the imf has said that the zar significant headwinds for economic growth. then there's the fact that us rates are rising, and what kind of impact that has on emerging markets, particularly turkey and argentina, we've seen vulnerability there, but also the concern that could spread. that's a question i put to the number two at the international monetary fund, david lipton, he's the first deputy managing director of the fund and here's what he said. 0ne here's what he said. one of the biggest questions we've been asking ourselves is whether this is the beginning of an en crisis, or whether this is going to be about a set of em countries and so be about a set of em countries and so far what we're seeing is countries with vulnerabilities, countries with vulnerabilities, countries particularly affected by the normalisation of interest rates in the us, or by the changes in energy prices, are having the most difficulties. there's really a very large swathe of emerging market countries that are largely unaffected. the other big theme that came out of the report, tr

know what then't imf actually is. christine: the international monetary fund was set up 75 years ago by 44 men who decided -- >> no women? no women in those days. 44 men in 1944 on the eve of the end of the second world war with a view to avoiding major economic crisis, major instability in the world, which in their view led to the war. that was the intention. david: where did you get your money? christine: from all of the membership. every member, 189 members, contributes to the financing of this common pot. david: it seemed to be an informal understanding that the world bank would be headed by an american, and the imf by a european. it has been the case ever since then, am i correct? christine: i want to believe that it is going to be headed by somebody who has the competence to do the job. there is a reservation that has been european at the imf, and american at the bank. that is how they cut the arrangement in the early days. at that time, the world looked a lot different. david: the world looks different today. a

the imf says there is no reason to be complacent. in fact there is a danger of some countries being too confident and not fixing some issues which they should have when the times were good. joining me to talk about this in greater detail is the bbc‘s economics editor, i met. you have come from the briefing. what was the main priority the imf was trying to raise in this report? -- kamal ahmed. there has been a change in the tectonic plates for the globe. in america, growth is free strong. the federal reserve is raising rates. that means that money is moving towards america as investors look for concerns. that leaves emerging market economies undera lot of leaves emerging market economies under a lot of pressure. if they have big debts in dollars, that puts them under pressure. and there is a worry from the imf that we are getting to a position where the capital getting to a position where the ca pital flows getting to a position where the capital flows start damaging emerging market economies as investors put all their money towards

argentina has taken on the biggest loan in the imf's history. turkey for its part is still rejecting imf aid, despite its own crisis. but it is in venezuela that the imf's forecasasts take on unimaginable dimensions. inflation is set to hit 10,000,000% next year. helena: jens korte joins us now. jens, the imf has made it very clear it is lowering growth based on moves initiated the u.s. so, how is the news playing out there? jens: well, the imf is not necessarily famous for being super timely with their forecasts. for example, when the imf is talking about emerging markets like turkey, like brazil, like argentina, for instance, as having a tough time, that is not exactly news. we have known that and see that for some time. also the forecast is not super dramatic, at least for this year. we're talking about matching globally the biggest growth in about seven years, and then a slight change in the forecast for next year. this year the forecast for the u.s. actually still remains unchanged. so there was not big reaction here on wall street, even if

♪ david: when you're the head of the imf, i will recognize you. how did you get to be the head of the entire firm? ms. lagarde: it's often in those situations that a woman arises. david: with synchronized swimming, you became a member of the national team of friends. ms. lagarde: headed european championship and then international events. david: did you experience a lot of discrimination? ms. lagarde: and i interviewed with law firms where i was told back in those days i would never make partnership because i was a woman. >> will you fix your tie please? david: people would not recognize me if my tie was fixed. let's leave it this way. i don't consider myself a journalist. no one else would consider myself a journalist. i began to take on the life of being an interviewer even though i have a day job of running a private equity firm. how do you define leadership? what is it that makes somebody tick? many people don't know what the imf actually is. ms. lagarde: the international monetary fund was set up 75 years ago by 44 men -- david: no women? ms.

many people don't know what imf actually is. christine: the international monetary fund was set up 75 -- no women 44 men in those days -- 44 men in 1944 on the eve of the end of the second world war with a view to avoiding major economic crisis, major instability in the world, which led to the war. that was the intention. david: where did you get your money? christine: from all of the membership. to theember contributed financing of this common pot. david: it seemed to be an informal understanding that the world bank would be headed by an american, and the imf by a european. believee: i want to that it is going to be headed by somebody who has the competence to do the job. there is a river station -- reservation that has been european at the imf, and american at the bank. time, the world looked a lot different. david: the world looks different today. asia is much more significant. people from china and japan say what about us? christine: the emerging markets are interested in institution. china is extremely interested, as well.

many people don't know what the imf actually is. christine: it was set up 75 years ago by 44 men who decided that -- david: no women? christine: there was no women in those days. in 1944, on the eve of the second world war with a view to avoiding major economic crisis, major instability which led to the war, so that is the intention. david: where do you get your money? christine: from all the membership. 189 members, they contribute to the financing of this common pot. david: it seems to be a common understanding that the world bank by an american and the imf a european. that has been the case ever since. christine: i want to believe it someone whoed by has the confidence to do the job. it is my observation it has been an american at the world bank. that is how they did it in the early days at the time when the world looked a lot different. david: asia is much more significant, so they say, what about us? christine: they are very interested, and china is interested as well. china has a representative on my management team. there is

a second warning from the imf in 2a hours, this time about "dangerous undercurrents" threatening the health of the global financial system. we are live in bali to talk to the author of the report. and survivors of the sulawesi earthquake and tsunami are returning to work as they try to put the horror of the disaster behind them. and on financial markets, flat, today, in asia, apart from hong kong, up nearly half a percent. this follows declines on tuesday, with stocks around the world hitting each week lows. —— eight week lows. as you're aware, i'm sure the international monetary fund, the world bank are gathered in bali right now for their key summit. we'll be talking to the author of the imf‘s letters report in a moment. —— latest. in indonesia, the government has called on people who survived the sulawesi earthquake to return to work. more than 1,900 deaths have been confirmed on the island, and around 5,000 people are still unaccounted for, with many parts of the city of palu reduced to rubble. but more than a week after the disaster, there are signs of commerce once ag

a imf cuts the global forecast. stresses in emerging markets leads them to gut the global growth forecasted two years. risetion in venezuela will . the italy italian -- italian finance member -- minister defends their policy. david: i am david westin right here with alix steel. we are not in the panhandle of florida. you can see this is the satellite photographs of how the storm is entering the gulf of mexico. it is going to take a right-hand turn and go at cross -- across the panhandle. alix:

that's the risk of a trade war between the us and china warns the imf. and from the paris motor show our roving reporter strikes up a conversation with the man driving vietnam's carmaker vinfast. the financial markets, the sharemarket in asia, some of them have hit lows. japan down over 1% as the concerned over at trade wars in china continued to worry investors. trouble in paradise. the world bank and the international monetary fund are in the resort of bali, indonesia, to present their global economic outlook. the mood is one of trepidation, as threats to the global economy that once felt remote are now becoming more real. the imf‘s world economic outlook report predicts global growth will be less bright for this year and for next, falling to 3.7%, down 0.2% on earlier predictions. one reason for concern is that the size of global corporate debt in both the private and public sectors, now stands at an all—time high of $182 trillion, according to the imf. that's a jump of 60% since the 2008 financial crisis. the us federal reserve has been raising i

>> you are the head of the imf, people recognize you. it's tough in the situations, but a woman arises. european championship and many international events. >> did you experience a lot of discrimination? >> i was told back in those days makei would never publisher because i was a woman. >> would you fix your time, please? david: people would not recognize me if i fixed my time. all right. ♪ david: i don't consider myself a journalist. it began to take on the life of being an interviewer even though i run a firm. how do you define leadership? what is it that makes somebody tick? many people do not know what the imf is. christine: it was created by 44 men. david: no women? christine: no women in those days on the eve of the second world war with the view to avoid major economic crisis, major instability in the world. that is the intentions. david: where do you get your money? christine: every member contributes to the financing of this common pot. david: it seems to be an informal understanding that the world bank would be headed by an a

the imf brings out these reports as an early warning system. christine lagarde, the managing director, is urging countries to work together. as we have seen, some of the rhetoric might be strong from president trump orfrom china, the deals are might be strong from president trump or from china, the deals are still being made on trade. the deal between america, canada and mexico, for example. we had the treasury secretary saying he wants to for a deal with the european union and free trade, so not inevitable at all, but certainly the dashboard is glowing amber, not red, when this time last year there was much more green. kamal ahmed, good time last year there was much more green. kamalahmed, good to hear your thoughts on all of that. our economics editor assessing what we have heard from the imf today. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. google?says it's filling an appeal against a record $5 billion fine. the european competiton commission ruled that google had forced smartphone makers to favour its own products if th

david: you have done a good job at the imf. one thing you have to worry about is not just countries not doing well but the economy of the world. your job is to remote stability and development and employment. how do you think we are better prepared around the world for another financial collapse like 10 years ago? christine: i think we are better prepared. we have learned lessons. when you look at the banking system, when you look at the ring of improvisers, when you look at the set of regulations that apply, we are much better prepared. ,he banks around the world capital ratios, liquidity ratios come on all those fronts we have made progress. there are areas because risks tend to trouble the french and if you look at other areas, pension funds, syntactic elements to my those are areas where i am not sure we have the in relationcurity to the banking sector. when you get debt, there is a weight of debt on corporate and household have gone up by virtue of the stimulus and indebtedness in response to the crisis. david: when the eu

>> when you're the head of the imf, i will recognize you. how did you get to be the head of the entire firm? >> it's often in those situations that a woman arises. >> with synchronized swimming, you became a member of the national team of friends. >> headed european championship and then international events. >> did you experience a lot of discrimination? >> and i interviewed with law firms where i was told back in those days i would never make partnership because i was a woman. fix your time please? >> people would not recognize me if my time was fixed. let's leave it this way. all right. tie was fixed. let's leave it this way. all rights in i don't consider myself a journalist. no one else would consider myself a journalist. i began to take on the life of an interviewer even though i have a day job at a private equity firm. how do you define leadership? many people don't know what the imf actually is. ms. lagarde: the international monetary fund was set up 45 years ago by 44 minute -- david: no women? ms. lagarde: no women in those days. o

economist of the imf told me, that might not last for long. economist of the imf told me, that might not last for longlj economist of the imf told me, that might not last for long. i think the tax policy is a more powerful effect, but we have to see how far the trade actions go. if they affect financial markets and business confidence it could be a much bigger deal. so affecting business confidence, affecting investment, this is what i hear time affecting investment, this is what i heartime and time affecting investment, this is what i hear time and time again from companies and economists looking at a horizon in the future. but as the imf has pointed out, the global economy now looks far more cloudy than just economy now looks far more cloudy thanjust six economy now looks far more cloudy than just six months ago. a brief word if you will on emerging economies, we have talked about that a lot lately, whether they suffer in the wake of the strengthening us? and that will be on the agenda, too. very much on the agenda and on the minds of many f

many people don't know what the imf actually is. christine: the international monetary fund was set up 75 years ago by 44 men who decided that -- david: no women? christine: there was no women in those days. so 44 men in 1944 on the eve of the end of the second world war , with a view to avoiding major majoric crises, instability in the world which in their view, led to the war. so that is the intention. david: where do you get your money? christine: from all the membership. every member, 189 members, they contribute to the financing of this common pot. david: it seemed to be a common informal understanding that the world bank would be headed by an american and the imf, by european. that has been the case ever since. am i correct? christine: i want to believe it will be headed by someone who has the competence to do the job. it is my observation it has been an american at the world bank. i think that is how they cut those arrangements in the early days, at a time when the world looks a lot different. david: well, the world looks a l

we will be live at the imf meetings.

, can you establish for our audience what the imf is and what it does? >> a teeny, tiny bit of history. back in 1944, leaders of the world, led in particular by the united states, decided that it was not worth having a third world war and decided that international financial stability was key in order to avoid that, and that development was a determining factor. so they established two institutions, called the international monetary fund and the world bank. the international monetary fund has three business lines. the first one is to audit economies around the world and to alert policymakers when there is a risk on the horizon that they don't see. the second is to, as you said, provide financing for countries that have a balance of payment crisis. they can't pay their debt. and we provide financing and to do that, we say, "fine, but you're going to have to restore your public finance management, you're going to have to improve your situation, you're going to have to do reforms in order to regain your sovereignty and not need the international monetary fu

the imf warned that trade tensions and emerging market pressures could cause another financial crisis in its latest stability report they said debt levels are also too high but they praised regulators for strengthening financial stability over the past decade. cnbc spoke to the director an he said inflationary pressures in the u.s. are rising. >> inflation at some point might surprise to the upside, in particular in the u.s. what we've seen so far is a very gradual decline in the unemployment rate to levels that are as low as we have seen since 1960s. of course inflationary pressures might be building at some point. and that might lead to a faster than expected tightening of monetary policy at some point in the future >> that was the imf. he also said current trade tensions do pose a risk for markets. >> the second risk factor is a further escalation of trade tensions we have not yet seen a sharp impact on those trade negotiations on global financial conditions but we do see for the moment when we look across sectors, those sectors that are particularly exposed to trade have underperf

give us mentioned for the imf meeting, give us your take on the imf really pushing this message. christine lagarde again and again in the press. she believes very strongly in globalisation and also that free trade is the way to future economic growth, i do not think she is wrong about that. i had to tell you that the european bank for reconstruction and development, we think that that is called for economic growth, that free trade has helped the world economy, globalisation has helped the world economy. so the imf are saying here that they want to have a renewed push, they want to remind people that there are benefits and free trade at the same time as we have all these tensions. i would say one thing, they are right, i think we are right too to push this thing. it has to be a different form of globalisation probably going forward , globalisation probably going forward, we can't ignore the way that many people feel that in some ways some people have been losers in this. not some people, a lot of people. and that is why we are seeing this turbulence in. a lot of people are saying

manus: the imf has more on that front. time, the chief brexit negotiator and the dup leader hold a news conference. that will be riveting. anna: indeed. the blood red line gained headlines. then third quarter sales from lvmh. let's pick up on one of those stories. manus: troubles continue with turkey. has slashed growth estimates. the fund has called for tighter monetary policy to reanchor expectations. finance minister of turkey will announce an inflation roadmap. in our chief middle east economist. year high restrain 15 inflation? what do you think this road map is going to be? >> i can't imagine them doing anything meaningful. we don't expect higher interest rates. spending.ower fiscal ease the try and supply bottlenecks or increase competition. but the impact on inflation will not be immediate. measureswill get some to ensure this pricing is prevented. but nothing more. manus: anna? wrong-footed been by this bank before. where do you see inflation going from here? do you expect a response from policymakers? >> inflatio

i think i pretty much agree with the imf predictions. governornk of japan has told bloomberg that when the bank is ready to retreat from stimulus, the shift will be seen in its target rate. said .2% inflation is close, policymakers will be able to change focus. he noted that right -- that inflation remains around 1% so there is no likelihood of any imminent change. it wouldlly, i think be the main sustainable factor of inflation. we have seen accelerating in recent months. whether that continues or not will be very critical. >> sterling fell by 0.5% against the euro. britain's brexit secretary dominic rob unexpectedly traveled to brussels as speculation about a deal group. the pause indicates another diplomatic disaster for theresa of with a key monday meeting eu governments postponed. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ramy inocencio and this is bloomberg. shery: the weekend brought plenty of headlines but asian investors and traders w

joining us from the imf meetings in bali. tayl is the function on the bloomberg that brings up the taylor rule. 2.99 percentage points, this is relative to our next conversation. we are going to talk about the banking sector. over the next week, some of the world's biggest banks will report results. earnings from j.p. morgan and wells fargo on friday. today by european standards. morgan stanley and goldman sachs report next week. the banks fixed income revenue has likely slowed in the last three months. global trade concerns and the effects on economic growth are seen as the biggest risks of global investment banks moving forward. let's bring into the conversation keith campbell. very good to have you with us. part of the conversation with banks is always around the interest rate and how deeply we are going to be able to see interest rates go. tell us your big picture story for the banking season. >> the biggest picture, you wonder if the ceos might secretly agree with the president that the fed is making things hard for

we are live at the imf world bank meeting. we saw some downside pressure with the s&p 500 and the dow, the dow reversing yesterday's gains. the s&p 500 down .1%, the lowest level in a month. some downside pressure for material stocks, ppg warning of its profit outlook. , butnergy sector did gain not enough to put the benchmark in the green. thatrices rising as we see storm michael is strengthening. flat, techended rebounding from three days of selloff, but not enough to lead the market higher. and yields were down today, we had some negative sentiment coming from rising trade tensions, not to mention that the imf just cut its global growth forecast. let's see how all of this will play into asia. sophie: with that backdrop we could see little confidence inspired with the imap move. we take a look at the futures board after seven-day drop, japan could halt afford a decline. numbers are due out later this morning. from australia we will get another read on consumer confidence. a deal potentially going down and $1.4 billion bid fo

the imf warns of ‘dangerous undercurrents‘ in the global economy — and says there's a real risk of another financial crisis. and our mental health is getting worse — with few countries doing enough to help. a major new report gives a bleak outlook. in business briefing: survivors of the sulawesi earthquake and tsunami are returning to work as they try to put the horror of the disaster behind them. it is great to have you with us for the briefing today. a warm welcome to the programme, briefing you on all you need to know in global news, business, and sport. it's world mental health day and the uk government will announce several measures to tackle the issue. so we are asking what is happening where you are to improve mental health? do tell us your story. just use the hashtag bbcthebriefing. hundreds of thousands of people in the south—eastern united states have been urged to evacuate their homes, in preparation for the arrival of hurricane michael. forecasters say it has strengthened into a category three storm as it crosses the gulf of mexico, generating winds of more than 190 kilomet

we will have more from him coming up from the imf bank meetings. let's get more with the first word news. reporter: president trump says he will not fire jay powell, but repeated criticism of policy of the bank selloff. the president says he knows monetary policy better than powell and his team, and says that what they are doing is wrong. this is a marked change from recent white house policy, but the advisor says he is just having fun. >> he has never, never attacked the fed's plan or strategy. he has never interfered with that. he is giving his opinion, and it is an informed opinion. frankly, i think people should listen to what the president is saying. but the fed is independent, we have always said that. reporter: the chairman of standard chartered has contradicted him, saying the central bank is doing its job and balance policy sheet adjustments are reasonable. he said instead of changing policy, the most important thing to do is in short -- is to ensure an open trade environment. >> it will be lower next year than it was before hand. but stil

christine lagarde of the imf. that meeting in bali ended with a renewed call for a multilateral approach to trade tensions and global development issues. another key concern was making sure the digital revolution that's happening everywhere in the world is accessable to everyone. this is an issue close to the heart of melinda gates, co—founder of the bill and melinda gates foundation. mrs gates told karishma vaswani that the answer is greater digital distribution. digital is upon us, so whether we like it or not, it's coming and it's already there. three quarters of the world's whole population use cellphones today, and what we're trying to say two countries is you need to make investments both in health and education for sure, you have to have a healthy population, and educated population, but you also have to make investments in digital and the right regulatory framework because you can take advantage of digital, and when young people, which 60% of the continent of africa is under 25, when they have access to

later today the imf will release its world economic 0utlook imf will release its world economic outlook and our asia business correspondent is in bali covering the meetings for us. what can we expect from this report? we are expecting the report to be released in the next 30 minutes or so, and expecting the report to be released in the next 30 minutes orso, and i think what we will hear is that, when we heard from the fund the last time they released the world economic 0utlook a little earlier on in the year, the fund expected global growth to come in at around 3.9%. it said growth was picking up quite steadily, but at that point as well we were getting a sense that trade tensions in particular between the us and china could cloud that horizon. emerging market contagion, as well. fear of that is something that i have heard a lot about over my time here in bali, and what i expect to hear in the coming days as theseissues expect to hear in the coming days as these issues are discussed amongst central bank chiefs and finance ministers. and this isn'tjust something that is contained between

economy >> here we are in bali at this imf meeting. we heard the imf and world bank knocking down growth forecasts, raising concerns about financial stability and we had a market event overnight with this selloff. that's starting to create this idea that we maybe in the last innings for this bull run. how do you see it? >> when i was in davos the mood in the market was overly optimistic i was one of the few saying the mood in the market is too good to be true the market corrected sizably since the early start of the year in davos. i think when i look at the markets now people are on the other side they are too pessimistic in my view we probably still will have a good year to two years for the global economy the u.s. economy is doing very strongly it's tracking at about 3.5% growth at this moment record employment levels, inflation on target. i think the earnings season will be more muted than maybe in the heydays of financial markets but the market has room to improve. we're still overweight equity. the worst thing you can do now is ge

. >>> still ahead, we are going global the imf and world bank annual meeting and kicking off in bali. >>> a cnbc reporter got to go to bali we'll go to geoff cutmore. as we head to break, here's your futures not doing a whole lot. isorldwide exchange" back after th we saved our money and now, we get to spend it - our way. ♪ valerie: but we worry if we have enough to last. ♪ cal: ellen, our certified financial planner™ professional, helps us manage our cash flow and plan for the unexpected. valerie: her experience and training gave us the courage to go for it. it's our "confident forever plan"... cal: ...and it's all possible with a cfp® professional. find your certified financial planner™ professional at letsmakeaplan.org. >>> another day, another dow jones component upgrade to tell you about. guggenheim out upgrading mcdonald's to a buy from a neutral. they expect same-store sales to grow and they put a $200 price target on the stock. yesterday at this time we got a walmart upgrade. >>> the imf and the world bank's annual fall meeting is under way, and for some reason it's h

fundamentals, global growth, the imf talked about 3.5% growth, the imf talked about 3.5% growth, still the fastest in seven yea rs, growth, still the fastest in seven years, that is the thing. when the panic hits, step back and think, earnings, growth, what are the fundamental things that bush share prices higher? thank you very much. think about your diet for us. -- that pushes share prices higher. are you a flexitarian or not? meat free monday? plenty more coming up. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. let's turn our attention to singapore. the battle to offer the world's longest nonstop flight steps up a gear on thursday, when a new singapore—to—new york service takes off. singapore airlines is relaunching the service five years after it withdrew it, because it had become too expensive. it will cover more than 15,000km and is scheduled to take just under 19 hours. carmaking giant bmw wants to take control of its joint venture in china and is set to pump billions more into its production capacity in the country. the german firm will spend $4.16 billion

a imf cuts the global forecast. stresses in emerging markets leads them to gut the global growth forecasted two years. risetion in venezuela will . the italy italian -- italian finance member -- minister defends their policy. david: i am david westin right here with alix steel. we are not in the panhandle of florida. you can see this is the satellite photographs of how the storm is entering the gulf of mexico. it is going to take a right-hand turn and go at cross -- across the panhandle. natural gas hit an eight-month high yesterday. north, it's more not going to hit the citrus crop. it could hit the cotton crops in georgia. they haven't done a lot of picking yet. that could be a significant issue. david: it's going to come up short wednesday, about 4:00 in the afternoon grid they are warning this could become a category 3. the gulf of mexico, the water is warmer and more shallow. don't the bottom, this is where we are starting. it's going to curve around and go up the east coast. alix: in the markets, it's another

the imf unveils its global forecast. a warm welcome to the programme, briefing you on all you need to know in global news, business and sport. paris has banned cars on the first sunday of every month in a bid to tackle high pollution levels. to use in a city where you live? —— can you see this happening in a city where you live? tell us what you think, just use the hashtag #bbcthebriefing. justice brett kavanaugh has been sworn in as the latest member of the us supreme court at a special ceremony at the white house. president trump apologised to him on behalf of the american people for what he called the campaign of political and personal destruction based on lies and deception. justice kavanaugh said he would always be impartial and a judge for all americans. our north america correspondent peter bowes reports. after weeks of political rancour, a ceremony swearing in ceremony for justice kava nagh. ceremony swearing in ceremony for justice kavanagh. greeted by an extended standing ovation from the supporters, the ne

at risk according to the imf. the organization has published its latest growth forecast. it has downgraded the rate at which it expects the global economy to grow. -- it warns that president trump tax policies are unsustainable. >> protectionism is painting a left and right future for the world. year's estimates this economic expansion at 3.7%, down from 3.9%% in july. the international lender says the tit-for-tat tariffs will take their toll. this is despite the u.s. enjoying a boost. the momentum,standing we have downgraded the 2019 growth forecast owing g to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of impmports. china's expected 2019 growth is also marked down. >> the imf expects the gdp growth to drop 1.8% by 2020. cuts willd the tax eventually turn negative. willr u.s. interest rates likely cause people to pull more money out of the emerging economies. seeingn nations are lower growth too. brexit is set to make a significant dent. the warning is the latest find yet that the recent strong run may be runnin

the imf boss says there is more choppy water coming. rishaad: the imf world bank meeting. the idea was policy meters must -- leaders must keep up reform. there are more hikes in the pipeline. >> there will be monetary tightening going forward because of improvement of the economy which is welcome and which helps, but monetary tightening will be affecting all the countries around the world, including those countries that have a good policy mix. you look at a country like indonesia, the policy mix is solid and numbers are good. but it is being affected because of this risk out there that financing costs will increase and tension will bring about some questions. more and more people talk about the possibility of another financial crisis. how much room do banks have to navigate another crisis? compare clear if you with previous crisis episodes, there is limited policy space, but there is a much stronger banking system. there has been strengthening of the capital base of money banking institutions, better supervision's, better regulations, less nonperforming loans and leverage

caroline: why is the imf given then?numbers are they trying to make us take -- stepback -- stead back? >> i think they do look at it and believe that some of these things can play out. is that you can look at how it differs from the contentious. there is a little too much pessimism in the imf. joe: ideologically driven economists, i find that hard to believe. i want to go back to inflation. did you ever find these goldilocks scenarios where inflation hits the target and sits there, but we have had people predicting inflation for a long time in this country. we have had people talk about employment for a long time. that has not materialized, in the fed has continued to wreck down a testament. what explains that? ofyou were to go postmortem these errors, what would you identify? >> when the crisis happened in 2008, a lot of people left the labor force. we thought they were unemployable and cannot come back. around 4ak, there were million or 5 million. the question was, how many of these will come back and hold wages down?

loweredingly, the imf its forecast for german growth. germany was one of the biggest downgrades of growth for this year from the imf. that does reflect the impact of trade wars. domestic demand is still strong. investment is growing. unemployment is low. consumers are spending. we do not have particularly extended concerns over the outlook for germany or the rest of the region. we think growth is going to stay at the trend pace this year, next year, the year after. policy is accommodated from the fiscal side. anna: let's talk about brexit. we saw the pound on the move. reports about what could be possible by monday. saying there are voices and monday saying something could be -- voicesf my monday in brussels saying something could be possible by monday. are you very focused on the near-term and what kind of deal we get? or are you thinking it's something comes soon, it will kick the can? >> we are looking minute by minute, hour by hour, week by week, year by year. the implications are very significant for the u.k. economy for years to co

haslinda is in bali at the imf meetings. haslinda: you are referring to david lipton of the imf. we have been talking about financials and vulnerabilities. the imf had its growth production for the world economy . let's get perspective from dr. lipton. saidrday, my conversation there was no conversation between the u.s. and china. could there be further applications on a downward projection of global growth because of that david: i hope not. we have been arguing for a long time that there ought to be a de-escalation of trade conflict and there ought to be dialogue. i think that is still the right path. parties have to be open, not just to dialogue but to change. which means where there is a need to modernize the trading system and for countries to address trade practices that really are damaging to other countries that may have not been , much a smaller economy, there has to be an openness to dialogue. so far, the impact of trade conflict has been on the global economy and has been small. the risk of sustained conflict with with rising uncertainty could be very problematic. we ur

of the imf talking at the moment. really about the situation of the world economy finds itself in. itsa has been letting currency fluctuate more. talking about trade wars and how they can be detrimental to all. it is taking place here in indonesia, so some of the focus country,on this talking about significant improvements, a good record on debt and fiscal policy. just putting it out to emerging markets as a whole. not real contagion taking place for emerging markets. obviously think that the differentiation between emerging markets they are able, she is taking questions at the moment from delegates talking about the strong world economy, but suggesting that it is not strong enough. the newsurrently coming out of this imf meeting out of bali. paul allen has first word headlines. paul: thank you. china is said to be planning to increase the number of companies it deems systematically important. is a sign are concerned about ballooning national debt. we are told regulators led by the pboc are on a short list for that ar

i think i am agreed with the imf production. telling pboc governor bloomberg in this interview on the currency that in terms of volatility he sees that as a fairly normal and expects to see a continued, reasonable trading range is how he described it for the rest of the year with the backdrop as he highlights and elevates a u.s. dollar. the currency, the renminbi was performing fairly well versus other developed and developing nations. the yuan is down 9% versus the u.s. dollar and is worth -- one of asia's worst currencies. the pboc governor highlighting what he sees as relative stability in terms of the growth picture in china, employment and inflation. we will get inflation numbers producing prices out, and we are expecting as well third-quarter gdp numbers towards the end of this week. we can get a better idea how those data points are shaping up . the pboc governor in the past stressed amongst other officials the currency will not be used as a weapon in the trade war. they would not be using devaluation to push back against

the imf says it expects u.s. growth to slow slightly next year if that leads to a weaker dollar, as it may, after the strength we've seen this year, what do you think that could mean for commodity producers outside the u.s. who both borrow in dollars and earn in dollars >> well, obviously bullish commodities and we'd put upper pressure on revenues like what we saw during 2000 what is interesting is we've been seeing the reverse over the course of the last 12 months with this downgrade in the imf, it's similar to a pattern we've seen in our forecast change in commodities. we take up the u.s. forecast for commodity demand, but at the same time take down china in the emerging markets this was the opposite of the pattern that we saw during the 2000s, where we take down the u.s., take up china and the em then you had higher commodity prices g revenue g, good revenu we're seeing taking up the u.s., down the emerging markets, and the trend is a stronger dollar so, what is the difference between those two environments in

the imf has cut its forecast for global growth. it is projecting the global economy will grow 3.7% this year and next. .2% from its forecast of three months ago. the imf blames an escalating trade war and stresses in emerging markets. the imf predicts that inflation in venezuela will hit a staggering one point 4,000,000% i the end of the year. that's more than 100 times faster than the estimates in january. the forecast is that venezuela's gdp will shrink by double digits. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. tech.: let's talk the $200 billion rout is entering uncharted territory. the chinese internet giant has lost more than any company worldwide. why this is such an important story. >> it is a combination of macro issues and issues that have -- first ofo with all we know that china is in a trade spat with the united states. the overall market is down this year. they have warned earlier about profit

the imf blames an escalating trade war and stresses emerging markets. we will have more on this coming up. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: the imf sees problems ahead for global growth because of trade disputes. that its outgoing chief economist says the forecast could turn around if the united states and china could come to terms of a trade. >> the possibility that china and the u.s. resolve their disagreements would be a significant upside to the forecast. at some level, it is not surprising that we are more tentative in our optimism than we were six month ago. david: we welcome now philip leavy. ofserved in the white house george w. bush. welcome. is there a chance we will have the of site because we come to term with -- terms with china? opposite. the is see the more entrenched in their positions. it would be nice if it would happen. i don't think it will. david: it looked pretty bad on nafta until i

the imf has warned that investors are underestimating the risk of a shock. finance ministers and central bankers gather in bali for the organization's annual meeting, and the imf has warned against increasel increase -- led by the u.s.. >> the confidence of global governance and global mechanisms of how a dispute should be settled is a really huge. and i do not think we can estimate that at this moment here. >> people tend to divert their trade to malaysia or two other regions. >> provider countries manage the policies they had those buffers. they should be able to ride this out. but no question, this will be a volatile journey. it will be for another 12 or 18 months. matt: this, as bloomberg sources say the united states may block britain from a 46 nation of public pyramid act. ct.procurement packed -- pa the reason for that is not protectionism, but what the u.k. voted for, brexit joining us now is bloomberg's government editor in london. stewart, it could be argued as to why the u.s. would do this they are saying the application does not look great, but i

i would not blame any selloff in with the imf says. they tend to be a little late to the forecasting game. i am not sure it is something equity investors are taking on board. what i would say these is the the president's's of jay powell in the fed, offering the following statistics and we go that in 1947 when the official national count figures in the united states, real gdp growth in the u.s., the third number which we get out at the end of the month is in line with the end of the fed estimate, roughly though year on year gdp growth will be 3.3%. right on the near-term -- the long-term average. u.s.,flation rate in the the cpi this morning was lower than expected, broadly speaking in line with the federal reserve forecast. in nearlys the lowest 49 years. despite all of this, the fed funds rate is lower than it was in any point between 1961 and 2001. if you want to call the fed policy crazy, crazy high is probably not how i would characterize it. remembering, a former central bank -- all central banks operate, part of a democratic inst