias known as the
00:26:10
popular Malaysian forces who played
00:26:12
a very important role in fighting ISIS
we cannot discount that but that is
00:26:16
a problem with
00:26:17
a group of them which are extremely loyal
to it on and which controls pretty much
00:26:23
by Iran and there are some of these groups
that are conducting these at that on.
00:26:29
Hosting this coalition forces and they
too they have been 25 rocket strikes on
00:26:35
Iraqi bases as well need the u.s.
00:26:38
Embassy in the Green Zone in Iraq since
last fall that some of these strikes 3
00:26:42
dates with a man is scaling in January of
this year and so this has been part of
00:26:48
a strategy by Iran as sudden
onset to drive the u.s.
00:26:52
Out but more importantly is also to
create discord within the popular
00:26:57
monopolization forces that ought not mean
the under the control of the adopted.
00:27:01
Sense ministry but they are really not
beholden to the office of the prime minister
00:27:06
and they are still been controlled or on
the decision making of Iran and they want
00:27:11
to entertain this as an independent force
inside Iraq to make sure that there would
00:27:16
be no governments in the future in Iraq
that will make every decision to go to war
00:27:21
against Iran or to be
00:27:22
a source of that you know that's the main
objective of you know on what can the
00:27:26
u.s.
00:27:26
Do I think I agree with most of what that
Hunt said I think it's very important for
00:27:31
us to capitalize on the future of Utah
and diffuse these broad sisters are the
00:27:36
future of Iraq and so the more that we can
work with them the last thing we should
00:27:40
do is to make them seen as being
pro u.s. Actors or being u.s.
00:27:46
Allies Iraq brought to stars who are there
to shape the future of that country they
00:27:52
need to be enabled to Iran geography after
all dictate facts and then they need to
00:27:57
not to be beholden to Iranian interests
that the audit arc interest which sometimes
00:28:02
that version of it on and most
importantly what the u.s.
00:28:05
Needs to do going forward is to
look at Iraq through the Iraq
00:28:09
a lens until now our policy vis
00:28:12
a vis Iraq especially under this
administration has been through the maximum
00:28:15
pressure that's in Iran
unless we have not had
00:28:18
a policy that's really about us Iraq
relations and that is defined and shape in
00:28:24
dialogue by Iraqis and by Americans it's
more about how can we deal with Iraq or
00:28:30
how can we work with Iraq and how can it
all work with us to defeat Iran and to put
00:28:36
more of the maximum pressure on Iran I'm
afraid that's all the time we have I'd
00:28:40
like to thank my guests are Hong homicide
lead director of Middle East Programs at
00:28:43
the u.s.
00:28:44
Institute of Peace and roundest lame director
of the conflict resolution and track
00:28:48
2 Dialogues program at the Washington based
Middle East Institute thank you so much
00:28:53
both of you for joining me by phone thank
you thank you relive your encounter was
00:28:57
produced in Washington our engineer was Joe
Gill And I'm Carol Castillo. Thank you
00:29:02
once again for tuning in and for understanding
our programming limitations due to
00:29:06
coronavirus coming up on the science edition
of Press Conference USA with host is
00:29:12
a special episode about the coronavirus and
Co with 19 with former director of the
00:29:16
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Dr Thomas Frieden mean time listeners
00:29:20
please take care stay safe and healthy
and if you have access to the internet
00:29:24
please check out our Facebook page
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00:29:29
And our Twitter feed at v.o.a.
00:29:31
For alerts and program updates and join us
again next week for another encounter on
00:29:37
the Voice of America.
00:30:03
V.o.a. The science edition of Press
Conference USA here's your host battle
00:30:09
a. Welcome to the science edition of
Press Conference USA I'm Rick Banta Layo
00:30:16
on today's program we are going to talk
about what's on everyone's mind these days
00:30:20
the coronavirus pandemic that sweeping the
world but before we get into our topic
00:30:26
because of the coronavirus and the need for
social distancing in the United States
00:30:31
our current affairs team of v.o.a.
00:30:33
Has been asked to telework that's work
from home more frequently this may prevent
00:30:38
us from providing you with fresh programs
like Press Conference USA encounter and
00:30:43
issues in the news on
00:30:44
a weekly basis we will be doing more
interviews by phone and that may reduce the
00:30:49
audio quality of our programs we may also
have to run encore programs from time to
00:30:55
time however we want you to know that
despite the difficult days ahead and
00:31:00
technical shortcomings my colleagues Carol
Castiel Kim Lewis and I will work hard
00:31:05
every day to bring you our 3 news analysis
programs to the best of our ability and
00:31:11
we do thank you for your understanding
with 19 or coronavirus 2019 is the name of
00:31:17
the disease that's caused by
00:31:19
a novel or new corona virus that has never
before been detected in humans according
00:31:24
to the National Institutes
of Health coronaviruses are
00:31:27
a large family of viruses that usually
cause mild to moderate upper respiratory
00:31:33
tract illnesses like the common cold those
who have tested positive for Cove and 19
00:31:38
have ranged from having very mild symptoms
with some reporting no symptoms to those
00:31:43
severe with illnesses that result in death
concern over the spread of covert 19
00:31:49
continues to touch virtually every aspect
of daily life national regional and local
00:31:54
government leaders have put unprecedented
policies into effect to help mitigate the
00:31:59
spread of covert 19 the pan. Demigods
affecting the global economy throwing the
00:32:04
world's financial markets into
00:32:06
a period of extreme volatility and
uncertainty governments and international
00:32:10
organizations are planning to implement
significant measures to help offset the
00:32:14
potential economic impact of the pandemic
people are encouraged to practice
00:32:19
something called social distancing which
Johns Hopkins University defines as
00:32:24
a public health practice that prevents
sick people from coming into close contact
00:32:28
with healthy people to reduce opportunities
for disease transmission This means
00:32:33
that schools are closing with some offering
online education instead of classroom
00:32:38
education in many parts of the world scores
of restaurants and theaters have closed
00:32:42
their doors with New York's Broadway dimming
its lights until at least April 12th
00:32:47
major sporting events have been canceled
or postponed the world's religions have
00:32:52
been affected by the pandemic with many
closing their churches mosques synagogues
00:32:57
and temples to the public and offering
online or televised additions of their
00:33:01
religious services today will talk about
covert 19 the corona virus that causes it
00:33:07
what medical science is learning about it
efforts being made to mitigate the spread
00:33:12
of the disease and what we may expect in
the future my co-host for today's program
00:33:17
is v.o.a.
00:33:18
Health reporter Carole Pearson and our
featured guest for today's program is Dr
00:33:22
Thomas Frieden m.d.
00:33:24
Dr Frieden is an infectious disease and
public health physician he is currently
00:33:29
President and c.e.o.
00:33:30
Of resolve to save lives and initiative
that has been established to prevent
00:33:35
epidemics and cardiovascular disease
from 2009 to 2017 Dr Frieden served
00:33:42
as director of the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention in Atlanta Georgia
00:33:47
and before that it was commissioner of
the New York City Health Department Dr
00:33:51
Frieden Can you please take us back to the
start of this cove in 1000 crisis how
00:33:56
did the virus develop and then initially
spread. Out. Is that emerged in
00:34:03
China around November of last year and
then spread ultimately from Bath host
00:34:10
through some intermediate animal supposed
possibly or probably to what's called
00:34:16
a wet market or an market where exotic
animals are sold for food this is the same
00:34:22
way the stories virus spread 17 years
earlier from China no one's certain what is
00:34:28
certain is that this is unprecedented
never before has there been
00:34:32
a brand new virus including Does this but
other than into ns and brand new virus
00:34:38
that has emerged in one part of the world
and to come up and Demick all over the
00:34:42
world and yet there are people who say
that this virus was manufactured in
00:34:47
a lab and then let loose and it's one of
the rumors how do we know that that's not
00:34:52
true there are many rumors about viruses
and I feel that as with many different
00:34:57
microbes sunlight is the best disinfectant
getting information and making it
00:35:02
clearly and openly available will allow
that kind of rumor to be accessed there are
00:35:07
genetic fingerprint of the virus that
according to the viral exists who know this
00:35:12
best suggests that this is not
an engineered virus this is
00:35:16
a naturally occurring virus
00:35:18
a very much like some that occur in nature
and this is how SARS spread in 2003 so
00:35:25
the weight of evidence now certainly
suggests that something like
00:35:28
a wet market from
00:35:29
a natural source in the way that this
is most likely to have spread to other
00:35:35
theories or concerns or have pocket his
though should be looked at openly and
00:35:39
transparently so that sunlight can disinfect
that women I know no vaccines have
00:35:44
been developed at this point to prevent the
confection Dr Anthony found she says it
00:35:48
may be 18 months or so before one is
available for general distribution What are
00:35:53
your thoughts on that there are things
that we can do ready canal every one of us
00:35:58
needs to wash our hands more cover our cost.
Not infect others if we get ticked and
00:36:04
stop shaking hands for
00:36:06
a while people who are medically vulnerable
older people what's underlying health
00:36:11
conditions where this is spreading in
the community really need to isolate
00:36:15
themselves from others to protect themselves
health care facilities need to learn
00:36:20
to surge safely that means improving Infection
Prevention and Control getting ready
00:36:26
to treat large numbers of people with just
00:36:28
a mild illness and also getting ready to
veer situation to have to treat people
00:36:35
who need support for breathing with
ventilators or oxygen in society as
00:36:39
a whole we need to think about social
distancing and increasing the distance
00:36:45
between people canceling unnecessary meetings
and other large gatherings and making
00:36:51
sure that we continue to learn more about
this virus so we can do more about it one
00:36:57
thing is that we may have a
treatment in the months weeks or
00:37:00
a month and that could
occur and then it will be
00:37:03
a question of getting it to people back
seen development is very challenging and
00:37:09
though there are promising candidate that
means we have no guarantee that about 15
00:37:14
will become available and if
it does it will be at least
00:37:18
a year or 2 from now so we absolutely have
to do everything in our power to try to
00:37:23
get
00:37:23
a vaccine but we can't depend on it and
there's no certainty that we'll have it we
00:37:27
don't know that there will be
00:37:29
a safe and effective vaccine available
but we certainly hope that will be Dr
00:37:33
Freeman You mentioned the social
distancing and I understand
00:37:36
a number of people who are undergoing
self quarantine when you're talking about
00:37:40
both what kind of period of time are we
talking about how long does it Yeah great
00:37:46
question we have no idea how long it will
continue in China they had hundreds of
00:37:51
millions of people stay home and they just
gradually would be opening the economy
00:37:57
and society right now and they're doing
such extensive work. It doesn't look like
00:38:03
outside of the province of the bay where
this started it doesn't look like there's
00:38:07
command
00:38:07
a virus so there people can go about
their business carefully and it's an arc
00:38:11
sponsored try to convene them but we don't
know what will happen in the future
00:38:15
Anyone who tells you with confidence they
know what's going to happen with his
00:38:19
fires doesn't know enough about this virus
there is one doctor at the University of
00:38:24
Maryland who looked at where the corona
virus was breaking out and the temperatures
00:38:31
of the regions where it was
breaking out and he just published
00:38:35
a study saying that in his opinion according
to the numbers he saw this should
00:38:42
mitigate it should kind of disappear as it
gets warmer in these regions to we know
00:38:47
a little bit more about every look we've
looked at that study and we don't find it
00:38:52
convincing hypotheses it could be
better when it gets warmer but that's
00:38:58
a guess there's no evidence to support that
gas this virus is new to the world and
00:39:03
when you look at influenza it behaves very
differently in tropical climates from 10
00:39:09
to requirements in tropical climate it
spreads all year round so there's no flu
00:39:14
season but there's
00:39:15
a lot of new all year round and if we look
at other Karuna viruses other similar
00:39:21
viruses one of them at least has
00:39:23
a peak both in the winter and in the summer
so only kind we can hope for the bad
00:39:29
but more importantly we have to work for
the best and we have to plan for the worst
00:39:34
and our suggestion that Africa is in some
way in using to this disease which we've
00:39:39
seen on social media is very dangerous
because there's no evidence that that's the
00:39:44
case and in fact we're beginning to see
that in Africa where they're looking for it
00:39:48
which is the case is that this disease
is more severe among older people and so
00:39:53
societies that have
00:39:54
a smaller proportion of people who are
elderly many have more difficulty
00:40:00
identifying it on less. Good custom Why
do some countries seem to have fewer
00:40:05
reported cases than others and how is
the sponsible there are several things
00:40:09
happening 1st this is spreading very
rapidly around the world but it's not
00:40:14
spreading even though it's more in some
places I've been in others partly because
00:40:19
travel patterns and partly because of
events that may allow it to spread very
00:40:25
widely as happened in South Korea in one
community also in different parts of the
00:40:31
country there has been
00:40:33
a lot of different parts of the world so
when we look around the United States and
00:40:37
around the world we see
places that don't have
00:40:40
a lot of diagnosed cases some of the places
are looking and not finding and don't
00:40:45
have it yet others of them simply aren't
looking so we don't know yet but certainly
00:40:50
they came in the United States today is
that anyone with severe pneumonia should be
00:40:55
tested for this so we can understand
what's happening we also need to really
00:41:00
protect congregate facilities places
like nursing homes where this can spread
00:41:05
explosively hospitals prisons homeless
shelters these are all the locations where I
00:41:11
didn't mean like this can really reach
havoc Dr Frieden you said that if you have
00:41:17
severe pneumonia you should be tested but
I had drifted to that by the time you
00:41:22
have severe pneumonia this virus has
damaged your lungs is that too late and
00:41:29
there's been a lot of confusion
about the testing if
00:41:33
a community is trying to contain the virus
that is find every single infection and
00:41:38
stop them and testing is very important if
00:41:41
a community doesn't know that kind of virus
is there and testing very important to
00:41:46
find out when it comes in if some and ill
with Kareena that is it's very ill it's
00:41:52
important to test them so that they can be
cared for safely and rolled in clinical
00:41:56
trials that we can understand more about
the nature of this disease and there are.
00:42:01
Very important because the
detectives at the need me
00:42:04
a large investigation that need to be done
in order for us to learn more about the
00:42:10
virus so we can do more
diet but in contrast in
00:42:15
a community where the virus is spreading
widely and it has become difficult or
00:42:20
impossible to find all of the chain the
transmission and texting has much more
00:42:25
limited role. Unfortunately I think the
situation in several communities in the
00:42:31
United States now early on when it's good
when you try to find every case but where
00:42:37
it starts making widely in
00:42:38
a community you have to devote your
resources to doing as much good as you can
00:42:43
protecting people as much as you can I had
read that some Taiwanese experts said if
00:42:49
you do this in the morning but take
00:42:51
a deep breath hold your breath for more
than 10 seconds and if you can do that
00:42:55
without coughing without discomfort without
stiffness or tightness in your chest
00:43:01
then there's no fibrosis in your
lungs and they also recommend taking
00:43:05
a few sips of water say your mouth and
throat stay more east and because if you
00:43:10
don't drink enough water the virus can
enter your windpipe and then get into your
00:43:14
lungs What do you recommend
this is well you know there's
00:43:18
a lot of rumor going on on the Internet I
think it's important that we focus on the
00:43:23
things that we have reasonable evidence
maids are going to help wash your hands
00:43:29
regularly Tarver your mouth and nose when
you cough or sneeze or you cover it with
00:43:34
crook of your elbow or with the tissue
that you then throw out don't go out if
00:43:38
you're sick or if you do go out and you're
sick where that stop shaking and don't
00:43:44
go to mass gatherings these are things that
we know are likely to be kept you on to
00:43:50
protect others if they're older my mother
is not on my advice you taking long
00:43:57
walks outside and watching
00:43:59
a lot of movies and reading books not
in. In with others in spreading in the
00:44:04
community where she lives Gunter
I'm curious how long does
00:44:08
a corona virus infection last how long could
we if someone is infected and there's
00:44:12
displaying symptoms of the corona virus
how long can they expect to be under the
00:44:16
weather from the Corona virus it may happen
elsewhere suggests that we're not and
00:44:23
people who get action will have either
no symptoms or moderate symptoms and may
00:44:29
feel better mimics and Lossing
roommates about for as long as
00:44:32
a few weeks with people with severe illness
1st thing relatively long course and
00:44:38
we're seeing people get
sick from aggressively over
00:44:42
a bottle home game 7 to 10 days and you
know basic who were very weak and then
00:44:48
recovered very groggy so
who are people here it's
00:44:53
a long struggle to deal
with it sounds like
00:44:56
a recovery time of pneumonia
little more bottle. X.
00:45:02
Ray was one of the long term
that. Quite prominently.
00:45:09
Pintu a quarter from let's take
00:45:12
a break now you're listening to the science
edition of Press Conference USA on The
00:45:16
Voice of America I'm
Rick Pantoliano Here's
00:45:20
a reminder that press conference USA is
available for free download from our
00:45:25
website v.o.a. News dot com slash p.c.
00:45:28
USA and from many streaming services such
as Apple podcasts if you have access to
00:45:34
the internet please check out our Facebook
and Twitter pages at Carol Castiel
00:45:39
v.o.a.
00:45:40
For alerts send program updates we will
increasingly be using social media to communicate
00:45:46
with you and to supplement our broadcasts
which will be more difficult to sustain
00:45:51
But make no mistake we will go out of our
way to serve you and bring you as many
00:45:56
fresh programs whether Press Conference
USA encounter or issues in the news so.
00:46:01
Please bear with us during these difficult
days now back to the science edition of
00:46:07
Press Conference USA Today
we're talking about covert 19
00:46:11
a corona virus that causes it what medical
science is learning about it efforts
00:46:16
being made to mitigate the spread of the
disease and what we may expect in the
00:46:20
future my co-host today is the away health
reporter Carol Pearson and our featured
00:46:26
guest is Dr Thomas Frieden m.d.
He is president and c.e.o.
00:46:31
Of resolve to save lives and initiative
that has been established to prevent
00:46:35
epidemics and cardiovascular disease Dr
Frieden previously served as director of
00:46:41
the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention in Atlanta Georgia and as the
00:46:45
commissioner of the New York City Health
Department Dr Frieden I'm curious to know
00:46:50
how cool that 19 especially the more serious
cases is being treated in hospitals
00:46:56
and other medical facilities Well 1st and
foremost you need to be treated safely
00:47:01
every coming in with cough or short
that need to be needed at the isolated
00:47:09
and we need to ensure the health care workers
are picked acted and getting back 2nd
00:47:15
we need to make sure that care is as
effective as possible and right now it's
00:47:21
what's called support for. People
to do whatever possible to support
00:47:28
the breathing patients who have severe
pneumonia and that may mean supplemental
00:47:32
oxygen that maybe meaning which is
00:47:36
a way of actually meeting the
blood or putting someone on
00:47:39
a ventilator this is something which in
many low and middle income countries isn't
00:47:44
widely available and even in the
most advanced cities in the world
00:47:49
a bad outbreak of planning
00:47:51
a virus could overwhelm capacity health
care facilities to provide ventilator
00:47:57
support to people who option the u.s.
00:48:01
Is. About 2 weeks behind Europe which is
the current area where it's spreading
00:48:07
rapidly does the closeness of where people
live in Europe in Atlanta thinking of
00:48:14
Italy we've seen pictures of people singing
from their balconies does that have any
00:48:20
impact on how easily the virus can spread
what we've seen is manifest gathering
00:48:27
being potential places where a lot of
people can spread and we still don't know
00:48:32
a lot about the patterns and spread but
certainly when people are placed together
00:48:37
and mixing closely there's
00:48:40
a potential of lack of spread that's why
it's so important that people who are out
00:48:44
of or Steve don't go out and they go
out there or hospital do so safely
00:48:51
covering their mouth and know
Dr Frieden we've been talking
00:48:55
a little bit about the least Carol when
you have been shown to the nightmarish
00:48:59
condition in Italy how did things get so
out of hand so quickly one of the really
00:49:04
striking features about Corona
virus is how rapidly it moves with
00:49:11
colleagues we've recently reviewed the
evidence and will be publishing it this week
00:49:16
on what are called super spreading. And in
those events large numbers of people get
00:49:22
infected in
00:49:24
a short period of time are and what we
find is that to prevent those events you
00:49:30
really need to act very vigorously within
about one week in order to limit them
00:49:37
than that and does it help like in the
United States schools are closing people the
00:49:43
federal government for the most part is
now teleworking Are these the sorts of
00:49:49
things that will buy you some time there
are certain things that certainly make
00:49:53
sense kind of working reducing math gatherings
going to tell a meeting schools are
00:50:00
a much more complex. Good issue although
there remains investable pressure to close
00:50:06
the schools it's not necessarily going to
have the thing impact this is because all
00:50:12
the children get inspected because fires
it's not millions with based spread it to
00:50:18
add to this is
00:50:19
a different influenza we think Lou and
kids are an important source and spread at
00:50:25
the time it's into song and
if you click schools for
00:50:29
a couple of months you may be able to knock
down the number of cases of influenza
00:50:34
by as much as 40 percent but we don't
know whether about the case here with
00:50:40
coronavirus and for all of these
steps what's key is to balance the
00:50:47
projected cost not just economic but also
societal against the potential health
00:50:53
benefits of taking that action so while
there are schools closing that may not
00:51:00
always be indicated or maximally effective
to protect society and of course schools
00:51:06
have many. Important social functions
in addition to education and when kids
00:51:13
are out and their. Parents can't work so
there are lots of things to consider with
00:51:19
this and it's really an explanation of cost
estimates from family Dr Frieden going
00:51:25
to ask you your personal opinion here what
is your reaction to the public health
00:51:29
response to the spend Demick Mrs on press
about. Other them to them that which
00:51:35
spreads each year we've never seen
00:51:38
a new virus emerge and then spread around
the world it has already been more
00:51:45
destructive than any infectious disease
event since the 19181919 influenza
00:51:52
pandemic the most destructive
infectious the event in more than
00:51:58
a 100 years. One of the things that I wish
we would do more and I hope that we do
00:52:04
more very quickly is to learn
more about how the virus spreads
00:52:11
whether it's spread from children and
asymptomatic people what works best to
00:52:17
protect health care workers so that we
can target all interventions and be as
00:52:23
effective as possible and. That means that
public health departments need to be in
00:52:29
the lead on the response figuring out
what works communicating that effectively
00:52:35
with the public and doing investigations
so that we can learn more and more to
00:52:42
protect people Dr Frieden you've mentioned
the 1918 flu epidemic have we learned
00:52:46
any lessons from that that we're applying
to this current pandemic there has been
00:52:51
a lot of planning around and then mix
how to address them how to mitigate the
00:52:57
impact and that's the playbook that many
groups and countries are now using to
00:53:03
respond to this coded 19 pandemic so that
planning has been very helpful but every
00:53:09
infectious disease is going
to be different and requires
00:53:12
a different approach and that's why getting
information as quickly as possible and
00:53:17
using that information to track people is
so critically important this occur around
00:53:22
a virus the novel one is very similar
I understand to the SARS coronavirus
00:53:29
that broke out again in China some
years ago could this possibly be just
00:53:35
a mutation of that. This has some relation
to the starting pirates but it's not
00:53:41
that closely related in
that sense than it is not
00:53:44
a descendent that there is what we know
is that coded is both more infectious
00:53:51
and less deadly than the Stars this we
don't know how much more in taxes and how
00:53:57
much less deadly it can the same family
unlike SARS it doesn't look like we're
00:54:03
going to be able to stop this and make it.
So we need to figure out how to manage
00:54:08
it how to mitigate and reduce the harm
it causes house on societal harms Dr
00:54:15
Frieden like Kovac 19 the 1st reported
case of SARS was reported in November and
00:54:21
2002 the w.h.o.
00:54:23
Had announced that it had been contained
by July 2003 do you think the world health
00:54:28
officials will be able to contain coded 19
within the same period. You know so when
00:54:34
you think it will peak. Well I think no
one can predict when it's that easy but
00:54:42
it does look like containment
that is getting it completely
00:54:49
out of society may not be possible
it has spread so widely with so
00:54:55
many chains of transmission that unlike
SARS coded looks like it may not be able to
00:55:01
be seen at this point so we're going
to have to do whatever we can to
00:55:08
reduce the impact on societies particularly
societies which have limited health
00:55:13
services need to protect it's not services
that we can reduce the societal harms
00:55:20
and also reduce the risk that other corps
of thinking hands will get distracted
00:55:25
children need to get back when they need
to get reproductive health care people
00:55:30
with chronic to really need to get them
treated people who have crashes and other
00:55:34
injuries need to have been attended to all
of these things need to continue while
00:55:39
cold it is with us I was talking
to a doctor at the u.s.
00:55:44
Food and Drug Administration and she was
saying that she would like to see you know
00:55:50
. Testing for like 10000
people on a random basis in
00:55:55
a particular community just to see because
we don't know how widespread this virus
00:56:01
is we don't know who has it but doesn't
show symptoms who has it but the symptoms
00:56:07
are so mild they don't even notice do you
think that that would be helpful at all.
00:56:13
There are
00:56:14
a few epidemiologic investigations that are
very much one of them is to test people
00:56:20
with what is known as the wind like illness
or code that there are surveillance
00:56:27
networks for you to learn to like illness
in. More than $100.00 countries around
00:56:33
the world and those networks need to be in
our being repro caged to track the cause
00:56:38
of the 2nd. People who are
severely ill with hospitalization
00:56:45
need to be tested to code to see if
they've got it and 3rd we need to do
00:56:51
special studies studies
that. Will. Determine
00:56:58
came to live how widely spreading whether
they are in symptomatic cases however we
00:57:03
don't yet have
00:57:04
a blood test only test we have.
Through the merits of the
00:57:11
Joe swab on that test is not 100
percent accurate false negatives so
00:57:18
we need to look very carefully to see what
happens here Dr Frieden we're almost out
00:57:24
of time is there anything specific that
you want to tell our audience about the
00:57:28
Potomac this is
00:57:30
a severe pandemic and it's frightening
but it's important to remember that most
00:57:36
people who get coded will do well each
90 percent of those infected have mild
00:57:41
moderate or no symptoms. There will be far
too many people who have severe illness
00:57:46
and tragically too many will die from it
and although the Karuna virus and Demick
00:57:53
though certainly get worse before it gets
better it will get better and even in the
00:57:59
worst of the 10 Demick many people and
no one knows what proportion will get
00:58:02
infected and those who do get infected
$99.00 out of $100.00 get recovered so it's
00:58:09
responsible to make Porton to be proactive
now and limit the Hardings of covert 19
00:58:14
but it's also good to keep in mind that it
will pall Dr Frieden I want to thank you
00:58:20
so very much for taking time out of your
busy schedule to talk with us and share
00:58:24
your wonderful insights into this
pandemic. Thank you very much. And I'm
00:58:31
afraid that's all the time we have for
this science addition of Press Conference
00:58:35
USA My guest was Dr Thomas Frieden
m.d. President and c.e.o.
00:58:41
Of resolve to save lives and initiative
that has been established to prevent
00:58:45
epidemics and cardiovascular disease he
was also the director of the Centers for
00:58:50
Disease Control and Prevention and
commissioner of the New York City Health
00:58:54
Department I'd like to thank my colleague
and co-host for this program v.o.a.
00:58:59
Health reporter Carole Pearson the science
edition of Press Conference USA was
00:59:04
produced in Washington our studio technician
today was eminent I'm Rick thanking
00:59:10
you once again for listening and for
understanding our programming limitations due
00:59:15
to the coronavirus time to you our dear
listeners please take care stay safe and
00:59:22
stay healthy and please join Carol
Castillo again next week for another press
00:59:26
conference USA on The Voice of America.
01:00:04
This is video a new I'm David Bird u.s.
01:00:07
President Donald Trump says
there's no need right now for
01:00:11
a national shutdown even as another state
ordered its residents to stay home
01:00:16
a peace agreement Ghani reports New Jersey
governor Phil Murphy says it pains him
01:00:21
but he's telling all 9000000 residents
not to go out California New York and
01:00:26
Illinois among other. I have done the same
and Murphy's urging other governors to
01:00:31
follow suit we cannot run the risk of
residents from one state simply moving their
01:00:36
parties or their shopping habits across
state lines the top administration has been
01:00:42
knocking down Facebook posts
and text messages that
01:00:45
a National Corn team is coming the president
says States and Middle America may
01:00:49
only have a few cases and don't
need to lock down it may be
01:00:53
a time I hope that never happens where
we need to take very drastic action but
01:00:57
right now that's not in the same ballpark
Saager Magni Washington negotiators from
01:01:03
Congress and the White House
have resumed top level talks on
01:01:07
a ballooning one trillion dollar plus
economic rescue package the Senate convened
01:01:12
a rare weekend session with the aim of
drafting the package Saturday holding
01:01:17
initial vote on Sunday and winning
passage on Monday Majority Leader Mitch
01:01:22
McConnell said that everyone must act in
the country's best interest or for not
01:01:27
a political opportunity this is the national
apart it's time to come together by
01:01:34
analyze the results of our bipartisan
discussion and then close us up treasury
01:01:40
secretary Stephen Minucci and began
negotiations with McConnell Senate Democratic
01:01:45
leader Chuck Schumer and senators from
both parties using McConnell's g.o.p.
01:01:50
Offer as
01:01:51
a starting point for more on these stories
and the rest of the day's news visit our
01:01:56
website v.o.a. News dot com This is v.o.a.
01:02:01
News. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti
says that businesses should close all
01:02:08
operations excluding essential supply
chain businesses due to the coronavirus
01:02:15
as Matthew lever atoned of Reuters reports
Italy's government has already closed
01:02:20
all parks and banned its citizens from
venturing outdoors except for essentials all
01:02:25
parks will be closed people cannot leave
their homes even for exercise now the
01:02:30
worst hit region the military is now joining
police to enforce it people can only
01:02:35
venture outside for essential needs like
food to make matters worse the death toll
01:02:40
may actually be far higher than official
tallies the mayor of the most badly hit
01:02:45
city bergamot in the country's north has
reportedly said that he believes it may be
01:02:50
as much as 4 times as high in his town mayor
told the Huffington Post that elderly
01:02:56
are dying at home without
testing so the true number.
Notes
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