MARCH 1959
| CURRENT
BUSINESS
SURVEY OF CURRENT
Aye — S56
aa ps.
A
i>
2 lel
BUSINESS
PA
on fen Es
THE BUSINESS SITUATION
Introduction......
MARCH 1959
eeeneeee
Payments Excess in International Trade Continues High.
Exports Remain Low
SPECIAL ARTICLES
Busines
[a icturing Programs..
ranufacturing Industries
ition of 1958 Programs
les Anticipations..
Consun
Consumption Patterns.
mption-Income Relations
MONTHLY BUSINESS STATISTICS...
Statistical Index
Purchasing and Income Patterns.
inticipations of 1959 Investment and Sales....
. 5-1 to S—40
..+++imside back cover
Published moni
Secretary ‘; e of fusiness Eeonomi ¢ M ‘
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MARCH 1959
The VE ; S:; ’
USstnheESS thuation
By the Office of Business Economics
Business expects some recovery in
CAPITAL OUTLAYS in 1959...
Billion Dollars
50
TOTAL &
oo
> he
Me
‘ NONMANUFACTURING -
4
1953 54 55
but large SALES increases
Percent Change
10
1958-59"
Z
1957-58
actual
PUBLIC
MANUFACTURING TRADE UTILITIES
mmerce, Office of Business Economics
. :
;CONOMIC activity has continued to expand under th«
impetus of high consumer buying, a shift from inventory
liquidation to restocking by business firms, and higher
investment in both residential construction and industrial
plant and equipment. National output has been larger in
the first quarter, as the high rate of activity reached at
vearend was sustained or extended. The recovery in GNP
in the past year has been largely in real terms and the volume
of current output represents a new record for the economy,
appreciably in excess of the cyclical high reached in the
summer of 1957.
Employment has not changed much in the midwintet
months, aside from the usual seasonal variations. As com
pared with the corresponding period of a year ago, both
higher employment and longer hours of work have con
tributed to the enlarged output. New work force require
ments have not matched the gain in output-——-a phenomenon
typical of the earlier phase recovery periods—-so that while
unemployment has been reduced, the drop-off has not been
at a rate commensurate with the expansion of activity
Purchasing power has continued to rise. Personal income
in February was at an annual rate of $364% billion, up $1
billion from January, and $5 billion above the rate for the
fourth quarter. It was $12% billion, or 3% percent, abov
the previous high of the summer of 1957. The major part
of the expansion of incomes in the past year reflected a gain
In real buying power as consumer prices were up less than
1 percent.
Wages and salaries, which make up by far the major share
of the total, accounted for most of the gain in income over
the past vear. This stemmed from increases in employment
and hours worked, and from a continuing trend to higher
pay scales
Corporate profits—which are reflected im the personal
income flow only to the extent of dividend disbursements
are up sharply This national mcome component is espe
cially volatile, shrinking sharply m recessions and rebounding
in the same fashion as business improves. The lag in the
availability of basic data makes impossible the calculation
of corporate profits estimates with the same currency as thi
other income flows, but it is clear that the advance in
profits is contmuing
Consumer buying advances
As brought out in the article im this msue the cor slimmer
has been a prime factor in the business recovery, just as he
had been a sustaining influence in the preceding recession
Retail sales in January and February were at a seasonally
adjusted monthly rate of S17 billion, 2 percent above the
fourth quarter average and 7 percent above a year ago
The fourth-to-first quarter gain in sales reflects mainte-
7 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
nance of the nignelr volume of purchasing reached in the
Kaster sales re ports, for example,
record il March
are being purchased at
final months of 1958. Pre
point to a continumng cood
Most of the
rates above a year ago
autos have been selling at al
million, compares volume of 4
An important feature of thi
years has been the « x pande a uli ot foreign cars
far this year are at an an ial rate
total of 375.000. Only
were 30.000
Demand for oth
well
muior consumel line
Domestically produced new model
eXCeCSS of 5
1958
annual rate in
with a million in
automobile m cet in recent
Sales so
well above last year’s
imports ol foreign cars
sumer goods
acuivily is
has been
Sustamed LI
Shipments and New Orders
Durable-Goods Manufacturers
Major advance in steel
Billion Dollars Billion Dollars
i 7
Iron and Steel industrial Machinery
nelect
Fabricated Metals
Transportation Equipment Electrical Machinery
Except Mot
|
|
2 |
0
woo S37 58 59 1956 57 58
Monthly Totals, Seasonally Adjusted
U. S. Deportment
and building materials producers at the
March 1959
serving to support purchases of large ticket home items, such
as furniture and appliances. Demand for soft goods, which
was generally maintained during the downswing in activity
has moved well ahead of the prerecession level ,
Business investment higher
for fixed and working capital has firmed con-
siderably in recent months. As reported in our regular
annual survey in this issue, business expects to install a
moderately higher volume of plant and equipment in 1959.
The quarterly pattern of fixed capital outlays indicates
that the modest turnaround in such spending took place in
the final months of last year, and in the current quarter
outlays are scheduled to be about $1% billion, or 4 percent,
above the fourth quarter annual rate
Nonfarm residential building activity has been one of the
Construction
Demand
major expansionary forces in the economy)
put m place this quarter is expected to be at an annual rate
of around $22 billion—higher than in the fourth quarter, and
very considerably above the volume a@ year ago Private
housing starts, which lead activity by several months, have
been running at an annual rate of better than 1 million
units since last October; this compares with starts of around
900,000 a year ago.
I ‘actory stocks rise
shift in business investment programs
While part ol t dollar in-
creases represents highet replacem« nt cos he major share
consists of additions to goods on hand Thu ventory 1n-
vestment 1s currently adding to output in to early
1958 when final demand was being partly m v a drawing
stocks At the end of January
still $4 billion under the year-ago total TI
tion and improved sales have lowered t!
months at the end of Janu: 198 |}
The latter ratio
The mayor recent
}
has been in inventories
ISINeSS stocks
down ol
Weer’ is reduc-
ry-sales
ratio from 1.7
months this January
|
cOFe
mid-1955
since
ntrated in
indus-
Che early
manufacturing, pri
S SLOG ks ot
1959 inventory Investment we
cipally in the metal
nonelectrical machinery ] s and of
vehicle, electrical machine! and metais
Nar
tion equipment industries had contir
rth December: the
tie motol vroups
vere uD segments of the mac! and transporta-
!
ity lida-
1O! throug two gi ips nted fol
vroods
metal
were
billion reduct
Stocks hel
practically all of the $2
ventories ove! tiie
Veal
|
in most nondurable goods ind noderately
nur-ago hgures, about
and among food beverage comp: ( t! ig]
with those of pa
Thi ad
huary rise ih nondurabl
food il
(OOS
iemical industries
the d and nondurabl s grou] put
aterial were lnmcreases i 1 lor the
InterruptLor recent downtre oods
held by
several months of
coods produce! Os l ‘ ur
stability |
Cre broaden Yr OL Zoot
irre d
ve part, ment
primary metal companies
tories
l trial
Goods
re flecting the ri
Irhnaround inventory poli yar the
Ol siderable Strength im residential Dul iodest
ncKup in other tixed investment has parent
npact oO! coods
es, and
acurvily
steel out if and automobile
manulacturimg
more particularly in
March 1959 SURVEY OF
assemblies. Steel production reached a new peak in mid-
March with the industry operating at better than 90 percent
of capacity. No doubt a considerable factor in this picture
is the restocking of steel by users of that metal. These
stocks had been drawn down substantially during the
recession and early recovery phase of the cycle. However,
also of importance in the steel demand situation is the
forward buying now going on, occasioned by the possibility
of higher prices or a work stoppage later in the year.
Automobile production has also been notably in excess of
consumer demand for the past several months as manu-
facturers sought to refill dealer showrooms with new models
Some production schedules were curtailed in earlier months
by work stoppages on important component parts, but with
the recent settlement of the strike in the glass industry full
production is once again possible. Currently, dealer inven-
approaching desired levels and production may be
tories are
into line with sales to consumers and
expected to move
business users
Total manufacturing activity was tilting upward in the
first quarter. The pace of the recovery in factory output
was most rapid last summer and early fall, and in the last
several months moderating tendencies were in evidence
Foreign demand
nal markets have not been supplying any major
influence to the economy. Export demand was
in 1958 and thus far in 1959 there is no indi-
As shown in a following
there has
Internatio
stimulat
off moderately
cation of any significant change.
section which reviews international transactions,
been a marked shift in our trade position.
Government purchases up
ment purchases of goods and services appear to be
current quarter, principally reflecting
e and local governments. Federal
following closely the
in the
Gover!
up somewhat 1n the
a further increase by Stat
has tended to flatten out
ticipated in the Budget presentation early
last month’s SURVEY.
Govern! responding to the
pickup in profits and other income. Again
the revenue picture emerging to this point
is in line projections which involve a considerable
narrowing of the Federal deficit.
purchasing
pattern
year, ana rr ewed
substantial
as in the case
revenues are
ol expel aitures
Prices stable
The general wholesale price average so far this vear has
unchanged from a vear ago, and the consumer
ntinues to fluctuate within a narrow range.
prices rose to new peaks in early 1959, the
been virt
price ind¢
Stoc!
February being about percent above
third above a yea
average [tor January
that tl! yurth quarter and almost one
ields remain close to their postwar lows, the
changed recently with rising
fall-off in profits
flow of d ds not having
profits s they did not drop with
during the recessio1
The mo authorities early in March increased the dis-
count rat borrowing from the Federal Re-
serve third such action taken since
early last fall, and the current rate charged by the New York
bank is no percent compared with the low of 1% percent in
Long-term U.S. bond yields reached 4
new high for the postwar period, and
t percentage point above a year ago.
.?¢ d on bank
Svste This was the
ths ol
porat long -term bonds have not changed ap-
last fall and are currently about one-half of a
above a year ago.
CURRENT
BUSINESS
Manufacturers’ sales and orders
The rise in manufacturers’ sales and new orders has con-
tinued into early 1959—although the most recent figures
show some slackening in the rate of gain as compared with
earlier months of recovery. Incoming orders in January
were one-sixth above a year earlier, and just 5 percent off the
late 1956 peak. All major industries were receiving orders
in January well above year-earlier rates
Steel activity expands
January witnessed a sharp spurt in the ordering of iron and
steel products (see chart) and a more moderate advance for
nonferrous metals. In steel, incoming business expanded
by a third over the December seasonally adjusted rate.
This increase on top of the rapid acceleration in steel buying
during 1958 brought the January total to a record in terms
of both dollars and volume.
Backlogs on the books of iron and steel producers ad-
vanced sharply to bring the end-of—January aggregate well
above a year ago.
In fabricated metals, including structural products, heat-
ing and plumbing equipment, and builders hardware, there
was some expansion in sales and orders during January but
on a more moderate scale than in the iron and steel industry
Backlogs-sales ratios were still well below year-ago rates
Machinery orders up moderately
The nonelectrical machinery group, which had shown the
smallest from early 1958 troughs of any major
hard goods industry, reported an increase in the seasonally
adjusted rate of deliveries for the opening month of 1959
The flow of new orders group advanced nearly 10
percent. The bulk of the rise occurred among companies
producing agricultural, construction, mining, and office and
store equipment. The unfilled orders rise in January for
all nonelectrical machinery companies held the backlog-sales
ratio over the month relatively unchanged following a
considerable decline.
In electrical machinery, sales showed little change in Janu
ary, While orders and backlogs edged off. This industry re-
acted only moderately to the recent recession and has since
shown strength The backlog sales ratio for the electrical
machinery group is close to that of a year ago primarily
on the performance of companies i the radio-electronics
communications field
recovery
to the
Divergence in transportation equipment
Activity in nonautomotive transportation in recent months
has reflected divergent
In the dominant
{ among component mn
sales of commercial
tantially whereas de
movemel
clustries aircraft area
iL tplanes and ol missiles have risen s ib
liveries of military aircraft have declined
Sales and backlogs of unfilled orders have been improving
her types of transporta
although January figures were still well be-
Trends in this industry reflect the turn
companies
in recent months for produ ers ot ot
tion equipment,
low year-ago rates
up im nmvestment programs ol transportation
reported elsewhere in this SURVEY
Sales of at ndurable
erate but rather steady upturn
cent them recession low The
yroups have recorded the largest relative
im part reflecting their sharper previous declines. During
January there was further rise in deliveries by these
industries. The paper and chemical industries reached new
sales records in the late fall and early but January
little
coods produce have shown il mod
and in January were 10 per-
above petroleum and textile
improvements
SoOTnEC
winter
deliveries were off
Payments Excess in International Business
Continues High
UNITED States international payments exceeded receipts
by nearly $800 milli in th I f 1958 resulting
in a corre pol a d dollar hold-
taken by
ings About >
was ke pt
foreign countrir
in various fort
Total net p
i(wo precedit
oy the
to the
annual service ember and to
various other for seasonal
factors, net payment were | nore thal during the
earlier part of r $4 billion at ar
annual rate)
For 1958 as a whol het pay nt wel about
billion, of W hie ! é bill
Although « Ler! trans? I Luring 1958
resulted in a nts aite!
allowance for
trend after the
and payments wel i
Recorded payme! { I is irom 3 lnira
$25.8 billion in the first quarter 98 to about $27.6 billion
in the last quarte! The latt uid Hay 1a new high
except for certal cial transact 3 Ww! aised payments
during the
billion. (Large
loans and investments in ol mes ns i eZUE
about $1.4 billion at 3 annus at to our payments at
that time.)
Recorded ree
$3.4
a Tising
receipts
recession
( ol about
vuarter oO 7 tt ‘ ea ite of S285
ol le I ad lease
secona
la added
payments,
from an annual rate quartel ol
Table 1.—U.S. Balance of Payments Seasonally Adjusted (Exclud-
ing Military Grant Aid)
U.S. payments, total
Impor tot
US. receipts, total
Export t
MI
}
1 '
Errors and omission
Increase in foreign gol«
through = transactic
States
1958 to $23.6 billion in the last quarter. This was about
$1.8 billioft under the rate a year earlier and $4.5 billion
below the recent peak rate of $28.1 billion in the first quartet:
of 1957 (which was unusually high, however, because of
many extraordinary transactions
As the vear progressed, the rise in recorded rec ipts sea-
gradually approached the rise in recorded
inter-
sonally adjusted
payments, and in the last quarter both sid
national accounts increased by about the same amount
if continued, 1 | { that
While this development,
national
the highest point in the net payments o1
transactions has been reached, and that the balance on our
foreign transactions from now on will gradually improve,
such a conclusion may still be premature Special and
may have affected recent trans-
possibly temporary factors
to rather different
actions; the rise in payments was duc
types of transactions from the rise in recé pts
Imports rise to new high
Merchandise imports advanced from the first to the fo irth
quarter by $2.1 billion at an annual rate, and other purchases
by $600 million Most important among the latter were
military expenditures which reached a peak in the third
quarter (due to large payments on construction contracts
but came down somewhat in the fourth. The rise in the
outflow of funds through higher purchases abroad was, in
part, offset, however, by a moderate decli in the net out
flow of private capital
Merchandise Imports, which after seasonal adjustme
advanced from the first to the second quarter and remained
nt, had
at the higher level during the third quarter, ros
sharply during the last quarter of the vear After having
been below the previous peak annual rat ' $13.4 billion
reached in the latter half of 1957, for a ps 1 of about a
vear, merchandise imports passed the earlier high and ad
vanced to a rate of $13.8 billion per year in the last 3 months
ol 1958
‘| he large Veur-el
about $12.9 billion
“gain
id Increase brought ti total oO! G58 to
less than $200 mil percent
omitting the sp mports
bye low the previous year
mentioned earlie!
The 1957-58 decline was considerably
the previous high considerably fast
; 4 recessio! At that time \
% quarters before the previous pea
as during the
larters although prices were declining
that the fourth quarter 1958 figure
more recent reces
March 1959
accumulation of transactions so that a relapse may still occur
in the early part of this year.
The most recent rise in imports can be attributed only in
part to the recovery in industrial production.
The major raw materials which were imported in larger
volume in the last quarter of 1958 than during the cor-
responding period of 1957 were wool, sawmill products, and
wood pulp. The rise of $32 million in these imports re-
flected mainly the higher activity in residential construction
and in the woolen textile and paper industries.
Of the major metals and metal ores, imports of copper rose
by nearly one-third from the third to the fourth quarter of
1958, but were still less than in the last quarter of 1957.
However, relatively low inventories and a firming of prices
which continued into 1959 suggest that the fourth quarter
more than seasonal advance. Nickel
imports dropped off sharply from the third quarter because
of strikes in Canada. Only tin imports were slightly higher
in the fourth than in the previous quarter and a year earlier.
Imports of iron ore, manganese, tungsten, lead, zine, and
bauxite were less than a year ago, although for some of these
metals imports rose slightly from the third to the fourth
quarte!
In the aggregate, imports of metal ores and refined metals
during the fourth quarter of 1958 were about $20 million
less than in the third, and about $80 million lower than in
the last quarter of 1957. With allowance for seasonal
factors and the interruption in nickel production, it seems
that the drop in such imports was halted in the fourth
quarter, but that any recovery was very slight and selective.
Of other major raw materials, imports of rubber rose
considerably in the fourth quarter of 1958, but still remained
smaller than a year earlier; imports of hides, skins, and furs
were up from the last quarter of 1957.
Although imports of raw materials at the end of 1958 did
not quite reflect the increase in industrial production, it
may be recalled that the effects on imports of the downswing
in production during 1957 were also delayed by many months
during which large inventories were accumulated. Also, in
the case of many commodities the impact of the decline in
demand was greater on domestic production than on imports
and it may be expected, therefore, that the upswing in
demand would stimulate domestic output more than imports.
The recent rise in imports appears to have been due mainly
to higher purchases of commodities other than raw materials.
some ol hese increases may be due to special, temporary
factors, and some to more basic trends not related to cyclical
rise constitutes a
factors
Petroleum
$50 million
imports in the fourth quarter of 1958 were up
from the previous quarter and by the same
last quarter of 1957. Much of the rise
December and appears to have been
amount from the
which ( I n
slightly than seasonal, was perhaps due to accelerated
buying
in Maré
Import
nticipation of mandatory quotas imposed early
meat products cattle, and fish were about $50
million a year earlier, but only slightly more
than in the rd quarter of 1958. The rise in import demand
for these products which started in the latter part of 1957
Cocoa imports were up
than
apparel tl lost most of its force.
million over the third quarter, and $9 million
quarter of 1957— reflecting relatively low in
the earlier part of 1958. Sugar imports dropped
than usual from the third to the fourth quar-
well above the fourth quarter of 1957 The
i earlier in the vear and the decline in Puerto
on were responsible for most of the import rise
by about
fourth quarter of 1958 were
pts during the
Most of the change was in
than a year earlier.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 5
prices which declined from 47 cents to 40 cents a pound
The volume was about 3 percent less than in the last quartet
of 1957, when it was relatively high to make up for post-
poned imports earlier in that year and to replenish inven-
tories. At the end of 1958 a comparable increase in stocks
did not take place. In fact, yearend stocks were the lowest
since 1954. Thus, the volume of imports in 1959 will have
to be maintained even to meet current consumption require
ments. The continued decline in prices, however, may hold
down the value of imports
Total foodstuff rose somewhat more than seasonally from
the third to the fourth quarter of 1958 and thus contributed
to the overall rise in seasonally adjusted imports. However,
at least part of this rise appears to have been due to tem
porary factors.
Most of the upswing in total imports may be attributed to
higher purchases of machinery and vehicles, iron and steel
mill products, other durable producers and consumer goods,
and gem diamonds. Imports of these commodities were up
about $150 million, or one-third, from the corresponding
quarter of 1957—by about the same amount as total met
chandise imports. in part this may be attributed to the
rise in incomes and consumer expenditures and, as in the
case of the higher steel imports and capital goods, to larger
business expenditures. To some extent, however, the in
crease reflects changes in domestic consumer preferences,
and in the competitive position of foreign products. These
changes became evident earlier but were intensified last year
and are largely independent of the cyclical upswing.
Summing up these various trends, it appears that a decline
may be anticipated in imports which were temporarily en
larged by special factors, particularly those of petroleum and
certain foodstuffs. The downward trend in coffee prices
may also result in lower import values. These declining
tendencies may be more than offset by the upward trend in
imports of manufactured goods which so far has not shown a
tendency to flatten out, and by some rise in lagging imports
of raw materials for durable goods industries. The result,
however, will be a slower rise than at the end of last year
Diverse trends in capital outflow
The aggregate net outflow of private capital during 1958
was about $2.9 billion, only $300 million less than in 1957.
The composition, however, changed considerably. Direct
investments fell from $2.1 billion to about $1.1 billion, while
other capital outflows increased from $1.1 billion to $1.8
billion.
The $1 billion drop in new direct investments affected
primarily the petroleum and manufacturing industries. The
decline in petroleum investments— from about $1.3 billion in
1957 to approximately $600 million in 1958—-was in part due
to the lack of large new cash outlays such as the purchases
of oil concessions in Venezuela, which in 1957 absorbed about
$360 million. The completion of major pipeline projects in
Canada was another factor in the decline
Capital outflows to manufacturing enterprises which in
1957 amounted to $370 million were reduced by about one
half in 1958. A large part of the decline was due to lesset
capital requirements in the aluminum industry which ob
tained relatively large amounts of new capital in 1957
These declines affected mainly Latin Ame rica, where direct
mostly in the petroleum industry—dropped by
$700 million, and Canada where they were $230 million less
Net capital outflows through direct investments to Kurope
were moderately lower and to Asia and Africa slightly highet
The decline of new direct investments from the previous
1
high occurred largely toward the end of 1957 when industrial
Although much
investments
expansion Was falling off in manv countries
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
March 1959
Table 2.—t
.S. Balance of Payments by Areas—
Western European dependen
IT | Ulrr {ty
Exports of goods and services a5, Cf oS 092 5 78 2,015 2
total
, 223 1, 880 2, 160
Military transfers under f 5 5 5 487 4101
grants, net, total
Other goods and services % , O75 5. 5 5 > } 6,791 1,614 1
total
Merchand
lodir
rar
10 Direct
I! Other priva
12 Government
13 | Imports of goods and services
tota
4 Merchand
cluding 1
Government
Balance on goods and services
ota
Excluding military transfers
Unilateral transfers, net
foreign countries
Total
Excluding military trans
fers
71 491
153| — 216
Private remittance
Government
Military
ery ice
Other grant
Pen
transfer
U.S. capital, net [outflow of
funds . total
Private, net, total
Direct ir
New is
tedempt
Other lor
hort-tert et
Government, net, total
Long-tern
Repayt
hort-ter
Foreign capital, net [outflow
of funds total
Direct and
folio in
than |
ecuritie
Transact
ernmer
hort-term
eign t
tution
Other short-te
al
Gold sales (purchases
the United States
47 | Foreign capita
48 | Errors and omissions and
transfers of funds between
foreign areas ([receipta by
foreign areas net
Memorandut
1} Increase tr
| foreign g
| liquid de
2 Through «
* Revised » Pre
1. Reported gold
2. Equals baiance
individual area
March 1959
1957 Annual;
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
1958 Annual, and by Quarters
Latin American republ
1958
[Millions of dollars]
All other countries
Year? |
International institutions
1, 469
24
, 445
, 059
163 118 176 ~ 535 —s4
1, 469
28
1,441
|
1, 039
—81|
®
5
D5
f 119
.
|
—210; —1600
5, 375|
3, 954)
466
34}
191
85
Sl
515
3s
31
5,509, 1, 397)
|
ae
4, 563)
3, 169
415)
represents gold obtained by foreign countries outside the United
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
lable 3.—U.S
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Balance of Payments with the Sterling Aream—1957 Annual; 1958
Annual, and by Quarters
Exports of
ATilit
Other goods anc
Mf
r
Imports of goods and services, total
Mor
Balance on goods anc
Total
Excluding military
transfers foreig:
Unilateral
untries
rot
Excluding military transfers
| ‘
U.S. capital, net
total
Private, net
Dir t
total
Covernment, net, total
|
Foreign capital funds
total
Cold
United Stat
sales (purchases
Foreign capital and
nss nes
11 116
ness; nss nss nse
63 lf 15 16
i
nse
M4
nse
61
nss
nss
nss
128
March 1959
smaller than in the previous year, direct investments within
the year 1958 were rather stable, and in the last quarter were
even slightly higher than a year earlier.
Other capital outflows, particularly new issues of foreign
securities, were at a postwar record, but reached their high
point during the first half of 1958 and fell off during the latter
part of the year. Although there was some revival of new
issues during the last quarter of the year, partly in conform-
ance with the usual seasonal pattern, the broad trend re-
flected the changes in the capital market from relatively
favorable conditions early in the year to a tighter money sup-
ply and higher interest rates during the second half.
The net outflow of funds through medium- and short-term
credits showed a somewhat similar pattern. Such loans
reached a peak in the last quarter of 1957, stayed rather high
through the second quarter of 1958, and then dropped sharply
during the second half of the year. In the last quarter of
1958, the net outflow of such funds was down to $34 million,
compared with $212 million a year earlier.
The tightening of the capital market and rise of interest
rates, which in itself discourages borrowing, was also in con-
trast to the relative expansion of available capital and the
decline in interest rates in certain parts of Europe. These
tendencies continued into 1959. As long as these conditions
prevail, the outflow of capital from the United States through
new issues of bonds or loans is likely to remain comparatively
low
In contrast to these forms of capital movements, the out-
flow of funds through purchases of outstanding foreign secu-
mainly stocks, increased steadily during 1958. Pur-
chases of foreign stocks were stimulated by their higher
vields compared with domestic stocks, and by the desire of
nvestors to diversify their portfolio. During the
last quarter of 1958 recorded net purchases of foreign stocks
were over $90 million. A further increase of investments in
European stocks was reported for January.
The net outflow of funds through Government grants and
capital transactions in 1958 was almost the same as in the
preceding year. The net accumulation of foreign cur-
rencies through the sale of agricultural products declined
during the vear and changed to a reduction of such holdings
during the last quarter. Sales of agricultural products for
foreign currencies during this quarter were higher than a
vear earlier, but the utilization of such currencies for grants,
loans, and other Government operations overtook current
rities,
domestic
acqulsitlo!
Disbursements by the Export-Import Bank increased
during the year, although the fourth quarter was not quite
so high as t! third, when large disbursements were made to
Brazil and the Bank took over from private United States
banks a la ore loan LO Colombia.
EXPORTS REMAIN LOW
The e in seasonally adjusted receipts during 1958 from
low point in the first quarter was mainly the result of
el nes on United States private investments abroad
ous services transactions. The rise in invest
from
neomes, however, reflected only in part higher current
About $75 million of
obtan ed during the last quarter of the year was
he foreign enterprises
ilie¢ to a dend disbursements of foreign subsidiaries of
Americ: prior years. The
cone frrures lo! the
recent rise 1n tax liabilities to Venezuela
‘
ompanies from earnings in
entire year have been reduced to
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 9
Seasonally adjusted, exports during the last quarter of
1958 were at an annual rate of about $16.2 billion, approxi-
mately the same as during the first three quarters of the
year. The rise in actual exports from $3.8 billion in the
third quarter to $4.2 billion in the fourth appears to have
been not more than the normal seasonal movement. Com-
pared with the corresponding period of 1957, the decline
narrowed down from 20 percent in the first quarter to 10
percent in the fourth. For the year as a whole, exports
were about 16 percent smaller than in 1957.
Although seasonally adjusted figures for
details are not available, comparisons with the corresponding
quarters of the preceding year indicate certain differences in
export developments.
During the early part of 1958 the decline from the previous
year was most pronounced for agricultural products, coal,
petroleum, copper, iron and steel mill products, and scrap.
Foreign sales of finished manufactures fell only by 4 percent
Exports of agricultural products other than cotton changed
in trend, however, and by the last quarter were about 6
percent higher than a year earlier
The year-to-year decline in petroleum exports was much
smaller in the latter part of 1958 than during the first half,
when it reflected the disappearance of the extraordinary
exports early in 1957 follow ing the closing of the Suez ( ‘anal
However, petroleum exports continued to drop even after
these extraordinary shipments had stopped
For coal, as well as iron and steel mill products, the export
decline seems to have continued although perhaps at a slower
rate than earlier in the year. Large stocks of coal in Europe
and recent import restrictions imposed to protect local
production, as well as the growing use of fuel oil, will depress
the demand for coal from this country still further. Scrap
exports have dropped to a very low point early in 1958; the
decline since then has been relatively small
Cotton exports, however, which seemed to be stabilizing
earlier in the year, dropped again compared with 1957 during
the last quarter of 1958 and, percentagewise, were even far-
ther below the previous vear as during the first quarter
For machinery and vehicles, comprising the major part of
the exports of manufactured goods, the decline from a year
ago widened considerably during the second quarter of 1958
but narrowed somewhat during the latter half of the year
Within that group exports of construction machinery, tra
tors, miscellaneous industrial machinery, new passenger cars,
and civilian aircraft indicate a continued weakening in
foreign markets
Electrical machinery and equipment
equipment) maintained their foreign sales
metalworking machinery including
to rise Shipments of railroad equipme nt were also higher
than in 1957, but most of these shipments were financed
under Government-aid programs
Foreign markets for chemicals
strengthened somewhat curing 1958
commodity
including household
and exports ol
machine tools continued
also appeared 1o have
Exports at the end of
the year were slightly above (hose a year earlier, whereas
in earlier quarters they had been smaller. The gain was
mainly in industrial chemicals, while medicinals were gen
erally weaker
The stability in exports thus appears
rises in agricultural products other than cotton
and in certain specialized industrial products such as metal
to have been due to
coppel
working machinery and certain chemicals for which foreign
demand continued to expand or our products are technically
These
ot cotton
more advanced than those of competing countries
rises were offset, however, by declining
fuels, and other industrial products, but for many of these
products the rate of decline slowed down toward the end
of the year
‘ xports
10 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS March 1959
This general patter do¢ t vet dicate il early re- conversion of such holdings into gold. During the first
covery in export In fact, January 192 <ports were still half of 1958 about $1.2 billion of Government securities were
8 percent below those in Janu: sold by foreigners but about the same amount was purchased
during the second half of the year.
Gold outflow slou ed Another factor may have been the need for dollars by the
: United Kingdom to meet the annual service charges of
Although th { pa bal: corded transac nearly $200 million on the United States and Canadian
tions increased | ‘ iarter of 1958 than in the postwar loan due at the end of the year. Dollar funds of a
preceding quarter and declin at in last quarter, similar magnitude will be required by the United Kingdom
this developme! wa y reflected in the outflow of this spring to repay a part of the 1956 dollar drawings from
gold and dollar he res was the relatively wide fluctua the Monetary Fund.
tions in the net of unrecorded transaction Errors and Preliminary estimates (reflected in memorandum lines 1
Omiussions”’ For the year 1958 a whole, these residual and 3 of table 2 in the columns for “All areas’’) also indicate
transactions amounted to net receipts of about $380 million that relatively large amounts of gold from sources outside
This represents a considerable drop from net receipts of the United States became available during the last quarter
about S$SS80 million u 1957 and also from the re siduals in of the vear, thus lessening the demand for U.S cold The
1955 and 1956 share of gold in the total foreign gold and dollar gains was
To a certain extent this residual in the balance of payments about the same in the third and fourth quarters
reflects recurring transactions for which estimates cannot he About $3.7 billion of the $4.3 billion total gold and dollar
made. The large increase in 1957, however, suggests certain cains in 1958 by all countries (including about $840 million
special receipt bably as a result of capital movements in gold acquired from other sources than the United States)
from Kurope to tl United State vhich escape d the usual was accumulated in Western Kurope. Canada rain d about
recording procedur Such capital movements occur gen $180 million, Japan $375 million, and the international
erally in times of financial and political uncertainties. institutions about $450 million. Latin America, however,
The drop in the residual in 1958 may reflect some net re lost about $330 million of its gold and dollar holdings.
turn flow of capital Howevel! { a net balance and The area distribution of foreign gold and dollar rains
consequently may be compose 3s currents in such changed relatively little during the year, with Europe con-
capital transaction Thus, the capital to tinuing to absorb by far the largest shar Within Europe,
Kurope may have bee! eonsiderabdDly tare thal suggested however, the gains of the United Kingdom were hirhest in the
bv the size of the overall residual and offset by inflows from second quarter and slowed down during the second half of
other parts of the world, particularly the Far East earlier in the year, while those of Italy rose throughout the year
f of the year The large rise in European reserves during 1958 followed
|
1958 and Latu America during the second hal
The rather low residual during the last quarter of 1958 may a period of more than a year during which many countries in
in part be due to purchases of foreign stocks by United States the area lost reserves or had to incur short-term debts The
residents which were not made through United States brokers rise was large enough, however, to permit a further liberali-
f r
or banks and, therefore, were not reported by them zation of exchange restrictions and to enable most European
Although net dollar payments to foreign countries re- countries to make their currencies, if held by residents of
mained at a quarterly rate of nearly $1 billion beginning with other countries, convertible.
the second quartel of the vear, the outflow ol cold declined Although reserves of some of the major Kuropean countries
steadily from the second quarter peak. The decline con are still low relative to the size of their foreign transactions
tinued into this year, and in February foreign gold purchases and commitments, the continued increase of European gold
had virtually topped ‘| hie des line comecided With a rise in and dollar holdings made it possible also for the various
interest rates in the United States which made holdings of countries to adopt measures to stimulate their economic
United States Government securities or time deposits in activity The liberalization of trade and a faster expansion
banks more remunerative, and consequently increased the in business activity should—in time—have favorable reper-
potential loss in interest incomes which would result from the cussion on our exports
by Murray F. Foss +
Business Anticipations of
1959 Investment and Sales
BustvessMEN expect to make a moderate increase in
their plant and equipment expenditures this year, according to
the 1959 annual survey of investment and sales anticipations
conducted by the Office of Business and the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The scheduled rise is $1 billion, or
4 percent, more than last vear.
The corresponding expectation for 1959 sales is for a 9-
percent increase in manufacturing and public utilities, and
for a 6-percent rise in trade.
The capital expansion for 1959 centers largely in manu-
facturing, the airlines, and gas utilities. Most of the other
major industry divisions expect little change. Public
utility spending will be close to the 1957 record, while the
airlines, with large deliveries of jet aircraft coming, will
make record capital outlays.
Table 1.—Percent Change in Plant and Equipment Expenditures
The quarterly figures indicate a rise from a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of $30 billion in the fourth quarter of
1958 to $31 billion in the first 3 months of 1959 and about
$32 billion in the second quarter,
The survey data also suggest an annual rate of expenditure
in the second half of this year not much different from that
expected for the second quarter. To judge from past ex-
perience the realization of the implied second half rate of
expenditure will depend largely on the course of business
activity through the year, and the prospects thus suggest
that there may be an expansion of plans as the year develops.
Of the past 5 years, for example, for example, in the reces-
sion years of 1954 and 1958, expenditures were, respectively,
about the same and a few percentage points lower than im-
plied; in 1957 spending was slightly lower as a result of the
general downturn in the fourth quarter of that year. By
O88 IS ASSISTANT CHIEF, BUSINESS STRUCTURE DIVI
OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS
way of contrast, actual second half expenditures were more
than 10 percent greater than implied in 1955 when the econ-
omy recovered and rose to new highs, and a few percent higher
in 1956, when the investment boom was in full swing
While the annual change from 1958 to 1959 is not large and
reflects a measure of uncertainty about future developments,
the quarterly data indicate that there has been a distinct
change in attitude by business toward capital expenditures
over the past few months. First, actual investment in the
fourth quarter was the same as the amount projected 3
months ago—a change from the pattern of downward re-
vision which had been evident since the final quarter of 1957
Second, businessmen have made an upward revision in spend
ing for the first quarter of this year—again, in contrast
with the recent experience.
Quarterly changes
The 1957-58 investment downturn reached its low in the
third quarter of 1958, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of expenditure of $29.6 billion—some $8 billion less than
the high of four quarters earlier. The fourth quarter of last
year reflects divergent movements, with small decreases in
manufacturing and railroad investment more than offset
by a large rise for airline equipment and small increases
elsewhere.
The $2 billion rise in the seasonally adjusted annual rat
that business expects from the fourth quarter of 1958 to the
second quarter of this year would bring the total back to
where it was last spring. The advance is scheduled about
equally in both durable and nondurable manufacturing
groups. The gas utilities plan a sizable expansion over this
period
A number of factors may be cited in explanation of the
currently reported intentions. Broadly speaking the pickup
in investment is related to the recovery in overall economic
conditions, with the marked improvement in sales and earn
ings from the recession low points; in turn, these develop
ments have riven rise to favorable expectations for sales and
profits in the near-term. New orders have been rising, the
decline in unfilled orders has been reversed. Profits in pat
ticular have recovered sharply since the first half of last year
with a resultant favorable effect on the liquidity position of
business.
Not all of the currently planned increase stems directly
from the recovery. For example, in the case of the airlines
the large investment rise is primarily of an autonomous
nature, stemming from technological though the
improvement in general business facilitate its
financing
The most important factor that has tempered the mag
nitude of the recovery in investment is to be found in the
degree of unused capacity in the economy, notably in manu
1]
change,
should
-
facturing Ir industries capacity 1s
quite ample to sati irrent and neal
quirements \ easures of capacity are
lacking In many ines novlor [ we stand is
provided by a ompa t rroduction with
the peaks reached
If the top l rie
term production re-
overall output
Plant and Equipment Expenditures
Total Manufacturing
Ai
ad .
a
a )'
*<
Investment Expansion in Early 1959
is Widespread in Manufacturing
f
Nondurable Goods
Manufacturing
~ Durable Goods
Manufacturing
4
Utility and Commercial Outlays Stabilize —
Transportation Industries Rise
20
59 60
t Annual! Rates
12 SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESS March 1959
but by the individual high reached in each industry, it ap-
pears that in durable-goods manufacturing, the aggregate of
these high marks is well above the rate of prod iction in early
1959. although in nondurables, the combined high is little
different from current output
The significant point however, is that these peaks were
generally reached more than 2 vears ago, so that subsequent
capacity installations which continued with the re-
duced investment in 1958 current
Even allowing for the fact that under-
full « apacity opera-
still eX-
even
must be added to rauce
capacity. industry
takes new expansion at some point below
tions—and business, according to the latest survey
pects an improvem nt in output in 1959 over current
that output must
nvestment plans
rates
of operation it seems reasonable to assume
increase further betore major increases
will be needed
Aside from physical requirements industry may be ex-
pected to make further investment for new products, to step
up its outlays for modernization and cost-cutting and to
meet the needs of changing veographic markets
Manufacturing Programs
since last spring manufacturing sales and output have re-
gained much of the ground lost in the recent recession and
manufacturing firms are now scheduling a rise in expendi-
villion, or 7 percent, Ove! 1958. With few
advance,
tures of almost $1
exceptions all industries are contributing
to the
as may be seen in table 2.
Last of about
billion less than the record expenditure made tn and
two-thirds of the aggregate decline in
If rough allow-
roods, the
post war
vear’s outlay $11% billion was some $4%
1957,
accounted for about
plant and equipment expenditures in 1958
Is made for changes in the cost ol |
manufacturing outlay was lower than in all
1949 and 1950
firm, the lareest
more-than-averauge
ears except
By size of companies
projecting a increase from 1958 t 1959
\\ hile the
average advances
medium and
This pattern is the reverse of the
changes in plant and equipment expenditures that oc¢
from 1957 to 1958
spending somewhat more than the overall
cent, the programs were r‘
portionally
companies cut spending
less-than-
actual
irred
then
25 per
small companies ¢
when the large compal s reduced
aeciine of
| }
auced
pro-
companies’
small
medium
ibout the same as the ager and the
relatively least ol
lable 2.—Percent Change in Manufacturing Plant and Equipment
Expenditures, by Industry, 1957-58 and Anticipated 1958-59
Manufacturing
Durable-goods industries
I
I
Ele
Nondurable-goods industries
I i i} ;
(
|
March 1959
Small firms apparently picked up their seasonally adjusted
rate of expenditures a little after midyear 1958 as the
recovery progressed, The large companies, which in many
industries were in a downward phase of major programs, as
a group continued to reduce spending in the second halt.
Table 3.—Realization of Investment Programs, by Industry, 1955-58
Actual as Percent of Anticipated Expenditures
| 19
Total 106 100
A breakdown of the anticipated capital expenditures in
manufacturing into plant and equipment shows that equip-
ment is scheduled to rise about 10 percent over 1958. Con-
including oil-well drilling outlays of
ileum refiners) is expected to show little change
gh if the petroleum companies are excluded a
struction expenditures
the large pet
In 1959, alt
moderat« ecrease in construction is indicated.
Durable-goods industries
Investment in durable-goods industries on a seasonally
rterly basis declined more than 40 percent from
its peak in the recent investment downturn. Current
schedules indicate a rise in the seasonally adjusted annual
rate of close to $1 billion—or 18 percent—from the fourth
quarter ol 1958 to the second quarter of 1959, and a further
increase is implied for the final 6 months of the year.
lron and steel produc ers expect to spend about as much in
1959 as tl did last year, when investment declined almost
one-third from the 1957 peak. The year 1958 marked a
completion phase for most steel companies programs and
the 7-million ton increase in ingot capacity in 1958 was almost
as large n the preceding year. With steel output up
sharply from the lows of 1958 many steel companies are now
adjusted qua
activating ew programs
Of all major manufacturing industries, nonferrous
metals is the only one anticipating a decline from 1958 to
1959. Much of the year-to-year decrease in this group is
accounted for by the fact that a major new aluminum
producing facility was completed last vear; with this and
the other completions there was a 400,000-ton increase in
aluminum capacity in 1958.
Despit improvement in sales so far in
year ago, the motor vehicle industry is still operating con-
siderably below output peaks reached in 1955. Producers
in this industry are expecting a rise in capital outlays of
almost one-fourth but from the extremely low 1958 figure.
Deflated tment in this group last year was lower than
in all postwar years except 1949, and 1958 current dollar ex-
were even below depreciation allowances for the
\ 20-percent increase in investment is scheduled
producers of transportation equipment other than auto-
biles. The implied seasonally adjusted expenditure rate
cond half is within 10 to 15 percent of previous
1959 over a
pe nditur
industr’
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Electrical machinery companies are scheduling a sizable
increase in investment over 1958. Examination of the
quarterly data for 1958 indicates that the decline from the
late 1956 peak was over by the third quarter of 1958; the
defense program, continued strength in publie utility de-
mand, and the recovery in consumer appliance sales were
the major influences in the reversal of trend in outlays.
Manufacturers of machinery other than electrical, on the
other hand, have scheduled only a small rise in expenditures
over 1958 with a rising trend evident for the current year.
A good part of the annual
producers of farm machinery,
considerable buovancy in the last half year,
sales of industrial machinery
increase 1S accounted for by
which have shown
in contrast with
sales of
Investment up in nondurable goods
The nondurable-goods industries recovered comparatively
quickly from the lows in produ tion and sales in the 1958
downturn, and by the end of last vear a number of important
groups had achieved a rate of sales ¢ qual to or above previous
highs This development Was an important influence in the
stabilizing of investment in this field in the second half of
1958. The earlier t-quarter 30 percent decline in outlays,
after seasonal adjustment, while sizable, was less than in
durables and briefer.
Petroleum firms expect to increase their capital outlays
this vear about 13 percent over 1958, to $2.7 billion: this
amount is still well below the record expenditure of almost
$3.5 billion in 1957. In 1958, company
declined for the first time since 1949 Finished stocks ac
cumulated, especially in the first half of the
finery operations were reduced so that relative capacity
utilization was the lowest since World War II
sale
UiCS
petrol 1h
year; and re
Table 4.—Anticipated Percent Increases in Manufacturers’ Sales,
by Industry 1958-59
Total
Durable goeds
N
Ek
Machinery
rransportat
Stone, clay
Nondurable goods
The reductions in investment last year were relatively large
for production, transportation, and refinery facilities while
spending for the less: important categ marketing and
other facilities—-was fairly well maintained From the peak
annual rate of $3'% billion the decline to the third quarter of
1958 was almost 40 percent, to the lowest rate of outlays by
this industry since early 1951.
The general improvement in the
favorable inventory position, and the unusually cold weather
last December resulted in an improvement in demand and
profits, which was reflected in a stepped-up rate of outlay
in late 1958. The seasonally adjusted data for 1959 indicate
a generally rising trend through the year
ories
economy, the more
14
The 7-percer
industry reflect
and pharmaceut
recession, exper
primarily in thy
further decreas
completed
The rise of
producers reve
the seasonally
CURRENT BUSINESS March 1959
hemicals
Drug
by the
MMpanles
a iling i
al
I
(
il
be iy
textile
tinent
alte!
Manufacturing Plant and
Equipment Expenditures
Billion Dollars (ratio scale
Primary Metols
Petroleum
Motor Vehicles
Electrical Machiner
Machinery Food & Beverages
opt Ele
Transportation Equipment
Except Mot eb
1955 56 57 58 59
Quvorters, Seasonally Adjusted, at Annval Rates
® Anticipated
U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
mid-1958 and is continuing through the second quarter of
1959. Although some falling off is suggested in the second
half, it should be noted that the industry typically does not
hold firm to its investment expectations Paper and paper
products companies’ investment is expected to be slightly
higher im 1959 Realization of the increase sched iled in the
first quarter this vear would be the first seasonally adjusted
advance of consequence in approximately ; ars
With sales of the food-beverage group at record highs last
vear, 1958 investment was cut considerably less than in other
industries; little change is anticipated in 1959 Alter the
first quarter of 1958 seasonally adjusted investment pi ked
up and then stabilized An increase is scheduled in the first
half of this vear although a reduction l t
second half, attributable largely to reductions by
col panies
Nonmanufacturing Industries
Investment in nonmanufacturing declined less than 10
percent last year Typically this investment has been less
volatile than in manufacturing, partly because the group
encompasses a number of industries in Ww! l nvestment
changes have been offsetting and partly because it embraces
industries like communications, electric and g itilities
which are less sensitive to cyclical change thar
This year these industries as a group are sched oy an
investment rise of about 2 percent over 1958, | there is no
iniformity in the industrial pattern of chang
Railroads initiate expansion
The railroads are planning capital investment 750 mil-
lion in 1959, about t
quarterly firures, however, it appears that ft asonally
he same as in 1958 CCOl iz to the
adjusted annual rate of outlays was at a low of $0.6 billion
in the closing 3 months of 1958 and a sizable pickup has
been scheduled by the second quarter Of this veal to an
annual rate of $920 million The drop in outlays that is
implied following the second quarter of 1959 probably rep-
resents the short-run nature of the railroad investment plans
at the present time
The reversal in railroad investment that is evident in the
data for the first half of this year follows the improvement
in carloadings and railroad income that began around mid
1958. Seasonally adjusted carloadings, after falling sharply
for six successive quarters, rose somewhat in the third quar-
ter of 1958 and markedly in the last 3 months of the year
\ vradual decline of 2 years’ duration in construction expend-
itures, seasonally adjusted, came to a halt around the end
of 1958 Equipment expenditures, after falling about two
thirds from the third quarter of 1957, are expected to increase
starting early in 1959, and sharply in the second quartet!
in
Fixed investment by the railroads, though now improving
must be judged quite low by postwar standaa The 1958
and 1959 outlays are the lowest since 1946 in current dollars
and well under that year in real terms. Freight cars owned
by the roads declined last year after increasing slightly in
1957 and at the end of 1958 stood 3 percent lower than the
pe ak reached at the end of 1953.
Utility investment high
Klectric utility companies are scheduling a decline in
‘ xpenditures of about 4 percent from the record high of 1958.
This decrease is probably a delayed reaction to the 1957-58
March 1959 SURVEY OF
recession and the earlier decline in homebuilding, as a result
of which kilowatt hour sales showed relatively small year-
to-year increases of 5 and 2 percent in 1957 and 1958, re-
spectively. The quarterly seasonally adjusted figures in-
dicate that capital outlays declined from the first to the
second half of 1958; the 1959 anticipations show a further
decline in the first half foliowed by a slight recovery in the
sec ond | alf
According to trade sources the decrease in 1959 reflects a
cutback in outlays for generating facilities, which reached
a top in 1958; this is being offset in part by a rise in spending
for distribution facilities, which had declined from 1957 to
Capacity additions in 1958 totaled a record 12.5
million kilowatts and are currently scheduled to total almost
11 million in 1959.
Gas utilities have scheduled their highest annual expendi-
ture for 1959, more than 10 percent above 1958. The season-
ally adjusted quarterly data indicate that the rise which
began in early 1958 will reach a peak in the first half of this
vear but some decrease is suggested in the second half.
1958
Trade and communications hold even
(‘communications firms, after a record $3 billion outlay in
1957, spent $2.6 billion in 1958 and are planning a like amount
for 1959. The quarterly projections, after seasonal adjust-
ment, indicate a slightly rising movement during 1959
The firming in this industry brings to a halt a decline in
seasonally adjusted outlays of about six quarters’ duration
and of 20 percent from the peak reached in early
1957 The recent decline was the first in this industry since
1949 Investment by communications companies was Main-
1953 rates during the 1954 recession but declined
by approximately 40 percent from mid-1948 to the end of
1949. following the investment boom in the early postwar
’
aimost
tained at
period
ent by commercial companies held up compara-
1958 in contrast with the declines that occurred
er areas of investment: spending by trade and
ms was within a few percent of the 1957 total A
tailers were holding back on plans for new stores
centers in view of the uncertainty attached to
se of retail sales in 1958 as well as to homebuilding
Investment programs firmed, especially in the
f of the vear, as retail sales were bolstered by rising
income and housing activity rose steadily. Capi-
1959 are expected to remain close to 1958 rates
second
disposal {
tal out
Record spending by airlines
The $1.9 billion expenditure that has been scheduled for
1959 by the transportation industry (aside from railroads)
is a record amount and is attributable primarily to the air-
lines. The airlines expect to spend twice as much this year
as last, according to current schedules, deliveries of jet ar-
began late last vear, are expected to reach a
Water carriers are also anticipating higher
ires but pipelines are expecting some cutback
ecrait. whiel
peak 1! 1960
expendit
Realization of 1958 Programs
year businessmen spent about $14 billion less than
anticipated in the survey conducted in the first
Although the relative discrepancy of
5 percent was slightly above the average (median) deviation
of 3 percent for the postwar years through 1957, the annual
survey correctly projected the very sizable decline in capital
table 3 indicates, all major industry
Last
thev had
quarter of 1958
expendit ires As
CURRENT
BUSINESS 15
divisions cut actual spending below planned amounts,
except the nonrail transportation and commercial groups
In durable-goods manufacturing all industries, except
the miscellaneous category, cut outlays in 1958 below projec
tions. Deviations were greater than average in the ma-
chinery and transportation equipment groups and less than
average in primary metals and stone, clay, and glass. In
nondurable-goods manufacturing, only the textile and mis
cellaneous nondurable-goods groups spent more than sched
uled, although the negative food and
beverages and paper were comparatively small. About 70
percent of the negative deviation in nondurable manufac
turing was brought about by the sharp reductions from
planned outlays by the petroleum industry
By size of firm, small manufacturing companies as a group
exceeded expectations even after allowance for the usual
small firm understatement, while medium and_ large-size
firms spent less than planned, with the latter showing the
greater shortfall
The year 1958 was noteworthy in that the reduction in
discrepancies m
Manufacturers’ Sales Anticipations
Percent Increase— 1958 Actual
to 1959 Anticipated
0 10
Iron and Steel
Transportation Equipment
Electrical Machinery
Chemicals
Nonferrous Metals
Nonelectrical Machinery
Paper
Stone, Clay, and Gloss
Textiles
Petroleum
Food & Beverages
U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
spending from anticipations was greater than occurred in the
two previous downturn 1949 and 1954, when ex-
penditures fell only 1 percent below expectations The
major difference with respect to the earlier downturns was
that this time manufacturing companies reduced their out-
lays substantially below expectations; previously manufac-
turers’ actual outlays were about in line with anticipations
vears of
16
In 1954, it may be
much more thai
dec reauses from en
goods industri
tained actual pen
grammed.
SURVEY
ymobile nau
helped
the
1959 SALES ANTICIPATIONS
Businessme!
mcreust Ove!
a sales rise of
mcrease of 6 p
aa
il combit ce
‘
a rise of close
have projected ‘
If th
nondurabl
f
FYVGh ea tdd ane
the sea
mont
the yeu!
2 percent
sales rate
repre ent new 1
All industrie
1958 Steel
have projected
from their dep
petroleum, and
velitele thie ¢
uverave
La t yea
earl
the ¢
survey
small “]
of the small pr
ities the directi
of change wa
compared Ww
revenues Tost
cent advance
sales project
in the two. pre
although the
like that of 1!
The (* sale
the large neg
manulacturi
for x tile
experienced |
planned
Work-in-Progress
This year
breakdown of tl]
I-proyre il
part of the
work (plant
The POULIN
outlay 3 On pl
panies were I
cost when «
started thi
purposes, Lo
in 1958.
and the Initiation
Projects
OF CURRENT
iry spent
to offset
a irable
Mail
nil pro
Lohan
of
BUSINESS March 1950
As was pointed out last year, the anticipated expenditure
on hew starts 1s subject to considerable re either
direction, depending chiefly on the subsequent course of
Work-in-progress, hows Vel
construction
ViIslOr ih
business activity. is subject to
though
spe ec d up or stretched Out Into al other Veal
Of the $12.3 billion of capital outlays that
have 1959, about $4¥% billion, o1
estimated to be spent on work already in progre
1959 Manufacturers expect during 195
projects with an estimated value of close to $10
which, $8 billion would be completed this yea
In 1958 manufacturers completed $5
less revision, large projects
S( heduled Iti
billion of
arryover ol on January 1, 1958
additional $5 7 billion Was spent on the SLO Db iI )
during 1958. As noted pi
1958 lower that
vinning of that ve ar, a
WOrk-L progress
projects started
capital spending in was
the be
the projected value of t
done in 1958
current s§
expectations al
occurred mainly in
uch Wis LO be
irve
did in
that
time
substant
progress than they
| ( * more
W . of this
any
total cost of the new
1 the
hot planning
| Ma
}
Phe
compares total cost of WO
\\ Tt?
re : -
1958S of about $10 billion
This comparatively small increase iS
overall advance in plant and «
he fact that construction outla
expected to iwnerease OV
total
well be ad usted
not now
total new starts and thus capital
]
aiready indicated may
to improve through the
9.—Business Facilities: Work-in-Progress and the Initiation
of New Projects
Manufacturing
Durable-goods industries
Nondurable-goods industries
t
Public utilities
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
lable 6.—Expenditures on New Plant and Equipment by U.S. Business, 1956-59
Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
mis industries
goods industries
her than rail
by Louis J. Paradiso and Mabel A, Smith ¥%
Consumer Purchasing
ry
Dive RELATI
an important
evelical Hie
of consumpt
decline in bo
icone Hhihe
of intere
heretofors |
al pureha
the aid of
data
In mo
geared to
bu 11h cher
Was us U i
volvin lo
changed a
remained
part becar
rise ih Ube
timing of
social sea ull
With the
consume!
hours of wor
sSuving of mo
pects improves
where the upt
1959 model
The iainitel
of business ins
1958 was lar
and it wa
uptrend tha
mnventory ara
by the end of
Cye lical variations in outpul
The accompa
of demand d lt
In the 1957
decline necou
drop of $25 b
1957 to thre
clined $6
$2 billion
froups was
LOT!
PICA’
DIVISIO
and Income Patterns
Postwar Cyclical Shifts in Output
Recession Periods
e Investment
s National Produc
Personal Consumption
Private Investment
Government Purchases
EZ
-10
Gross National Produc
4 Personal Consumption
Private Investment
4 Government Purchases
Laitdiiatindial
Department of Commer
Recovery Periods
Q
March 1959
In some respects, the decline differed from the pattern of
the 1953-54 cycle, when Government buying dropped most
as defense expenditures were sharply curtailed. The decline
in business investment was moderate, while consumer pur-
chases showed very little change as taxes were cut and real
income there by sustained.
In the covery, from the second quarter of 1954 to the
second quarter of 1955, national output at an annual rate
2 billion (in 1957 prices). Consumer purchases
investment each rose rapidly and extensively.
purchasing continued to decline but at a much
increased
and pri
Grove!
slower rate
In that eyele, consumer buying was maintained in the
downtul and advanced quickly recovery Was
ul det As +f
irable goods was a feature of the recovery, and
brought a flood of auto buying unequalled before or since.
In the 1948—49 recession, when the Government programs
( 3 expanded by foreign aid, and a large consume!
backlog of durable goods demand still existed, the only
Sigil | During
hase, real consumer purchases and Government
increased moderately. In the recovery period,
tepped up their buying, and, with the turn-
ntory policy, business investment also ad-
ally
of these
once the
matter of fact, consumer borrowing to
pure his
\ re rf
re f
ifiea occurred in business inventories.
recessions turned out to be short and
arked by broad governmental actions—som«
nd some designed to have an anlic ye lical effect
strength of consumer purchases, under thes
ustaied personal income and the absence of
had p olonged unemployment, had a stabilizing
As will be developed, however, the
ymposition of purchases among the various
economy
goods and services had noticeable and, in some
mpacts on particular industries
implied that the stabilizing influence of
lerived its primary impetus from the consume!
nae ated above, developments ine other private
the Government played important roles in
of his income. Nonetheless, the con-
is overall propensity to consunn
to be
income.
CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
sumer pure hases are viewed in relation to total
d output over the long-term, interesting patterns
t. The accompanying chart brings out several
yn the behavior of consumer spending in relation
nd output, all expressed in constant dollars.
f purchases to real disposable personal income
iated within a relatively narrow range around a
average in the 20 years prior to 1929, and again
postwar period 1947-58. In the years of the 1930
spending was naturally high from
and in the war years such spending was
by price controls and the limited availability of
ods In other years, the most pronounced
ons occurred in the 1921 recession and in the early
s of abnormality in production and distribution
of purchases to real gross national product
teresting to note that in the 20-vear period before
1929 onsumers took, on the average, 69 percent of the
| output, with rather small fluctuations about this
averag In World War I when the Government
the consumer ratio dropped to 63 percent. During
phase of the depression years, the ratio in-
cdepresslol consumers’
omes,
nationa
needs
increased
the declining
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 19
creased to a top of 80 percent, and in 1944 a low of less than
50 percent was reached
With the ending of the war, the consumers’ share of the
national output increased rapidly and eventually stabilized
around an average of 65 percent. The lower ratio for the
postwar than the pre-1929 period reflects the relatively large
national output absorbed by the Government in
The
substantial amount of consumption
More than one-fifth of total output in 1958 was
bought by Government, compared with an average of on
tenth in the twenties
share of
recent years Government’s purchases include, of
course, a coods and
services
Relation of consumption—investment
Over the short-run, the
and the phy sical volume ol plant ana equipment purchased
of differing evchieal sensi
where periods of
compared there can be
correlation between consumption
by business is not close because
Over the
Cconomnie
tivities longer run, howeve1
high-level
discerned some constaneyv in the
fluctuates
The chart on page 20 shows the ratio of consumer expendi
tures to business plant and equipment purchases (GNP basis
It isclear that both in the period prior to
activity are
level about which the ratio
in constant dollars
thie creat depression and in the current postwar pe riod this
ratio has fluctuated around an average of 5 that is, for
every dollar of plant and equipment acquired by business,
consumers bought, on the average, about $5 of real goods
and services There appears to have
ipward or downward drift in this ratio over the long-term
ibstantial
been he
period Over the short run the ratio does fluctuate sharply
Shifts in consumption
The consumer “Mix of goods and services has varied
considerably over time, with significant shifts taking place
among groups O© pure hases
In LY5S personal consumpttol expe nditures totaled $291
Personal Consumption in Constant Dollars —
Ratios to Income and GNP
Ratio
1.25 [
Disposable Personal Income
\
"i
Gross National Product
L Note: Based 1957 Dollars
iy . a FUURUUEUTEUUEUSUCHUCETTTECUEECUTTETETEUTTODETETE
1910 #15 20 25 30 «(35 40 45 50 55
U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Hw) SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
billion with personal in¢ e al the fourth
quarter the sea na ad lal lit Ss rate ment of real disposable income per capita Bot!
was at $296 bill f and expenditures per capita are still 2 ps
further rise in the fi juarter of t eal e advan 1957 high
from the recessi ow ol the tq The
1958 followed a mor inl personal income ¢
from the peak 19 irri t!
quarter of last year. <A similar pattern occurred
chart on page 21 shows the 1958 d
| nl hy majo! componel LS
an four-fifths of income was spent for good
Kxpe naditure ~ {ol v’oo0ds took half ol the nco
Personal Consumption in Constant Dollars— ondurables accounting for 10 cents of
~ Services tooK almost ol!
Ratio to Plant and Equipment Investment mainder was divided between payments fo
Che variations in tl
noid ope
1940
Curret
capita a
I)
!
iIsposa
capita «
capita exXpe |
third quarte!
the recovers
amounting
Fable 1.—Personal Consumption | xpenditures
| i Percentage of Disposable Personal Income, for Selected Years
Total goods and services
Durable goods
Aut
Fur
Nondurable goods
Other
* Preliminary
1. Includes dat
Source: | De
March 1959
on current dollars, the fluctuations in the ratio of these
expenditures to the total in the past 8 years have been some-
what larger than in constant dollars, and the ratio currently
is above that of 1929.
The clothing and shoes portion of total purchases has
clearly been declining in the postwar period—from 10 percent
in 1947 to 8% percent in 1958. This compares with a ratio
of 13% percent in 1929. On a current dollar basis, the
proportion of clothing and shoes expenditures shows a some-
what more pronounced drop in the postwar years than is
the case in constant dollars. The nature of this relationship
is brought out in a different manner in a later discussion. In
the case of gasoline and oil purchases, the proportion of the
shown a steady rise in the postwar years—from 2%
percent 1947 to nearly 4 percent currently.
In the durable croods categories, the proportion of auto-
d parts purchases has shown marked fluctuations
twar period, with the ratio to purchases of all goods
es ranging from less than 4 percent in 1947 to more
cent im 1955 In the 1957—58 recession, the ratio
rom a high of 6.2 percent to a low of 4.5 percent.
for housing and household operation services
postwar rise—from 15 percent in 1947 to 18%
1958. In contrast, purchases of transportation
constant dollars) dropped from 4 percent in 1947
reverting back to the percentage
total has
mobiles
1 4 perce nt
Q?Q
the rapid expansion in the stock of many types
durables, expenditures for the care and repau ol
have shown a considerable expansion in recent
957, the repair bill for automobiles, radios and
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 21
television receivers, household appliances, and other house-
furnishings amounted to $5 billion and on the basis of
preliminary data this total was exceeded in 1958. In the
past 10 years, these expenditures have risen steadily, with
the current rate more than double that of 1947—a rise in
excess of the increase in consumer income. Expenditures
on radio and television repair showed the most marked
expansion, increasing 3% times over the 10-year period
It should be emphasized that within major groups the
movements of the ratios for subgroups show, in many cases,
a considerably mixed picture. To illustrate this point, in
the case of transportation, the ratios for local transit and
intercity railway and bus transportation have been steadily
declining in the postwar period. On the other hand, travel
by airlines and by automobile has been steadily rising
In summary, while total consumer expenditures have borne
a rather steady relation to income, aside from the depression
and wartime periods, within this aggregate many categories
shift in importance as consumers change their preferences
or view their prospects differently. There is, of course,
variation in the extent of stability associated with the degree
of urgency of need. Also, for certain groups of items
definite growth tendencies are dominant while others have
become of lesser importanc e in the consumer budget,
CONSUMPTION-INCOME RELATIONS
The consumption-income relations will be viewed in this
section through the use of correlation analysis The rela
involve essentially an up-dating of
tionships presented
Use of the 1958 Personal Income Dollar
Use of
Income Dollar
Nondurables
40%
Durables
10%
Total Personal
Consumption
5 ened
Expenditures
82%
Services
32%
4
Based on Total Personal Income
in 1958 - $354 Billion
mmerce, Office of Business Economics
Purchases of
Goods and Services
Clothing
& Shoes
8% Food & Beverages
and Tobacco
29%
Housing
13%
on ‘ x
a Operon" scree
nol %
House” 6% ‘ atten
ve
« oe,
Sf Sh
ee o All Other
+ » rt es vee
x © * Oo 26%
o ~ a7
vy Pr
& > &
2° o
° c
Transportation a
3%
Based on Total Consumption Expenditures
in 1958 - $291 Billion
OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Consumer Purchases Related to Income
in Constant Dollars, 1920-58
Durable Goods
Goods and Services
ton 1957 Dolien (ratio scole
Nondurable Goods Services
Dolian (ratio scole
Goods —Billion 1957
Nondurable
similar material Although the analyses will be considet
ularly to Incorpo
made in thy
gnalyses are p | | lice of B ( :
nomics’ new dat heed relationships, which are of particular inter
Ty
dollars, it should be noted that in certai
mn :
may be a significant difference from. thi
ncomMe-sensitivibs coefficients that
aemal d to a | percent change in disposabl
—are shown in table 3 for the prewar perio
for the postwar period, in constant dollars for
1 current dollars for more detailed sub
Lid
March 1959
Some summary facts may first be noted:
1. In real terms, total consumer purchases over the long-
run period of the twenties and postwar vears have shown a
close relat ionship to consumer income: a change of 10 percent
in real income was associated on the average with a change
of approximately 10 percent in real purchases. In periods
of sharp cyclical changes in business, a variation of 10 per-
cent in real income was associated on the average with a
ge of 8 percent in real purchases.
response of the major groups—durables, nondu-
to income change over the long-run
what occurred in the 1930
depression. The secular tendency has been for real purchases
ol lurable coods to show a moderate upward response rela-
( hat
2. Th
rables. Al
period of course differs from
d services
tive to
response has been approximately equal al to 1 association
business evele, however, durable-
ncome, while for nondurable goods and services the
During wings in the
goods purchases in real terms have responded more intensely,
rable goods rather moderately, and services have been
sensitive to income changes
subgroups of expenditures, there is a wide diversity
of income response in all periods. In addition, purchases of
lurable particularly automobiles, have shown wide
fluctuations, often not directly related to the income flow,
in the postwar vears
oods
Consumption-income patterns
A ree)
{ol some
imination of past relationships provides the basis
generalizations regarding the overall consumption-
neome pattern The uppel left panel of the accompanying
chart shows this pattern for the years 1920-58 with total
consumption and income both in real terms. So far as the
entire period since World Wat | is concerned, expenditures in
lat Conseque ntly, it
income show noticeable shifts
lation or simple expressions such as ratios or linear
i ot account for all of the « hanges,
consumption income change is con-
y different over long periods than during swings in
The line on the chart represents a recres-
high-level activity
It mav be seen that the points for
about this line
wing about 1 percent. This relationship indicates
response to
ess cycle.
ed to the
postwar vears.*
vears of the twenties
]
ears cluster closely the average
i" thar response ol consumption to income change
lable 2.—Distribution of Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
in years of rising, high level economic activity is such that
a given percent change in real income is associated with a
closely similar percentage change in consumption
Two points may be made concerning this relation First
in periods of brief and relatively small cyclical fluctuations,
such as those of 1923-24, 1926-27. 1948-49, and 1953-54. the
consumption-income pattern was approximately in line with
the secular relationship shown on the chart
Second, in the sharp evclical swings of 1929-37 and 1937
38, with large-scale unemployment, the relationship shifted
Both in the pronounced downswing and in the subsequent
recovery, consumer demand exhibited a marked lag relative
to the income advance
All three major groups of expenditures show significant
differences between the secular and evelical relationships ol
consumption to income This may be seen from the other
panels of the chart
As would be expected the cyclical
change is sharply pronounced In the durable voods group
much less so in the nondurables, and even less so in the
The respe tively 2.1
0.7, and 0.5."
In the case of durable coods the eve lical response has been
small busines fluctuations
response to income
services income coefficients are
sharp even in periods of relatively
Such behavior results from the longer life of these goods and
the flexibility of replacement, and from the use of credit
as an important element of financing. Consumers are more
willing to increase installment debt
and are more reluctant to incur additional indebtedness when
when income is rising
income declines and prospects appeal less favorable Len
likewise debt
creation in good times. Purchases of nondurable goods and
much less postponable smaller
reaction to evclical changes in income
ders are more agreeable to the process of
services have shown a
Real durable-goods purchase s show wide swings around the
long term relation, which at times ar
independent of income changes For example, the Korean
vroods buving in YOO
autonomous and quite
war touched off a wave of durabl
which brought purchases to a point considerably above the
1951 and 1952
tion restricted, such
Again in 1955, the
long-term relationship In the next 2 vears
despite rising incomes but with prod
purchases were cut. back severely
unusually
resulted in a bulge in durable
1957, purchases fell back to the
automobile purchasing
1956 and
favorable conditions for
voods buving In
long-term line Finally
»y Major Groups of Goods and Services Based on Constant (1957) Dollars
Total goods and services 100, 0 100, 0
Dural oods
Nondurable goods
100, 0 100, 0 100, 0 on. { 1K ow 100, 0 100, 0
13,3 12, ¢ 14,0 5 15.4 ; 14,0 12.9
24
adverse market con-
g-term
they were reduced sharply under
ditions of 1958 toa po nt conside ADLY hye low hn ion
relation.
durable
al ad services
In contrast to the autonomous
goods spending pure
in constant dollar to income
changes over the period imply means that
consumers spend a high proportio their incomes at all
times, but are able to supplement them by bor ing to a
;
nader certau cond business
greater extent
than at other time
In the case of
tions from the li
which were tempo
shortages In al
close proportiol
the long-term
meome in consta
sidering the close
of nondurable go
variations in
offs f Lo the wide
Analysis of special groups
Data for the 1920
categories of
services. Ther
of the more «ce
Income change
“elivity is contin
alone Kon a
income change
prewar years
chauracteristh
hisny special inf
It should alse
involved 1th ahi
nee the usual
neome relati
bare part Irom
by il pel
LicCOlle
materially
the time
correlation be
SURVEY OF CURRENT’
BUSINESS March 1959
limitations of the sensitivity coefficients based on income
alone, it is, nevertheless, of interest to examine the response
of consumption of some of the more important categories
of voods and services to income changes.
Analyses involving the use of one factor
considered as complete since other
consumer it
come—are not to be
Food Expenditures Related to Incorne
in Constant Dollars
80
70
60
50
futomobiles highly volatile
rr 5 uli pul
lwtioOns I!
ad postwal
ted with ditlere
+) period ot ce pre
ol purchases ol automobiles and pa
in constant dollars was nearly 3
Is explained by the ré ady post po
' and the reluctance of consume!
of pronounced business declines,
period of upswing automobile purchas¢
arply not
with ie ted
esult of rising Income
illinet ess of co
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
var period, aside from the early years when cars
vely short supply, autos and parts purchases
nly a moderate rise in relation to income. How-
ir-to-year purchases in relation to income have
swings due to temporary and unusual factors
n 1950 purchases of autos and parts (in constant
d 28 percent from 1949 whereas the real in-
| percent This s} arper rise 1m purchases
ts reflected, of course, the heavy buying
break of Korean hostilities In 1955, due
relating to more favorable credit terms and
of cars and other mnovations,
]
itomobiles and parts again increased sub
|
le purchases of 20 percent occurred along
to ICO! Finally m the L957 5S perro
than | percent
and household equipment
ousehold equip
close degree ol
both the wal
and postwar periods than has been t e case with automob
and parts. In the postwar period the mcome-sensitis
f the furniture and household equi rent rroup was |
1 in the prewar vears of ¢ al variability Sp
luctors affect yr LThes¢ pure hnases | past decade o
included the meking up of the : vartime deficr
houses, and hence furnishings, and the large incre:
birth rate and in family formatior
co cluded that the relation Lo
persist im the future
Food purchases
Food pure
High volumes
ior 100
real food « Xp
tures
to rise ovel
However, in ¢
affected materially by the ay
T 1 positive elatio
Wc? aver
lable 3.—Sensitivity | of Personal Consumption Expenditures to Changes in Disposable Personal Income
ry
Total personal ce
Automobiles and parts
Furniture and household equipment
Other durable goods
Clothing and shoes
Food and alcoholic beverages
C,asoline and oil!
Tobacco products
Other nondurable
nsumption expenditures
nsumption expenditures
goods
Household operation
ble r
WwW
Telept
1)
Housing
Personal services
}
Barber
Recreation
"I :
Transportation
\ piler
Personal business
Private education and research
Religious and welfare activities
H -ENT BUSINESS
for every 10 pert This loss has ave raged 1.3 percent per
clot! mig chart shows the
plained by the pal el of the
for higher quali more hig essed { ( c clothing expenditures to income change
the frozen food | 1estion of what is a ( stant dollars, while the lower panel shows
here as el ewherse , ‘ ’ ‘ " to he tion in such pur hases over the vears obtal
constantly bor \ ot ¢ il allowance for the ¢ ffect of real Income on
consumption or 1 ove 1.e., dividing the act ial purchases by
income line of relationship The final
about the trend line in the lower panel ar
T:; — Real Perso I Cons tion I enditures and Disposable
seaeade cetee . ory mem oie “a a ' for the entire period of years the auverns
Personal Income 1920—58
the total relationship heing 2 percent
deviation of less thar 5 percent occurri
Gasoline and oil up
asoline and oil illustrate
of that for clothing and shoe
i! ehart portravs th
accompal |
I ved As 1s shown 1n the upper panel
what lowe! response ol these purchases
than is the case fol clothing Here the
that other factors ay req ial, for every
real incomes there associated a H-perce
purchases of gasoline an il a rather mod
However, other fa rs tht » resulted
n these purchast after taking into §
e. As shown in the lower panel
line purchase s has averaged 3 per
e for income cha eC It is this
accounted for cont nued imereases
i! ssionary periods ol
at times wit
ior examptl
percent al
Housing and household operation
\ indicated earlier consumer purchase
nstant prices have comprised an approx
are of total real consumption over the long
rice dite re ntials between services and al
relation 1s less close in current dollars
used considerabl
tth
groups, consumers have
types ot services p irchased so
apparent.
Pr rhnaps the most striking expansio
Actually, co ant-dollar expenditures for food of services purchased occurred in
as a percent of e tended tf il f 9 ITTOW ana household operation as shown I!
range 22 to 24 ee] ) " | og In the 1929-40 depression period these
only during { r iT ‘ f r ‘ r’. only il moderaté response to mcome chal cr¢
In ‘the last 4 ( ) LQ-percent change 1n real income Was asso¢
been around 22 1 age with a 5-perce it change In real pure hase
pansion im pop ilation, the steady ere
Relative dec line , y i s and hous holds the mereas
mn wnership and other factors
Clothing pu new market in the postwa
sistent deel
the experienc
indicates tha
more clothu
real mconn oO
actual pureha
mcome relatio
have produced
purchases relat
&. Appr
March 1959 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Differential Trends of Consumer Expenditures Relative to Income
CLOTHING and SHOES Expenditures GASOLINE and OIL Expenditures
in Constant Dollars in Constant Dollars
Expenditures moderately sensitive to Expenditures not quite so sensitive
income change .. . to income change
aad | ns
}
10
30
e and Oi! Expenditures—Billior
7aS0lir
Disposable Personal Income—Billion |
and after allowance for income effects
the trend has been declining
140 Disposable Personal
and the net trend has been up
180 [
BO Lists iiss isi sists triisiiis AAs Te 160 +
1930 35 40 45 50 55 60 [
140 |
120 }
s have increased on an average of 14 percent
cent rise in real income.
household operation group, nearly all major
ave shown strong growth. For example, in the
he average annual rate of increase of expendi
Cs electricity, ras, and telephone has been
about 10 percent. Purchases of these utilities
ecelerated by the large postwar growth in home
ppliances, in the use of gas for heating, and the
e number of telephones. Purchases of domestic
followed a contrary course, showing a general
the postwar period due in part to the easing
of household work through the use of home
din part to the limited availability of hous« hold |
: : 40 Lessig i
¢ and household operation expenditures com- 193035 a a nn -
t half of the total purchases of serv ices, they con-
tantly to the strong long-term growth of total
Net Regression CD—Perce
m *
U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of
Ig SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
service the postwal period in line wit
Consumer Expenditures for Services in Constant iets oe ey Ee, coduded te
services, the resulting series shows a notab
Dollars Related to Income, 1929-58 res nt agericonap tn s
o income in bDOTn ne prewar an postwal
change of 10 percent in real incom
1 on the average by a cha
HOUSING and HOUSEHOLD OPERATION relation to income vas accompanied on th
I ase I vices other lan housing
has shown a marked shift from prewar to postwar... oe ee ther than housing
pe riods il
70 [ _ I 1 dhnanagear within this “all othe
Ow r, have reflected contrasting tre!
I ponses to income changes For example
60 | ] of recreation services have fluctuated with
the postwar years he fact tl
line with Income in the postw:
wdmissions to
( line lI
whereas ALL OTHER SERVICES have shown
a rather constant relation to income
70 [—
60 |
Equations for Consumption-Income Relationships
50 |
Dollars (ratio
1957
~Billior
vices
6 S. Department of
Monthly BUSINESS STATISTIC
A hw
1957 edition of BusiINgEss STAT! iennial Statistical Supplement
monthly (or quarterly) data for the ! 53 through 1956 and
far as also provides a description of each serie
tly revised since publication of 1957 Br
revisions for 1956 issued toc
yurces of month
I isterish *) and a
f
the aforementionet
issue. Except as otherwis« it I terms ‘‘unadjusted
monthly SURVEY
and ‘adj 1” ref vdijustment for
vernment agencies al N ( I ‘ an iay be reprinted yurces are provided
mpilers, and
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive otes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
ludes and other fo
to $4.6 billion
1958 SURVEY J Include
ember 1958 SURVEY
ynal product above
CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated. statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTI¢
GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS—Continued
NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
EXPENDITURI
FARM INCOME AND MARKETINGS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
/
ites for April-June
RVEY
rior to 1956 are
18 of the July 1958
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
GENERAL BUSINESS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ~“— Continued
tir
NSUMER DURABLES OUTPUT
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES
RRENT BUSINESS
U nicss otherwise state:
descriptive notes are show
BUSINESS STATISTI«
GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATOR S—Continued
MANUFACTURER al
A
ND OR! i
less other wis tated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptiv xtes are shown in the 1957 editien of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATOR S—Continued
MANUFACTURERS’ SALES, INVENTORIES
AND ORDERS ~ Continued
BUSINESS INCORPORATIONS
INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL FAILURES
PRI
COMMODITY PRICES
CES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
NT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, stat
descriptive notes are showr
BUSINESS STATISTIC
COMMODITY PRICES—Continued
WHOLESALE PRICI
De
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
statistics through 1956 and
1957 edition of
Uniess otherwise stated
descriptive notes are shown in the
BUSINESS STATISTICS
PURCHASING POWER OF THE DOLLAR
CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
CONTRACT AWARDS
NEW DWELLING UNITS
RRENT BUSINESS
( niess otherwise stat
descriptive notes are ‘
BUSINESS STATISTIK
CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE—Continued
CONSTRUCTIE
CONSTRUE
DOVIESTIC TRADE
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Uniess othe stated. statistics through 1956 end
descriptiv s are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
ADVERTISING— Continued
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
RETAIL TRADI
S-10 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Uniess otherwise state:
descriptive notes are shown in the < tier
BUSINESS STAT! lw |
DOMESTIC TRADE—Continued
RETAIL TRADE ¢
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics througk 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
|
April | May June Ju
Janu | Febru
ary ary
DOMESTIC TRADE—Continued
RETAIL TRADE— Continued
WHOLESALE TRADE!
EMPLOYMENT AND POPUI
POPULATION
EMPLOYMENT
CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
deacriptive notes are shown in the ! f
BUSINESS STATISTI¢
editior
EMIPLOYMIENT AND POPU LATION—Continued
EMPLOYMEN
LABOR CONDITIONS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS rATISTIcs
EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION—Continued
LABOR CONDITIONS ~ Continued
Cor
S-14 | * CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise state«
descriptive notes are
BUSINESS STATIS
EMIPLOYMIENT AND POPULATION—Continued
LABOR CONDITIO
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Uniess otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
EVIPLOYMIENT AND POPU LATION—Continued
WAGES —- Continued
S-16 iVE CURRENT BUSINESS
Uniess otherwise stat
descriptive notes are show
BUSINESS STATISTIC
FINANCE
CONSUMER CREDIT
(Short- and Intermediat
March 1959 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and | = ’
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of : | Sete. | | le os
BUSINESS STATISTICS — . March April May June ) | October
| |
FINANG _ ‘ontinued
CONSUMER CREDIT? Continued
(Short- and Intermediate-term)
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE
RRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated tatint through |! und
descriptive notes are shown in the I edition of
BUSINESS STATISTIC
MONETARY rATISTICS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
PROFITS AND DIVIDENDS (QUARTERLY
SECURITIES ISSUED
SECURITY MARKETS
Brokers’ Balances (N. Y. S. E. Members
Carrying Margin Accounts
Bonds
S-20
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
March 1959
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956
descriptive notes are shown in the 195
BUSINESS STATISTICS
and
edition of
SECURITY MARKETS
Bonds —Cor
Continued
inued
March 1959 SURVEY OF CURRENT
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of . |
BUSINESS STATISTICS ao : ' March Ma J
INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS O}
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY
FORFIGN TRADI
Indexes
BUSINESS
|
July | A
|
* THE UNITED
RVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless other wine uted, statistics through 195
descriptive note» are shown in the 1957 edition
BUSINESS STATISTICS
INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES—Continued
FOREIGN TRADE. (
Value Cor
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957
BUSINESS STATISTICS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
edition of
Airlines
TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS
rRANSPORTATION
Express Operations
cal Transit Lines
Motor Carriers (Intercity
Class I Railways
Waterway Traffic
S-24 . RRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated
descriptive notes are how
BUSINESS STATISTICS }
PRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION S—Continued
rRANSPORTATIO
AND ALLIED PRODUCTS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of , }
BUSINESS STATISTICS = . Mar Ay
FERTILIZERS
MISCELLANEOUS
FATS, OILS, OILSEEDS, AND BYPRODUCTS
S-26
Unless other wise stated
descriptive notes are shown
BUSINESS STATISTI¢
FATS, OU
horter
Product
tock
PAINTS, VARNISH, AND LACQUER
t
SYNTHETIC PLASTICS AND RESIN
MATERIAI
ELECTRIC POWER
Rn
treet
Other
Interde
Revenue fr
Electric I
Manufacture
Re one
Industr
* Rey
material
tRevisi
stocks (Mar
January-August
p. 20 of the Mar
§ Data are |
published later
o'Totals includ
‘URRENT BUSINESS
CHEMI
ALS AND ALLIED PRODUCTS—Continued
ELECTRIC POWER AND GAS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
Janu
ary
GAS— Continued
ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
it w eries
DAIRY PRODUCTS
tion of wine
for the periods
condensed milk an
S-28 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Uniess otherwise stated, statistics throug!
descriptive notes are shown in the 195
BUSINESS STATISTICS
FOODSTUFFS AND TOBACCO—Continued
FRUITS AND VEGETABLES
GRAIN AND GRAIN PRODUCTS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of . | ’ | }
BUSINESS STATISTICS wr
|
| August |
FOODSTUFFS AND TOBACCO—Continued
GRAIN AND GRAIN PRODUCTS— Continued
ks (100 Ib
rt tons
us. of bu
f sacks (100 It
LIVESTOCK
POULTRY AND EGGS
MISCELLANEOUS FOOD PRODUCTS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
S-30
is
statistic through 1956 and
edition of
: Ma June | Ju
Unless otherwise stated
deacriptive notes are shown in the 195
BUSINESS STATISTICS
FOODSTUFFS AND TOBACCO—Continued
MISCELLANEOUS FOOD PRODUCTS—Cor
Refined
Fr
Price
Raw, v
Refir
rOBACCO
Leal
Productior
Stock leale
total
Domest
( igar le if
Alr-cured
laneou
Foreign gro
Cigar leaf
Cigarette tot
Exports, inclu
Import ‘
Manufactured
Productior
Chewing,
Smoking
Snuff
Consum]
Cc ,
Manufactured t
Exports, cigarett
Price, cigarette
saler and jobber
LEATHER DUCTS
HIDES AND SKINS
Exports:*
sue
Calf and
Cattle
Import
LEATHER
* Revised
*New series )
ft ,
§Price for f the Census
March 1959 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
a | o5
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and | ae
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of | ;,_,,, | Febru-
BUSINESS STATISTICS = ~
2 , | mist | Septem- | P ).
ary oe March | A pril | May | June | July August os Octoder |
LEATHER AND PRODUCTS—Continued
LEATHER MANUFACTURES | | | | | |
thous. of pairs 48, 910 51, 955
shoes, except athletic,
thous. of pairs 9,1: 44, 678
do 9, 335 &, 310 ; : 7, 647
do 2 2, 073 : 753 1, 805
do 26, 6: 24, 594 25, 77 7 20, 022
do 7, 52 6, 479 ‘ 4, O45
do 3, 5! 3, 222
do : 3, 543 4, 57 5,614
do K 35 : g 433
do 337
do
factory
is, dress, cattle hide upper, |
947-49= 100 y 124.4 124.4
ie upper, Goodyear welt
1947-49= 100 3 133.9 133.9 133. 9 133.9
n quality. ..._.do 9. § 119. 5 119. 5 118.7 118.7 118.7
LUMBER—ALL TYPES}
Manufacturers Association
mil. bd. ft
do
do
do
do
do r1,996 | °1,805] * 2, BS f r 2, 441
do 3, 5 < | < Y 3, 463
do____| 53 | 6, 3, 087 | 7 r 5,838 | * 5,743
ucts M bd. ft ; ? 7,785 | 62
roducts_. we do 7, 507 247, | 258, 85 , 069 | 313,
SOFTWOODS!
549
492
633 |
564
1, 053 1,
19, 204 20, 636 2 | 2 7 766 18, 424
8, 167 10, 270 : } 8 0
11, 037 10, 369 : 352 | 9, 864
76. 201 | 75. 75. f 76.073 | 7! | 75.956 | 180. 577
117.674 | 114
r 486 |
151
do | rol ’r 408
do r 55 r 483
neentration yards, end of
mil. bd. ft 2 2, O18
M bd. ft 5, 87 6, 447
lo
do
t. L
per M bd. ft 75. 833 74. 643
wf &" |
per M bd. ft ‘ 142. 352
bd. ft 55 304
do 334
do r ’ Al
do r 550 r 554
do ¢
3 common
per M bd. ft
HARDWOOD FLOORING AND PLYWOOD
2,750 |
13, 100 |
2, 625
end of month 2 { 11, 125
70, 590 72 O68
do } 7 3, 7% 45, 822 5, < 56, 108
do 9, 5 66, 416 71, 535 73, 987
do q 67, 033
of month do : 103, 716 | 101, 086
packaging), qtrly. total:
sq. ft., surface measure 175, 231
Not entirely comparable with earlier data
n for January 1955-July 1957 will be shown later
roduction, shipments, stocks, and orders for 1955-1957 will be shown later; those for plywood shipments (3d quarter 1953-4th
I ply 1
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
METALS AND MANUFACTI
Foreign trade
Iron and steel 1
Exports, total
crap}
Imports
Scrap
Productior
Export
Stocks, t
At mine
At furt
Atl
Manganese (n
f
Pig Iron and Iron Manufactures
Pig tron
Production
Consumpt
Stock
Price
Compo
Basic
Foundry
Castings, g
Orders, ur
Shipment
For sal
Casting
Order u
hipment
For sale
Steel, Crude and Semimanufactures
l ingots and ste«
Productior
Percent
Steel, Manufactured Products
Barrels at
Order
Shipmer
Stock
me
March 1959 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
. » 95
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and 1958
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of | 5... | Febru | | | | Septem- |
BUSINESS STATISTICS oi ie March | A pril May June July | August | ——
METALS AND MANI FACTURES—Continued
IRON AND STEEL— Continued
Steel, Manufactured Products— Continued
4
do
Back] 1 of nthf do
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
short tons 139,910 | 121,980 | 134,019 327 | 718, 541 25, 416
d 28, 565 23, 095 24, 57% 4 " 0 697 | BW, 803 22, SU2
|
18, $2¢ 17, 343 24, 949 an 4 5 27, 306
2, 009 1, 603 «, Olt l :
rt tons 441 189, 999
lol. per Ib 2 2810 2810
251.4
190. 1
100.8
my) &
82, 048
109, 100
78, 455
30, 645
38
7, 484
2469
422
187
S-34
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
HEATING APPARATUS, EXCEPT ELECTRIC
Radiators and cor
Shipments
Stocks, end ¢
Oil burners
Shipments
Stocks, end of me
and range
Shipments, tota
Coal and wood
Gas (incl, t
K erosene
domes
and wor
Stoves
Coal
Cias@
Kerosene, gasol
Warm-alr furr
hipments, t«
ace
tal@
Gas
Ol
Solid fuel
Water heaters, gas, st
MACHINERY
f
AND APPARATUS
Blowers, fans
Blowers an
Unit-heater ¢ t
Foundry equipment (1
Furnaces, industrial
Electric processing
Fuel-fired (except f
Industrial trucks (electr
Hand (motorized
Rider-type
Industrial truck
shipments
Machine tools (1
New orders (net), tota
Domesti
Shipments
Domest
Estimated backl
total
Other machinery and «
Construction mact
Tractors,
Tractors, wt
Tractor shovel }
and track lay
track
Farm machine
excluding tractor
Tractors, wheel
highway ty
Pumps (steam,
orders
EQUIPMENT
ELECTRICAI
Batteries (automot
Household electr
Range incl
Refrigeratior
Vacuum cleaner
Washers,
Kadio
Television
ale
ets, prod
et
Insulating materia
Insulating mater
Vulcanized fiber pr
Steel conduit
Motors and genera
New orders, inds
Polyphase t
New order
Billing
Direct current 1
New order
Billings
t
awl
1957
R
qu
@ Revision
evi
irter
4th
heaters were le
tRevised oft
note in Septer
*New serie
SUSINESS
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Mar n | A pril May
|
October
I
m-
June
METALS AND MANUFACTI RES—Continued
1
103, 852
43, 818
5, 599
224 691
100,103
40, 104
5, 147
254, 743
30, 113
20, 308
t
3, etc
account for
Data for March, J
from 16 to 24 cor
March 1959 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
RS aioe ween —_ weet 1959
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and —
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of | j.ny. Febru- | ; —
BUSINESS STATISTICS ee ary March April lay June July August
Novem Febru
j
Septem-| October
. ry
ber
~ PETROLEUM. COAL, AND PRODUCTS
i rn — eee
COAL
thous. of short tons 2, 197 , 783 1, 1 1, 571
orage yards, end of mo..do 275 283
do 22! y 137 117 |
29. 14 | 28. 21
dol. per short ton
15. 512 13. 279
car at mine do
Bituminou
Product thous. of short tons .e 31, 4 31, 930 29, 940
Industrial nsulmy n and retail deliveries, totalf
thous. of short tons
Indus nsum ptic otal §f do
Electric v util do 3, 352 13,165 | 11,200
Oven-coke do 6, 7! 5, 446
ri)
SRS
629
32, 319 27, 130
28,692 | 24, 932
Beet
industries §
i ass I
Bunker fuel (foreign and lake vessel) § do
Retail deliver o other consumers § do
retail dealers’, end of month,
thous. of short tons 70, 922
do 2 70. 409 7
do 707 45, 055 5 7 ; 3 47, 200
do 3, 217 11, 906 l 5 , 10, 040
540)
1,003
Stocks,
tot
do . 5 ‘RY
do 1, 364 1, 128
do 12, 072 2 11, 141 7 A I ; 10, 840
do 655 6 4i4
do 738 513 | f 927
do 4, 104 2, 93: 3. 629
dol. per short ton 16. 62 16. 66
5. 561
use, f. o. b. car at mine..do 5. 539 |
izes, f. o. b. car at mine do 7. 709 7 7. 709
COKE
Beehivef thous. of short tons_.)
Over byprodu do |
Petroleum coke do
Stocks, end ofr
Oven-coke plants, total . do
do
do
Petroleun do
Exports do
oven foundry cok merchant plants), f. 0. b
4 dol. per short ton.
A ‘
A
AND PRODUCTS
number 2, 572 ’ 1, 704 2 2, 160
thous. of bbl ( i 194, 472 193, 215
percent of capacity 5 S 82
thous. of bbl 228, 050 | 215 229, 754
do... 285, 278, 534 263, 105
do { a 7 56 2, «
do }, 877 | 179, 464 9, sl, 37% , 037 fi 160, 914
do 21, 514 y y f 20, 881
..do S38 x K 3 170
do 34, 2 4 5 32, 406 i, ‘ 5 32, 056 K 33, (4
dol. per bbl 7 3. 07 “ 7 7 3. 07 3. 07
thous. of bbl
do
do 75 7 7 7 Ro. 1
do ‘ 4 5, OWE 7,97 61, 589
do . 57 1. 43¢
do 7 2. Mt
2 fuel) ..dol. per gal 093
dol. per bbl
thous. of bbl
do 17, 459
do 23, 073
do 45
New York Harbor
dol. per gal 110 104 OWS Ovs 101 104 104
Revision for December 1957, 7,834,000 barrels
later for indicated items as follows: Bituminous-coal consumption (January- August 1957
| wells completed, crude production, and refined petroleum products January-September 1957
nsumption, retail deliveries, total industrial and retail stocks, and for the indicated components have been revised to! venchmarks; bunker fuel figure
visions for consumption and retail deliveries are available on annual basis fr 1933 forward and on monthly basis beginn January 1954; revisions f
bituminous stocks (Februar and yber 1957 beehive-
19 urlier figures for affected items not strictly comparable 9 Includes nonmarketable catalyst coke
averages of weekly quotations from Steet magazine); data prior to May 1957 w ill be shown later
Unless otherwise stated, statistice through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
PETROLEUM, COAL,
PETROLEUM AND PRODUCTS— Ce
Refined petroleur
Lubricant
Product
Domesti«
PULP, PAPER,
PULPWOOD AND WASTE PAPER
WOOD PULP
PAPER AND PAPER PRODU(¢
‘URRENT BUSINESS
AND PRINTING
Marcel
1959
March 1959 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of Jans | Febru- | |
BUSINESS STATISTICS er | nd March Apri
PULP, PAPER, AND PRINTING—Continued
PAPER AND PAPER PRODUCTS.-Continued
er, newsprint, and par rboard
ociation) :§
ous. of short tons
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
lo
English
per 100 It
of short tons
PRINTING
RUBBER
rIRES AND TUBES
S-38 , ‘ CURRENT BUSINESS March 1959
c
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
deacriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
G
PORTLAND CEMENT
Production, finished c«
Percent of capacity
Shipments, finished cx
Stocks, end of mont!
Finished
Clinker
CLAY PRODUCTS
Brick, unglazed (cor
Productionda
Shipment
Price, wholesale, cx
Clay sewer pipe and fit
Production
Shipment
Structural tile, ung!
Production
Shipment
GLASS AND GLASS PRODUCTS
Flat glass, nifr hipr 6s
Sheet (window
Plate and other fl
Glass container
Production
Shipments, dome
General-ise food
Narrow-neck foc
Wide-mouth food
plasse ind f
Beverage
Beer botth
Liquor ar
Medicinal
Chemical
Dairy pre
Stocks, end oft
GYPSUM AND PRODUCTS
Crude gyp
Import
Productior
ilcined, pre
EXTILE PRODUCTS
Ce
March
1959
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1956 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of Jant
BUSINESS STATISTICS | ary
March June July
1- Febru- |
ary |
April | May |
y TEXTILE PRODUCTS—Continued
|
= ) Septem
August | ber
COTTON
Cotton (exclusive of
Production
Ginnings$ thous. of running bales
Crop estimate, equivalent 500-lb. bales
thous. of bales
Consumptior bales
Stocks in the ted States, end of month,
total4 thous, of bales
Dome do
On farms a do
Public r 12, 160
Consur r 1,699
Foreigt tton, = - ‘ ’ 53
linters
2 10, 630
121
1,262
Export
Import
Prices (fa erican upland
Price c e, middling 1, average 14 markets
cents per It
516, 805
6, 418
e
4
ttor
ir thous. of bales
do
do
FACTURE
ods over 12 inches in width,
mil, of linear yd
thous. of sq. yd
do
cents per Ib
yd_.cents per yd
. do
48 x 44-48 a
cone r tubes
Co
MANMADE FIBERS AND MANUFACTURES
wool
639, 471
O86
032
738
517
728
54
449, 626
2, 276
24.9
34.6
91
45, 246 |
11,178 |
23. 26
36.4
15.1
v6
959 |
2, 341
5,043
11, 860
23.11
$729,955 600, 256
10, 661
10, 620
403
500, 932
1,812
213 2, 627
595, 408 | $613,950 767 | 647, 804
18, 410
18, 308
0,710
7 99}
1,377
101
433, 434 469, O11 211, 910
1,974 : ty 23, 400
2, 108
43, 5) 39, 100
10, 350 11, 419
22. 24
v4
l ‘
14.8
j
| October
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Janu
ary
Febru
ary
S—40 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Unless otherwise stated. statistics through |! and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1957 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS
TEXTILE PRODUCTS—Continued
WOOL AND MANUFACTURES
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
AIRCRAFT
MOTOR VEHICLES
RAILROAD EQUIPMENT
producti
Sections
General
Cormzrr
Constr
Dor
Ston:
Te -
Trans;
Advert
Agricult
Agrict
Aircraft
Airline
Alcoh«
Alcot
Alumir
Appare
Asphalt
Autom
Bakery
Balan
Bankin
Barley
Barrels a:
Batter;
Beef a
Bevers
Biast f
Blowe
Bonds
vields
Book fr
Brass
Brick
Brokers
Builc
Buildi
Busines
Business sa
Butter
Cans (
Carlos
Cattle a
Cemen
Cereal a
Chair
ort
Cheese
Cher
Cigaret
Civilia
Clay |
Coal
Cocoa
Coffe
Coke
Com:
my esphalt and far
Pages marked S
by y general subject:
yusiness
lity prices.... ....-.<sesnssssbeee
on and real estate.
ped ag -
ent and populetion
2 and glass products. 38
lucts. winidawiniinmeaaaed Gan
tation equipment
2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 38
ucts... 36
3, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 22, 40
-. 2,12, 13, 14,15
6 21
a
rporations (new), failures
3 and inventories
closures,
lves -
concrete ‘products
6, 8, 38
6, 12, 7 14,15
and 1
c sales, firms with 4 or more
res - eee eee ee
10
‘ - 27
_ 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, 19, 22, 24
6, 36
t, hours, earnings, wage rates...
and roade
uction, dollar value_.
C inden ateenwé
: (see Consumer price index
7 end manufactures
pad = meal, ofl......... peice iy
and intermediate-term___ enikhes
natural gas.
ekly and hourly
irinking places
l equip
estimates and indexes.
Service activities...
struction
United States Government... .-.
25
Iso individual | commodities). --- 21, =
ns
@reanen. ......- witwqroowamense Fe 4
activities <2 22222=22. mig,
olediel alalae,
oOo00n
QOo000anH
$s,
2,
-
9,
impute (ace also individual mm 21,
—
ese SSERSa08
is
16
Inventories, man bi ome and trade... eoeaadh
fron and steel, crude and
Leather and products. - -
Es dia aw ees -+2<smsic on a
Livestock 4 aad
INDEX TO MONTHLY BUSINESS STATISTICS, Pages S1-S40
-
12, 13, 14, 15,
SafSBiSSaaus 353
3,
2, il, 12, 13, 14, 15, 19, 40
local) and bus lines ~ame 2a 88, 14, 18, 33
Roofing and siding, asphalt
2, 3,4, 6, 12, 13, 14, 15, 22, 37
Tin
Tires and inner tubes __
Tobacco and manufactures.
3, 4, 5, 6, & 12, 18, 14, 15, 22, 30
Rug ates —...-..-
and compensation. 4
States Government bo bonds... 16,17, 18, 18, 20
United States Governmen 7
Utilities. 2, 6, 7. 11, 13, 14, 15, 19, 20, 26, 27
2, 5, 6, 22, 39, 40
ace snsilibins 33
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» STATISTICAL SUPPLEMENT
vy
UNITED STATES
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BUSINESS ECONOMICS
OS eee oe
THIS 1958 VOLUME—191 pages, conveniently indexed—is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C., as well as all Field Offices of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Price $1.00
